Over Under
- Thread starter Rebelsss
- Start date
Six wins is do-able and should be the minimum standard going forward around here!
I think we get 6 wins. Which when you consider would only be the 13th time in school history (45 years) and only second in 20 years, would be considered a successful season. At least imo. Then hopefully we can build from there and finally become a respectful football team.
My logical brain does agree with this 100%
We did get 5 wins last season, with a similarly seemingly as easy schedule. If we think we are going to be anything other than marginally better, then I can see more wins than that.
I though we had a decent defense last year and a underperforming offense given our pieces last season. Defense should be better in both personnel and coaching given the pedigree. We did lose more key offensive players, did get some intriguing players in return. But will be running an unproven offense at this level.
I think the ceiling could be pretty high, and maybe a higher floor in recent years as well, just because I think the defense will likely help keep games closer.
Should be a fun year regardless
Looking at our schedule, it's not going to be too easy to get to the 6th win. I'm not saying it can't happen, as it definitely can, but a lot of our more winnable opponents are on the road for us.
Damn some people think under 6 wins? If thats the case, then this coaching staff has failed lol imo.
In the era of the transfer portal, teams can reload very fast and I think we did enough to get at least 6. To me, Bryant, Hawaii, UNR, New Mexico, and Wyoming are sure fire wins. Yes, I understand that there are no such thing as a sure fire win but those are the games I think we win and yes I understand that history is not on our side. Thats 5. AFA, CSU, and Fresno will be tough but I think we win at least win of them and I'm kind of leaning towards 2; AFA and CSU.
We can beat UTEP too.
I'll chalk up Fresno as a loss and Michigan is obviously an L.
In the era of the transfer portal, teams can reload very fast and I think we did enough to get at least 6. To me, Bryant, Hawaii, UNR, New Mexico, and Wyoming are sure fire wins. Yes, I understand that there are no such thing as a sure fire win but those are the games I think we win and yes I understand that history is not on our side. Thats 5. AFA, CSU, and Fresno will be tough but I think we win at least win of them and I'm kind of leaning towards 2; AFA and CSU.
We can beat UTEP too.
I'll chalk up Fresno as a loss and Michigan is obviously an L.
As a homer, I'm going with 7, but if we lose 1 of those "sure fire wins", then we'd need 2 of those others just to get to 6. I don't know much about how much these teams have gained, or lost in the off season, whether through graduation, portal, etc. But I know that in the past, road games are always tough to win in the Mountain West. Hawaii is a prime example of this. Last year, they went 3-4 at home, and 0-6 on the road. UNLV went 4-2 at home and 1-5 on the road, including losses at Cal, San Jose St, SDSU, and Hawaii.
I like what the staff is doing and the guys that they're bringing in, but am just hesitant given the history of the MWC.
Our road games this year are as follows:
@Michigan (8-0 at home in 2022)
@UTEP (4-2 at home in 2022)
@UNR (1-5 at home in 2022)
@Fresno St (5-1 at home in 2022)
@New Mexico (2-4 at home in 2022
@Air Force (6-1 at home in 2022)
My early predictions
Bryant (WIN)
Michigan (LOSS)
Vanderbilt (LOSS)
@UTEP (LOSS)
Hawaii (WIN)
@Nevada (WIN)
Colorado State (WIN)
@Fresno State (LOSS)
@New Mexico (WIN)
Wyoming (WIN)
@Air Force (LOSS)
San Jose State (WIN)
That would give us 7 wins, but if we start out 1-3, some people may be getting worried.
You must have missed our game at AF two seasons ago. They stomped our dycks. I mean it was real bad. AF at their house at altitude is not going to be easy. I would be glad to be wrong but, I can't see that as a W for us.
Some folks on here kill me with their reasons for not being bowl eligible. They will endlessly explain it and to me it always sounds weak. We need to set expectations as fans and now that we have the best staff in years, it’s okay to say we can and will win out loud for every to see! BOWL ELIGIBLE THIS YEAR, GO REBELS!
I think thats a valid point but that loss has nothing to do with this staff. From what I've seen, this is the hardest practicing team I've been around. Obvi it has to translate to game play but I think Odom will have them ready. Lots of dogs on this team unlike the past teams. It'll be tough to win in that altitude but I think we have enough dogs on defense to really slow them down.
IMO, we lost in the past against AF due to lack of preparation and discipline. They're such a unique offense to play against, and you have to have a good game plan going in, then be able to execute it. Most of the time, we hardly put up any resistance to their running game. They'd run the dive over and over and just pound us for 5-10 yards every play, then periodically, break bigger plays. We did very little to stop them. And they're not tremendously oversized on the O-line. So that leads me to believe that we just didn't have a good game plan or we didn't execute it. Probably both.
As I see it:
Bryant (WIN)
Michigan (LOSS)
Vanderbilt (WIN)
@UTEP (WIN)
Hawaii (WIN)
@Nevada (WIN)
Colorado State (WIN)
@Fresno State (LOSS)
@New Mexico (WIN)
Wyoming (WIN)
@Air Force (LOSS)
San Jose State (WIN)
I am a homer and expect 9 wins but anything less than 6 wins is a failure. Odom is not starting with a 0 win team.
As I see it:
Bryant (WIN)
Michigan (LOSS)
Vanderbilt (WIN)
@UTEP (WIN)
Hawaii (WIN)
@Nevada (WIN)
Colorado State (WIN)
@Fresno State (LOSS)
@New Mexico (WIN)
Wyoming (WIN)
@Air Force (LOSS)
San Jose State (WIN)
As I see it:
Bryant (WIN)
Michigan (LOSS)
Vanderbilt (WIN)
@UTEP (WIN)
Hawaii (WIN)
@Nevada (WIN)
Colorado State (WIN)
@Fresno State (LOSS)
@New Mexico (WIN)
Wyoming (WIN)
@Air Force (LOSS)
San Jose State (WIN)
That would be amazing if things went that way. I'd be shocked if that happened, but here's to hoping!
I love your youthful enthusiasm. I've been watching Rebel football for 50 years. It's going to take me some time.
I agree with this. Just to note that the military adjusted their weight requirements to allow for larger lineman. They have a handful of guys 300 lbs. or better.
Love to see so much optimism from all.
I’m hopeful for this season but also have some reservations:
New offense and defensive system. Would love to see them pick it up right away, but not sure how fast they actually will.
Lack of depth at two key position groups has me a little worried:
- QB: if Doug goes down, who do we turn to? Friel didn’t bring much last year. Maivaia lacks experience. Edmundson
- OL: lost some key guys (and also added some). Will rely on this group to stay very healthy throughout the year.
Schedule is favorable and it’s good to see the books putting our total at 6 (meaning there is a sense of expectations). Would be awesome to build momentum from day one and make a bowl game year 1. Looking forward to see what happens.
I’m hopeful for this season but also have some reservations:
New offense and defensive system. Would love to see them pick it up right away, but not sure how fast they actually will.
Lack of depth at two key position groups has me a little worried:
- QB: if Doug goes down, who do we turn to? Friel didn’t bring much last year. Maivaia lacks experience. Edmundson
- OL: lost some key guys (and also added some). Will rely on this group to stay very healthy throughout the year.
Schedule is favorable and it’s good to see the books putting our total at 6 (meaning there is a sense of expectations). Would be awesome to build momentum from day one and make a bowl game year 1. Looking forward to see what happens.
Good post. I do agree with you about our offensive line. Hopefully they will do good. I’m really hoping for six plus wins and a bowl game.
Man, there's so much unknown about what the program will look like from here, but everyone seems to agree that "better" applies across the board.
I like these predictions, but I think Vandy and UTEP will be a split one way or the other. I like Brennan at SJSU and, while they had some big losses on their defense (Fehoko, Hall), I think he'll have them rounded into form late in the year. This one is a toss-up. I'm thinking 7 wins for us and no need for excuses or a mulligan in '24.
I'm hoping for 7, but there's so many moving parts with the new offense and defense and player turnover I'm not sure what is going to happen. If we can get 6 wins and no bad losses besides Michigan I would chalk that up as a successful season
There are valid reasons to be hesitant, even with 6 wins.
As Rebel fans we don't know what this football winning looks like. We have had one 7 win season in the past 20 years? Is that right? J-Rob's bowl season is now older than that.
New coach. New system on both sides of the ball. Offense is a gadget type offense that has not been proven higher than the low collegiate level.
But...
This is one of the easiest schedules we have seen in years. Perhaps easier than last season. Probably the easiest in conference draw that we have ever had.
UTEP went 5-7 in a 100% weaker conference last season.
Vandy is tougher than most think, it does help we get them at home.
Fresno lost their difference maker QB to the draft.
Air Force is a tough one. Not sure how much of this type of offense Odom/Scherer has seen before. Under Odom we look to be LB heavy which definitely is key for controlling the gaps. The most success we have had in my memory against this type of team was with J Rob which also had a solid LB core.
Personally I thought we underperformed last season based of personnel. We should have been better, especially on offense. We brought in a proven coach that had bowl level success in the toughest conference in the country (in the toughest division). We are using an SEC proven defense. We are paying him top money in conference, and his cupboard was not bare coming in.
So gaining at least 1 win given all of those factors is not a big of a stretch.
Surprises happen. Team break out that you weren't expected. Hopefully we are one of those teams. But an expected weak team on our schedule may also be better than expected
Personally I would not be "shocked" at winning 8 games this year, because I think the potential is there given everything. Take "UNLV" out of the equation and it would almost be expected from an outside perspective.
I don't expect it, but I can easily see it. I guess I would say I expect 7, but could see more happening.
Honest I would be shocked at 4 or less. Barring catastrophic injury of course ( don't think losing Doug would be that since chances are it will happen)
As Rebel fans we don't know what this football winning looks like. We have had one 7 win season in the past 20 years? Is that right? J-Rob's bowl season is now older than that.
New coach. New system on both sides of the ball. Offense is a gadget type offense that has not been proven higher than the low collegiate level.
But...
This is one of the easiest schedules we have seen in years. Perhaps easier than last season. Probably the easiest in conference draw that we have ever had.
UTEP went 5-7 in a 100% weaker conference last season.
Vandy is tougher than most think, it does help we get them at home.
Fresno lost their difference maker QB to the draft.
Air Force is a tough one. Not sure how much of this type of offense Odom/Scherer has seen before. Under Odom we look to be LB heavy which definitely is key for controlling the gaps. The most success we have had in my memory against this type of team was with J Rob which also had a solid LB core.
Personally I thought we underperformed last season based of personnel. We should have been better, especially on offense. We brought in a proven coach that had bowl level success in the toughest conference in the country (in the toughest division). We are using an SEC proven defense. We are paying him top money in conference, and his cupboard was not bare coming in.
So gaining at least 1 win given all of those factors is not a big of a stretch.
Surprises happen. Team break out that you weren't expected. Hopefully we are one of those teams. But an expected weak team on our schedule may also be better than expected
Personally I would not be "shocked" at winning 8 games this year, because I think the potential is there given everything. Take "UNLV" out of the equation and it would almost be expected from an outside perspective.
I don't expect it, but I can easily see it. I guess I would say I expect 7, but could see more happening.
Honest I would be shocked at 4 or less. Barring catastrophic injury of course ( don't think losing Doug would be that since chances are it will happen)
