Northern Illinois out, North Dakota St. in?

[Bullmastiff 1]

Thats interesting that the Pac 2 is going to target Sac St before they secure enough teams to have a conference. I mean i get the commitment Sac St. is selling but I dont think theyll help them fast enough. So theyre going to have to add a team that they simply do not want.

There isn't a school left that they want that they can get.

AAC/Memphis seems all but dead.

The last MWC school they wanted said no.

Hawaii would have been a really smart play for them but they turned their noses up at them.

The next addition is likely a survival choice. Nothing more.

 

[InZoneU]

We aren't getting much. up to 14 mil up front, if we get all of the poaching fees, then 1.5-1.8 above the media value. If we add a couple of nothing schools, that could drop the base media value a good amount. If we have to pay to upgrade a lower level school that could easily drop the up front money we have. So adding schools that drop value, it cost UNLV millions

Yeah I just completely disagree. I think UNLV AD has done exactly the right thing for once and pretty sure they haven't put us in a position to "lose millions'

 

[rebswin2]

There isn't a school left that they want that they can get.

AAC/Memphis seems all but dead.

The last MWC school they wanted said no.

Hawaii would have been a really smart play for them but they turned their noses up at them.

The next addition is likely a survival choice. Nothing more.

Agree, the only thing that made any sense was to create the best conference with the schools for both conferences or willing to join that weren’t part of either. Now there are two irrelevant conferences that together would be not great by any means but a lot less irrelevant than they both are.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Their TV markets may suck. But they'd be more competitive adds to the MWC than a SacSt or NMSU.

Even there NDSU might have more reach than NMSU.

Sacramento massive markets but nobody gives a damn like San Jose.

 

[dcut03]

Yeah I just completely disagree. I think UNLV AD has done exactly the right thing for once and pretty sure they haven't put us in a position to "lose millions'

This has nothing to do with our AD, we are talking about the MW adding additional schools at this point.

If we add 2 FCS schools. That will cost us 10 mil to upgrade them. So that is 10 million dollars that the MW will not have to pay us our increased share. We are not guaranteed any specific amount from our agreement from staying, it is a percentage of the available funds of the fees we are getting from the PAC.

In additional to costing the conference 10 million extra dollars it will not be able to disperse. ( Our 24.5% willl be 2.45 million), our base media value will drop per team. Any FCS team will likely be a worse media value than our worse current MW team. So that will drop our per team payout, which could easily be 1-1.5 million per year.

 

[Boston Rebel 2]

This has nothing to do with our AD, we are talking about the MW adding additional schools at this point.

If we add 2 FCS schools. That will cost us 10 mil to upgrade them. So that is 10 million dollars that the MW will not have to pay us our increased share. We are not guaranteed any specific amount from our agreement from staying, it is a percentage of the available funds of the fees we are getting from the PAC.

In additional to costing the conference 10 million extra dollars it will not be able to disperse. ( Our 24.5% willl be 2.45 million), our base media value will drop per team. Any FCS team will likely be a worse media value than our worse current MW team. So that will drop our per team payout, which could easily be 1-1.5 million per year.

Yes adding ND just waters down what we will end up getting. Adding them makes no sense I don't care how good they are.

 

[1Tripoda]

I can't remember exactly what the SBC media deal is worth, I want to say something like 1.5? Maybe 2 mil million per school?

I'd make another run at Texas State.
I think you kick the tires on Sac State as well.
You already have UTEP so no need for NMSU since they are viewed as the same market.

MWC need one more Texas school. NDSU is a good add. I dont know about Sacramento State? It is too close to San Jose. NDSU might be a better add than Boise was back then relatively to now. Might be a better program.

 

[1Tripoda]

No question marks in my comments.

 

[Rebel1986]

Yes adding ND just waters down what we will end up getting. Adding them makes no sense I don't care how good they are.

The MWC is looking out for their future not that of UNLV. The ultimate goal of UNLV is to leave the MWC for the Big12 or other, so they need to plan for their future without putting their head in the sand with the hope UNLV stays. The push for ticket sales in the second level of the next two games, and the discounted ticket deals for UNLV football season ticket holders shows they are making an all out effort to hi-light UNLV football!

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Yes adding ND just waters down what we will end up getting. Adding them makes no sense I don't care how good they are.

I kinda sort of agree.

Even though Fargo is a small market it's about the size of Las Cruces population wise. Unlike Las Cruces/NMSU NDSU likely would dominate that market and likely get some eyeballs from surrounding areas.

I'm good with it if isn't watering down the deal for remaining schools.

But to be honest, I actually don't care what any other schools in MWC make so long as UNLV continues to at least stay around current media deal.

 

[Boston Rebel 2]

The MWC is looking out for their future not that of UNLV. The ultimate goal of UNLV is to leave the MWC for the Big12 or other, so they need to plan for their future without putting their head in the sand with the hope UNLV stays. The push for ticket sales in the second level of the next two games, and the discounted ticket deals for UNLV football season ticket holders shows they are making an all out effort to hi-light UNLV football!

Yes except UNLV is a member and the MWC is supposed to act in the interest of its members. Not in the interest of the President keeping her job. This dilutes everyone’s share not just UNLV

 

[Boston Rebel 2]

I kinda sort of agree.

Even though Fargo is a small market it's about the size of Las Cruces population wise. Unlike Las Cruces/NMSU NDSU likely would dominate that market and likely get some eyeballs from surrounding areas.

I'm good with it if isn't watering down the deal for remaining schools.

But to be honest, I actually don't care what any other schools in MWC make so long as UNLV continues to at least stay around current media deal.

I think the surrounding area would have to include the entirety of the Dakotas, Montana and more to make sense in terms of a media deal.

 

[RebelinWA]

I kinda sort of agree.

Even though Fargo is a small market it's about the size of Las Cruces population wise. Unlike Las Cruces/NMSU NDSU likely would dominate that market and likely get some eyeballs from surrounding areas.

I'm good with it if isn't watering down the deal for remaining schools.

But to be honest, I actually don't care what any other schools in MWC make so long as UNLV continues to at least stay around current media deal.

No offense to San Marcos and Texas State University; but there is no comparison that NDSU is far better. NDSU has been dominant not just in their conference, but for all of FCS. They gave Colorado a scare this year.

Would they win the MW? No. But its a program with “metric” success, established loyalty, and a metropolitan area three times of San Marcos. NEITHER program moves the needle for media deal. But I’ll take the better football team.

Remember that Eastern Washinton team that beat UNLV 35-33 in 2021? That same year NDSU smashed them 42-20. NDSU is 9-4 against FBS teams, including beating 13th ranked Iowa on the road in 2016.

 

[jmcnamaraiii]

North Dakota is central time zone and your getting most of state for the TV market.

Has similar back in the day Boise vibes.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

North Dakota is central time zone and your getting most of state for the TV market.

Has similar back in the day Boise vibes.

I like this more than Tarleton. More I learn about Tarleton the more I get the interest but.

I like the idea of an established program. That has a little name recognition. NDSU fits that.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

I would rather not do a FCS team if needed, for a couple of reasons.

First, is money. We don't NEED another team right now. Any FCS team will cost 5 mil up front to upgrade, and their media value is probably worth 250K. That will drive down annual payouts quite a bit.

Competitively. there is learning curve. It will take more than a few years just to be bottom of the MW worthy. I know they think highly of themselves, and good for them. But Sam Houston struggled mightily when they made the jump. They were making FCS championship games on the reg as well.

Oh yeah, their market is tiny. So growth potential is very low.

Pass.

Northen Ill? For football only perhaps. But other than another time zone, they offer very little for a travel nightmare, especially without a travel partner.

Keep things lean. Go for St. Mary's if the PAC doesn't get them. In the future another option may come about that is a better fit.

I don't love the idea of an FCS school but 'learning curve' for NDSU would be pretty small honestly. They gave CU all they could handle this year.

Their starting 22 would be fine and extremely competitive even in the current MWC. Depth would be the issue, especially over the course of a season. Right now I think they could beat UNM, WYO, AFA, USU probably Reno and Hawaii. Could probably score an upset against the likes of CSU. 5-7 possibly a 7-5 team depending on who they drew in conference.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Apparently TV executives are for Sac St.

They like the market size and potential. What they hope for is at least Fresno type numbers. What they could get are SJSU numbers. Really hard to say.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Sounds like Tarelton is also in play with the mountain west.

Apparently there is interest from the PAC to get Sac St. now

PAC candidates rumored to be SAC State, Texas State and NMSU

SAC State has to come through with money.

Texas State could be leveraging PAC to get into AAC. Texas State would add another Texas School for AAC. Travel would be better as well in AAC vs the PAC. Of the three I think Texas State has the most upside.

NMSU would be the holy crap how did we end up here addition.

Obviously no inside info, but PAC may have been told you're getting around 8 million as is, 8th school not going to move the needle and the cost of any AAC schools is more than you want to pay.

We'll see.

I think all MWC schools are off the table and doubt there are any talks going on.

One thing I wonder is, if PAC came back to UNLV with offer to pay exit fee and full share of 8 million per year would UNLV take it?

If they did and gave up the P4 free pass, to me that would mean the BIG12 was never really in play and was simply lip service by admin to save face (to broke to make the move).

If they still stayed put then to me it would mean the BIG12 move had legs.

We'll probably never know though. (At least not through that scenario)

 

[dcut03]

NDSU has a really good record against FBS, with several P4 schools in there. I think it is 9-4

But they don't have a FBS win in 8 years.

Sam Houston didn't have as good of a record against the FBS, but they had some wins. They were also in the FCS championship race practically every year. They struggled mightily with their jump, and that was in maybe the worst conference in the FBS.

Either way, even if they were good enough to compete right away. The cost and the poor media value doesn't seem worth it right now. If we needed an 8th, then sure. But we don't need them.

 

[dcut03]

PAC candidates rumored to be SAC State, Texas State and NMSU

SAC State has to come through with money.

Texas State could be leveraging PAC to get into AAC. Texas State would add another Texas School for AAC. Travel would be better as well in AAC vs the PAC. Of the three I think Texas State has the most upside.

NMSU would be the holy crap how did we end up here addition.

Obviously no inside info, but PAC may have been told you're getting around 8 million as is, 8th school not going to move the needle and the cost of any AAC schools is more than you want to pay.

We'll see.

I think all MWC schools are off the table and doubt there are any talks going on.

One thing I wonder is, if PAC came back to UNLV with offer to pay exit fee and full share of 8 million per year would UNLV take it?

If they did and gave up the P4 free pass, to me that would mean the BIG12 was never really in play and was simply lip service by admin to save face (to broke to make the move).

If they still stayed put then to me it would mean the BIG12 move had legs.

We'll probably never know though. (At least not through that scenario)

I like to think that we made the move because there is some meat on the move to the B12 bone.

I don't think we are "too broke" to make the move. The exit fees would not be too daunting, especially if they were offering 6 mil in help like Harp said.

Industry standard is exits fees end up being the total media value for 2 years with a 2 year notice. It is often negotiated down lower than that like with OU and UT to the SEC. But that is a pretty safe assumption if you look around college football with all of the movement in the past 5 years.

That mean 11 mil in exit fees or less. 5 mil with the PAC help,. If we Pay that off over time would be much more manageable, especially with netting probably 10 mil a year with us in the PAC. Which would arguably net us more money than what we get with our current deal.

The big difference is needing capital now to extend Odom. That is the big difference. Unfortunately we need to extend Odom now and we don't get that first check until next year.

Considering ALL of that, I don't think we stay put unless there is some hope that the Big12 takes us. To me, it is the only way our decision makes any logical sense.

 

[Rebel1986]

I like to think that we made the move because there is some meat on the move to the B12 bone.

I don't think we are "too broke" to make the move. The exit fees would not be too daunting, especially if they were offering 6 mil in help like Harp said.

Industry standard is exits fees end up being the total media value for 2 years with a 2 year notice. It is often negotiated down lower than that like with OU and UT to the SEC. But that is a pretty safe assumption if you look around college football with all of the movement in the past 5 years.

That mean 11 mil in exit fees or less. 5 mil with the PAC help,. If we Pay that off over time would be much more manageable, especially with netting probably 10 mil a year with us in the PAC. Which would arguably net us more money than what we get with our current deal.

The big difference is needing capital now to extend Odom. That is the big difference. Unfortunately we need to extend Odom now and we don't get that first check until next year.

Considering ALL of that, I don't think we stay put unless there is some hope that the Big12 takes us. To me, it is the only way our decision makes any logical sense.

Not even counting additional donations with all the recently involved companies and boosters, just the additional football ticket sales are in the 3-5 million range for this season. Last year UNLV averaged roughly 23,500 per game, this year it looks like UNLV will average around 32,000 or better depending on how the last two games ticket sales go. If you take and additional 8,500 tickets per game times 6 games, you have 51,000 more tickets sold. I would guess you would have an average of around $100 per ticket when including any additional money from on stadium parking, food sales, merchandise, etc..... for around $5,000,000 minus around $1 million for any additional stadium related cost. Some of the additional money could very easily cover an increased salary for Odom and staff.

 

[dcut03]

Not even counting additional donations with all the recently involved companies and boosters, just the additional football ticket sales are in the 3-5 million range for this season. Last year UNLV averaged roughly 23,500 per game, this year it looks like UNLV will average around 32,000 or better depending on how the last two games ticket sales go. If you take and additional 8,500 tickets per game times 6 games, you have 51,000 more tickets sold. I would guess you would have an average of around $100 per ticket when including any additional money from on stadium parking, food sales, merchandise, etc..... for around $5,000,000 minus around $1 million for any additional stadium related cost. Some of the additional money could very easily cover an increased salary for Odom and staff.

Last year the football program was "in the black" for maybe the first time in 20 years. I am pretty sure that was even before the championship game and the bowl game, but don't quote me on that.

We didn't have a big paycheck game like we did against Michigan last season, but I would guess the increase in ticket sales will have us surpass the surplus from last season. We won't get the revenue from a home MW championship game, but I think it will still be better.