MWC Commish Nevarez statement on Realignment speculation

[Bullmastiff 1]

To me, who has no knowledge about TV contracts, it seems to me that if they had a deal it would have been signed and agreed to by now.

This appears to me that they have nothing concrete and don’t want to have egg on their face when a lesser deal does happen.

I think that's definitely a possibility.

I think they've gotten the numbers and they aren't happy.

If they had 15 million locked up Memphis and Tulane would have already jumped ship.

If the media deal was a solid 10-12 million UNLV likely would have jumped ship.

Sure 18 million is a lot of money to pay..But at 10 million per that's around 5 million than they were getting. You pay off that 18 million pretty quick.

I think it might be coming in between 8-10..
If it's 8 million...Holy crap Boise is going to be pissed. That's about what they get now.

 

[dcut03]

10 Million for PAC seems high. They better get that much because if it's around 8 million, Boise will have spent 15-18 million in exits fees to break even in media rights...🤣

Boise is not spending 15-18 mil in exit fees, you can count on it. These things are always negotiated down, even without lawsuits they do This situation has a lawsuit, the MW fees are well above the average compared to media value so the potential for bigger reductions seems to be even more likely.
With PAC was offering us 6 mil, what do you think the PAC will offer the biggest prize of the acquisition?
Then they will get to keep a bigger cut of their bowl money.

Again there is the base media vs total base media. Us MW fans only refer to the total base media, because our true base media package is so embarrassing low at 3.6 mil. When we talk about other conferences, both P4 and G5 alike we only talk about the true base value.
For instance we cite the CUSA as getting 750K with their deal, But they are likely getting close to a mill per team from the CFP.
The one exception may be the AAC. I think their 9 ish mil per year is after the playoff bonuses ( it was 1.4 for the MW, . think it depends on the conference).
Which also leads to the benefit of keeping a leaner conference. The CFP revenue sharing splits it amongst all of the members, fewer conference members means more to go around.
So back to main point, even if the PAC's base media contract is on the reported low end of 8 mil per school, that is still better than Boise's 5.6 base after their Boise Bonus. Though I do not know for sure if the estimated 8 is before of after CFP sharing. Based off of most reporting, mostly likely it is before.

I get it, it is fun to make fun of Boise and the other "traitors" for leaving us for another G5 which what seems to be the same money. But the more I look at it, the PAC defectors are going to get a notable pay bump, to play for a better overall conference in football and basketball, not bad.

WAZZU and OSU look to be the biggest potential losers here.

 

[Masked_rebel]

Boise is not spending 15-18 mil in exit fees, you can count on it. These things are always negotiated down, even without lawsuits they do This situation has a lawsuit, the MW fees are well above the average compared to media value so the potential for bigger reductions seems to be even more likely.
With PAC was offering us 6 mil, what do you think the PAC will offer the biggest prize of the acquisition?
Then they will get to keep a bigger cut of their bowl money.

Again there is the base media vs total base media. Us MW fans only refer to the total base media, because our true base media package is so embarrassing low at 3.6 mil. When we talk about other conferences, both P4 and G5 alike we only talk about the true base value.
For instance we cite the CUSA as getting 750K with their deal, But they are likely getting close to a mill per team from the CFP.
The one exception may be the AAC. I think their 9 ish mil per year is after the playoff bonuses ( it was 1.4 for the MW, . think it depends on the conference).
Which also leads to the benefit of keeping a leaner conference. The CFP revenue sharing splits it amongst all of the members, fewer conference members means more to go around.
So back to main point, even if the PAC's base media contract is on the reported low end of 8 mil per school, that is still better than Boise's 5.6 base after their Boise Bonus. Though I do not know for sure if the estimated 8 is before of after CFP sharing. Based off of most reporting, mostly likely it is before.

I get it, it is fun to make fun of Boise and the other "traitors" for leaving us for another G5 which what seems to be the same money. But the more I look at it, the PAC defectors are going to get a notable pay bump, to play for a better overall conference in football and basketball, not bad.

WAZZU and OSU look to be the biggest potential losers here.

Except WSU and OSU have full veto power in the conference and essentially can force decisions that benefit them over everyone else because of that. So yeah. You join what on paper is a better looking conference, you get a slight pay bump, but you essentially have no say in how your conference is run... and you join with a commissioner who is still vocally saying her job is to protect WSU and OSU interests... not the new conference, seems like an odd way to start a partnership

 

[RebelinWA]

Boise is not spending 15-18 mil in exit fees, you can count on it. These things are always negotiated down, even without lawsuits they do This situation has a lawsuit, the MW fees are well above the average compared to media value so the potential for bigger reductions seems to be even more likely.
With PAC was offering us 6 mil, what do you think the PAC will offer the biggest prize of the acquisition?
Then they will get to keep a bigger cut of their bowl money.

Again there is the base media vs total base media. Us MW fans only refer to the total base media, because our true base media package is so embarrassing low at 3.6 mil. When we talk about other conferences, both P4 and G5 alike we only talk about the true base value.
For instance we cite the CUSA as getting 750K with their deal, But they are likely getting close to a mill per team from the CFP.
The one exception may be the AAC. I think their 9 ish mil per year is after the playoff bonuses ( it was 1.4 for the MW, . think it depends on the conference).
Which also leads to the benefit of keeping a leaner conference. The CFP revenue sharing splits it amongst all of the members, fewer conference members means more to go around.
So back to main point, even if the PAC's base media contract is on the reported low end of 8 mil per school, that is still better than Boise's 5.6 base after their Boise Bonus. Though I do not know for sure if the estimated 8 is before of after CFP sharing. Based off of most reporting, mostly likely it is before.

I get it, it is fun to make fun of Boise and the other "traitors" for leaving us for another G5 which what seems to be the same money. But the more I look at it, the PAC defectors are going to get a notable pay bump, to play for a better overall conference in football and basketball, not bad.

WAZZU and OSU look to be the biggest potential losers here.

I wouldn't call WSU and OSU "potential losers". They've already lost. Making it to half of what they were making before would be a miracle.

 

[Rebel1986]

Boise is not spending 15-18 mil in exit fees, you can count on it. These things are always negotiated down, even without lawsuits they do This situation has a lawsuit, the MW fees are well above the average compared to media value so the potential for bigger reductions seems to be even more likely.
With PAC was offering us 6 mil, what do you think the PAC will offer the biggest prize of the acquisition?
Then they will get to keep a bigger cut of their bowl money.

Again there is the base media vs total base media. Us MW fans only refer to the total base media, because our true base media package is so embarrassing low at 3.6 mil. When we talk about other conferences, both P4 and G5 alike we only talk about the true base value.
For instance we cite the CUSA as getting 750K with their deal, But they are likely getting close to a mill per team from the CFP.
The one exception may be the AAC. I think their 9 ish mil per year is after the playoff bonuses ( it was 1.4 for the MW, . think it depends on the conference).
Which also leads to the benefit of keeping a leaner conference. The CFP revenue sharing splits it amongst all of the members, fewer conference members means more to go around.
So back to main point, even if the PAC's base media contract is on the reported low end of 8 mil per school, that is still better than Boise's 5.6 base after their Boise Bonus. Though I do not know for sure if the estimated 8 is before of after CFP sharing. Based off of most reporting, mostly likely it is before.

I get it, it is fun to make fun of Boise and the other "traitors" for leaving us for another G5 which what seems to be the same money. But the more I look at it, the PAC defectors are going to get a notable pay bump, to play for a better overall conference in football and basketball, not bad.

WAZZU and OSU look to be the biggest potential losers here.

They filed a lawsuit against the MWC. There is no reason for the MWC to negotiate with BSU at this point, let the courts decide. The MWC held to their deal that gave BSU additional funds over the MWC, and now BSU wants to change that deal? How about they agree to drop the fees to leave and BSU pays back all the extra funds they received plus interest?

 

[dcut03]

They filed a lawsuit against the MWC. There is no reason for the MWC to negotiate with BSU at this point, let the courts decide. The MWC held to their deal that gave BSU additional funds over the MWC, and now BSU wants to change that deal? How about they agree to drop the fees to leave and BSU pays back all the extra funds they received plus interest?

You and I both know it doesn't work that way.

Exit fees are negotiated down, lawsuits tend to negotiate them down further.

Unless some judge is salty and wants to set a new precendent, BSU is going to be in a pretty good spot.

 

[dcut03]

I wouldn't call WSU and OSU "potential losers". They've already lost. Making it to half of what they were making before would be a miracle.

Oh that is for certain.
I think 1/2 of what they were getting base is likely from their last contract. Now they had significant bonus that last year, so they are getting half of that.

But I was more talking to breaking free vs straight merging. It feels like it is going to take them a long time before they have to break even on their potential investment. Of course, that changes with how the poaching fee lawsuit goes and how much they end up helping pay exit fees.

 

[dcut03]

Except WSU and OSU have full veto power in the conference and essentially can force decisions that benefit them over everyone else because of that. So yeah. You join what on paper is a better looking conference, you get a slight pay bump, but you essentially have no say in how your conference is run... and you join with a commissioner who is still vocally saying her job is to protect WSU and OSU interests... not the new conference, seems like an odd way to start a partnership

That "slight pay bump" is anywhere between 2-4x the base media contract they are getting now.
Do you have specifics on the veto power, and is it indefinite?
I can see OSU and WAZZU keeping 100% control of any legacy war chest, which seems fair enough to me.
Also to be fair, the conference is just OSU and WAZZU right now. I'm sure her tune will change once all of this is official.

 

[Pistol Pete 1]

I keep wondering whether the traitors were offered a number that wont materialize and if not do they have an out? If so is I wonder if Gloria has been working with Fox & CBS for a potential return.
Once reality sets in it will be apparent that WSU & OSU will be no better than USU or Wyoming as far as being a revenue generator. Gloria has improved our footprint with NIU & UTEP so i dont see how the MWC numbers couldn't be equal to or greater than than the Pac's if the traitors returned especially when the exit fees are factored in.
All that's left then is to bring along Gonzaga & St Mary's.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Boise is not spending 15-18 mil in exit fees, you can count on it. These things are always negotiated down, even without lawsuits they do This situation has a lawsuit, the MW fees are well above the average compared to media value so the potential for bigger reductions seems to be even more likely.
With PAC was offering us 6 mil, what do you think the PAC will offer the biggest prize of the acquisition?
Then they will get to keep a bigger cut of their bowl money.

Again there is the base media vs total base media. Us MW fans only refer to the total base media, because our true base media package is so embarrassing low at 3.6 mil. When we talk about other conferences, both P4 and G5 alike we only talk about the true base value.
For instance we cite the CUSA as getting 750K with their deal, But they are likely getting close to a mill per team from the CFP.
The one exception may be the AAC. I think their 9 ish mil per year is after the playoff bonuses ( it was 1.4 for the MW, . think it depends on the conference).
Which also leads to the benefit of keeping a leaner conference. The CFP revenue sharing splits it amongst all of the members, fewer conference members means more to go around.
So back to main point, even if the PAC's base media contract is on the reported low end of 8 mil per school, that is still better than Boise's 5.6 base after their Boise Bonus. Though I do not know for sure if the estimated 8 is before of after CFP sharing. Based off of most reporting, mostly likely it is before.

I get it, it is fun to make fun of Boise and the other "traitors" for leaving us for another G5 which what seems to be the same money. But the more I look at it, the PAC defectors are going to get a notable pay bump, to play for a better overall conference in football and basketball, not bad.

WAZZU and OSU look to be the biggest potential losers here.

IIf the PAC media deal doesn't exceed 8 million Boise will still have paid millions to break even. Even if the exit fees are negotiated down by half. They will have paid 8-10 million for the pleasure of not having to travel Laramie and Albuquerque Albuquerque.

Fresno/SDSU/CSU/USU will be fine with that. Its a 3-4 million bump.

OSU and WSU will be in a tough spot. They have the war chest but...WSU is 100s of millions in debt. And now will be forced to operate on less than half what they were accustomed to...

 

[dcut03]

IIf the PAC media deal doesn't exceed 8 million Boise will still have paid millions to break even. Even if the exit fees are negotiated down by half. They will have paid 8-10 million for the pleasure of not having to travel Laramie and Albuquerque Albuquerque.

Fresno/SDSU/CSU/USU will be fine with that. Its a 3-4 million bump.

OSU and WSU will be in a tough spot. They have the war chest but...WSO is 100s of millions in debt. And now will be forced to operate on less than half what they were accustomed to...

Again base media deal for Boise 5.6 million vs 8.

There is no way that the PAC is not paying a huge portion of their exit fees. The offered us 6, they are giving Boise at least 8 or just paying the whole thing. They are the grand prize in all of this.

Boise did get 8 in total this year after the CFP sharing of 1.4 and the extra Mill they got from the PAC 2 scheduling agreement. But they aren't getting that next year. So you are comparing a juiced number.

If Boise's new base in the PAC is 8 then in an 8 team league, their CFP bonus would have been 2.1 mil if they existed this past season. So that is 10.1 mil per year vs 7 mil ( in 2025). apples to apples.

Then CFP payouts change every year, and they are just going to go up. So I am using this past season's numbers to compare here.

That doesn't count taking half of the bonus for making the CFP themselves. Or the bonus money individual teams get beyond the conference payout for making the CFP.

All of this with likely No exit fee cost to them, if so I can't see more than 4 mil.

Still seems like a pretty good deal for them.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Again base media deal for Boise 5.6 million vs 8.

There is no way that the PAC is not paying a huge portion of their exit fees. The offered us 6, they are giving Boise at least 8 or just paying the whole thing. They are the grand prize in all of this.

Boise did get 8 in total this year after the CFP sharing of 1.4 and the extra Mill they got from the PAC 2 scheduling agreement. But they aren't getting that next year. So you are comparing a juiced number.

If Boise's new base in the PAC is 8 then in an 8 team league, their CFP bonus would have been 2.1 mil if they existed this past season. So that is 10.1 mil per year vs 7 mil ( in 2025). apples to apples.

Then CFP payouts change every year, and they are just going to go up. So I am using this past season's numbers to compare here.

That doesn't count taking half of the bonus for making the CFP themselves. Or the bonus money individual teams get beyond the conference payout for making the CFP.

All of this with likely No exit fee cost to them, if so I can't see more than 4 mil.

Still seems like a pretty good deal for them.

You're also not calculating rebranding. Whatever Boise and company may get covered by the PAC they still have to rebrand everything. Uniforms, fields, etc etc..So Boise is still going to be shelling out a ton of money and potentially breaking about even on media deal.

USU paid their own way.

I've seen nothing concrete anywhere that the PAC paid any of the exit fees.

The PAC absolutely needs this deal to be around 10 million.

 

[Rebel1986]

You and I both know it doesn't work that way.

Exit fees are negotiated down, lawsuits tend to negotiate them down further.

Unless some judge is salty and wants to set a new precendent, BSU is going to be in a pretty good spot.

I have been involved in a lot of developments where lawsuits were involved, and many times if you are willing to play hardball, you win!

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

I have been involved in a lot of developments where lawsuits were involved, and many times if you are willing to play hardball, you win!

MWC can afford to drag this out as long as they like. It ties up funds the PAC needs.

 

[Rebel1986]

MWC can afford to drag this out as long as they like. It ties up funds the PAC needs.

Exactly my feeling! If things were going great for the PAC, they would have the last team they need, but now they are stuck picking from what is left and willing to join the PAC, which appears to be slim pickings!

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Exactly my feeling! If things were going great for the PAC, they would have the last team they need, but now they are stuck picking from what is left and willing to join the PAC, which appears to be slim pickings!

I'm not going to pretend that if the MWC added Texas State I would have been upset. Opposite actually. Grabbing them and Utep getting two Texas markets (however small) and adding an extra time zone for media deal would have been solid.

But...

Texas State was never on the PACs radar until now. Why? Because they swung and missed on Memphis and Tulane and the rest of the AAC.

The PAC doesn't want Texas State, they need Texas State. If Texas State said no, they would be down to NMSU. Not knocking NMSU, I figured it would be them and Utep initially for MWC. But it's a long way from rebuilding the PAC into a power conference with Memphis/Tulane/USF/UTSA to scrambling to find an eight member in Texas State by June because if you don't the clock runs out and the PAC dies again (before it even got started).