Marion taking UNR’s best RB
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I do not believe the school would count towards the numbers for the PAC, and I also think that while they may or may not do well on recruiting, in regards to value, they would reduce the media contract value per school most likely being the least valuable school in the PAC.
I didn't say their next addition or only addition.
Sacramento is a large market. There's some value in that.
Based on market and school size, Grand Canyon is worth at least 3-5X the value of Sac State. While Grand Canyon doesn't currently have football, they have a boat load of cash and could easily start up a program within the next couple of years. If they add Sac State, I would expect/guess it would lose between $500,000-700,000 in media value per school from whatever the current value is per school.
Who's arguing that? And that's a little optimistic as a non football school.
Technically they are FBS now lol. Somewhat of a loophole.
I am not sure if they were to be added it would count as a member or not. I know they have a bowl ban, but they will be a full fledged FBS school by '27.
I dont think it was a coincidence, but i can see it being a possible future add and maybe current fallback option. Only if they would count as a 8th member
At this point who knows what the rules are.
Also keep an eye out.
I think MWC makes another addition in the next few months. Possibly multiple.
I think NDSU is very much being considered.
Hypothetical for you here.
You're the MWC commish.
Your current media valuation gets you to an average distribution of 4 million per school.
Adding NDSU you're media rights package distributions remain unchanged staying at 4 million.
You can also add South Dakota State, Montana, Montana State but the average distribution would drop to 3.5..
Would you stay put at just NDSU?
Or
Add all four?
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Everyone of those schools individually drops the median value, adding all four will drop it significantly.
They may have UNLV and everyone else by the balls, so they could add all of them and we may not be able to do anything about it.
Previously they did say that the target for this next contract would be us making the same as before, but they also said that it may include the bonus money from the PAC. So technically the base media value could be less than the 3.6 we are getting currently.
Money isn't the only important thing with conference building. But the PAC certainly seem to be trying to maximize payouts, while the MW does not seem to care about that much. With the cost of business and investment being more important than ever, it feels like the MW's approach isn't the best approach. But we will see.
Individually I don't believe NDSU would. NDSU despite small market size probably every bit as valuable as Wyoiming or shockingly enough SJSU. (SJSU's viewership is horrible. When coupled with the size of the Bay area and what's considered their 'market' it's pathetic).
As a collective I agree it likely becomes diminishing returns.
I don't think the MWC approach is bad. I think it's all they can lure at this point.
I'm still not sure how the NIU thing went down or what prompted that move.
If we wanted to create a better and more competitive FB (and probably BB) conference, the MW should have added both Dakota's and both Montana's and called it a day. It's not like we're going to add any program that's going to move the needle on TV #s.
Agreed. I don't think they would hurt any media deal all that much. Small market size obviously, but you would absolutely own those markets. Which is just as valuable as a large market with very few people watching. (SJSU)
NDSU is good. Like really good. Gave CU all they could handle on the road.
They could hang with anybody in the MWC and PAC.
Montana State beat beat New Mexico at UNM this past season.
The gap between the remnants of the MWC and those four schools is pretty minute. If there is one at all.
No other FCS making the jump has been worth >750k.
Sam Houston was almost as good as NDSU, in Texas no less, they struggled to make the transition, though have been good the last couple of years. But still a Sun Belt add.
We just have not seen a FCS school make the jump to a conference other than the bottom of the FBS before. It's hard to believe any school would be able to out perform that. Or at least assume that they would.
Even if your Comp in Wyoming. is probably below the mean in the MW. And they have a more established program in terms of FBS and is really the only school in the state. Also is close proximity to more populace states that probably feed their alumni base. But if they are worth what Wyoming is worth, then that will likely reduce the mean value.
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Again comparing them to our worst teams in media value isn't a good thing. At least not monetarily.
From a competitive standpoint? Maybe. We did lose most of our best teams.
But expecting any team from FCS to come in and compete in any FBS league is a tough thing to expect. It is has only happened a handful of times in the past.
Case in point. We beat Vandy last year, that doesn't mean we would hang in the SEC.
The difference between hi-level FCS and low level FBS is superfluous.
Thats not what I did. I compared them to our largest market to make the point small market size can't be discounted.
NDSU can definitely compete with anybody in either conference. They have guys getting drafted pretty regularly.
You taking UNM to go better than .500 against those 4 schools?
How about Hawaii?
Reno?
Wyoming?
The gap between the G5 / MWC and the SEC is larger than the gap between those four schools and the current MWC.
NDSU would have finished above .500 if they were in the MWC and been bowl eligible. Unlike everyone remaining in the MWC not named UNLV and SJSU.
Is there a lot of conjecture here? I don't believe the Montana schools even want to be FBS. In 2010 the WAC approached both schools about the jump. Both administrations passed on the idea primarily due to cost. More recently there has been a load of posting about the possibility of a jump. Some want it. But surprisingly, to me at least, there is quite a bit of fan resistance. The fear is they would seldom be in contention for the G5 spot in the football Natty while they are both in the running for the FCS Natty every year. They seem to be content with their place in the order of things.
True of Montana schools.
NDSU though? They have nothing left to prove at FCS level. They've expressed interest in moving up.
It was reported back in January that the Mountain west and NDSU had entered communication. Don’t know if there was ever an official offer, but the interest sounded mutual.
@Bullmastiff 1 Just for the sake of argument, North Dakota State's game in week 8 drew the same number of viewership of 174k as UNLV vs Fresno State in week 5. They did it on ESPNU too, we had FS1.
They also drew more in their bowl game than we did. V Cal we had 1.48m on ESPN. They had 1.58m on ABC vs South Dakota State.
I'm not counting NDSU's game vs Colorado. They didn't draw the 4.76m that ESPN reported.
Also, attendance matters. No media company wants to show empty stadiums.
They also drew more in their bowl game than we did. V Cal we had 1.48m on ESPN. They had 1.58m on ABC vs South Dakota State.
I'm not counting NDSU's game vs Colorado. They didn't draw the 4.76m that ESPN reported.
Also, attendance matters. No media company wants to show empty stadiums.
| School | Average attendance for 2024 | Capacity % | Notes |
| Fresno State | 40,600 | 98.95% | |
| Boise State | 37,235 | 102.33% | |
| Oregon State | 35,799 | 100.71% | |
| Colorado State | 33,082 | 80.30% | |
| UNLV | 32,203 | 49.54% | Our year to year capacity increase of 53.61% is top in FBS. |
| Air Force | 26,226 | 66.49% | *Cadets are forced to go |
| Montana | 25,845 | 102.49 | *This is higher than Memphis, Tulane, and UTSA. |
| San Diego State | 24,770 | 70.77% | |
| Washington State | 22,413 | 69.50% | |
| Wyoming | 21,937 | 75.18% | |
| Montana St. | 21,899 | 123.19 | |
| UTEP | 19,393 | 41.55% | Their home opener was 41,633. This has potential if there is success. |
| South Dakota State | 18,504 | 95.68 | |
| reno | 17,419 | 64.52% | |
| Utah State | 16,992 | 66.60% | |
| North Dakota State | 16,789 | 89.78 | *Attendance down due to apathy about beating the same opponents |
| San Jose State | 16,058 | 87.92% | |
| New Mexico | 16,001 | 40.79% | |
| Hawaii | 12,963 | 76.66% |
| Northern Illinois | 12,162 | 53.45% | |
| UC Davis | 12,108 | 112% | Stadium is nearly at capacity, they are an FCS program. |
Hawaii really doesn't count until they finish their new stadium which is currently scheduled for some time in 2028. They averaged around 25K+ before the old stadium was forced to shut down. Just in the last couple of years they expanded their temporary stadium from around 9,000 the first year, to 15,000, and then they just finished expanding to 17,000 in the middle of 2024. Each season they have added more fans back, but have not yet caught up to the seat additions during 2024.
Air Force has a total of 4,000 students.
My expectation is the UTEP fan support will take a significant jump when playing in the MWC.
I expect Oregon State will slowly drop in crowd support. Currently they have some decent home and home games that had been scheduled prior to the old PAC following apart. It will be a lot harder to get the better teams to play home and home now that they are in a revised PAC.
Everything else you wrote make sense.
You are correct that the media do not want to see empty stadiums, but in the case of UNLV, they have worked to fill in the first level then the second, so the crowds now look great on TV! I believe their is a very good chance that UNLV will be at or near the top in attendance of the teams listed above.
Air Force has a total of 4,000 students.
My expectation is the UTEP fan support will take a significant jump when playing in the MWC.
I expect Oregon State will slowly drop in crowd support. Currently they have some decent home and home games that had been scheduled prior to the old PAC following apart. It will be a lot harder to get the better teams to play home and home now that they are in a revised PAC.
Everything else you wrote make sense.
You are correct that the media do not want to see empty stadiums, but in the case of UNLV, they have worked to fill in the first level then the second, so the crowds now look great on TV! I believe their is a very good chance that UNLV will be at or near the top in attendance of the teams listed above.
Cadets at academies are required to attend games. So AFA attendance numbers are inflated to some degree.
You validated their inclusion by saying they could be as valuable as two of our worst media markets. Did you not? That's not how to raise media value.
NDSU has been good, and they could make a smooth transition, but history says that it a they would likely be a middle to bottom lower FBS team.
Now the MW is full of those to your point, but do we want to add more of those?
Sam Houston was in the same spot as NDSU. Regular FCS contender. Their first season in the SUN BELT they went 3-9.
NDSU has played 3 games against FBS opponents. in the past 10 years. All P4 schools, went 1-2 with mostly close games. But it's not like they have "Proven" themselves. The last win was 9 years ago.
So adding ANY FCS team is a gamble. Adding 4? kinda crazy. Especially when you consider the 5 mil per team price tag.
There is no program that the MWC can add that will add considerable media value. So might as well add the programs that will at least be competitive and make the conference better, competition wise.
The SDSU/ NDSU was on ESPN2, not ESPNU. HUGE difference. Still good numbers, though it was a bottom 3 watched game on ESPN2 that year, out of like 50+ games if I remember correctly. I looked it up weeks ago and don't want to go through the trouble to doing it again.
This is true, but.
Each team comes with a 5 mil price tag. Could they afford that themselves? I doubt completely. 24.5% of every dollar the MW spends beyond what they are spending now will be taking directly from UNLV's bonus money, which is likely going to be drastically reduced from what they told us initially even without adding these schoos.
But the logic that we can't improve our media value, so lets just go tank it further? I just don't follow that.
And there is the history that the vast majority of teams moving up, with the vast majority of those teams being top FCS teams, tend to struggle with the transition. All have joined conferences objectively worse than the MW, even the next iteration of the MW ( though we are getting closer to the likes of the Sun Belt and the CUSA now).
I don't think the MW adds these schools now. I can totally see them do this if UNLV can break the GOR and go to the PAC, with AFA likely following suit to the AAC. But why now?
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I guess one last thing to add, NIU’s numbers swung wildly. They went from 18.6k against Toledo on a Saturday to 6800 on a Tuesday. All of the Tuesday night Maction games start at 7-730pm est. that time slot is rough,
