I get it, but most, if not all of the argument for UNLV going to the PAC are centered around the “long term”. So now you have to define “long term”.
Let’s call the next 2.5 years as short term and everything after that as long term.
In the short term, UNLV will make more money than any of the other MW or PAC schools. How much remains to be seen, but even if it gets settled to half, it’s gonna be a large amount of new money. Add to that NOT losing money by leaving and it’s a HUGE difference. On the low side it’s a difference of at bare minimum $15-$18 million difference.
Is the PAC media contract going to be $5mil more per year? I doubt it, but if it is then you’ve cost yourself an extra $35 million minus $15-$18 mill over the course of 7 years… $17-$20 million, so $2.5-$3 mill per year.
So to me that’s the worst you could do over the course of the next 7 years. I don’t necessarily see that as a HUGE mistake but maybe some will, which is fair.
But that also assumes that everything else in the college football world stays static, and no one believes it will. That’s also only factoring dollars statically as well.
Cash NOW is way more important than longer term and it would take a full 4 years or more before the dollars catch up and start to cost.
Flexibility in the short term is also huge. Going to the PAC would have handcuffed UNLV to not just be able to leave, but to be able to continue to build a product worthy of being invited to leave.
Who knows what dominoes are going to fall, but they are sure as hell going to be falling in the next couple years. I’d rather be in position to be able to take advantage of those moves. Worst case is we’d end up in the PAC in 8 years.
Ultimately I will say I like the idea to stay, even if it is a long shot. Getting into the P4 should be the priority period. It is the only long term solution to make things really help the program.
But I have a few exceptions a couple of your points.
2.5 years is the short term, with that gets held up with no reductions, expect UNLV to get the maximum amount promised them in the lump sum, which is 14 million.
This is from UNLV after the initial announcement of the MOR, before any lawsuits.
"According to a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed by President Whitfield, the Mountain West will pay an estimated lump sum of $10-to-14 million to UNLV in 2025, and also pay UNLV approximately $1.5-to-1.8 million annually over a six-year period beginning in July 2026. The new payments are on top of the current revenue streams from existing contracts and media assets. The current media deal expires in June 2026 and negotiations for a new media deal will begin in the near future. The university will also have the flexibility to explore future membership in an autonomous “Power Four” conference without penalty should the opportunity become available. "
If the poaching fee lawsuit gets reduced then that lump sum will also reduce.
Then it is an extra 1.5-1.8 over just 6 years. Not great.
Given recent moves I think the base PAC deal will easily be double the base MW deal. if they get 10 we get 5, if they get 12, we may still get 5.
Exit fees will be negotiated like they always do. Until realignment happens and this doesn't occur (hasn't yet) then we should not be expecting the full values.
Given how egregious our fees are compared to the media value, hard to say what they get knocked down to. Less egregious fees have been reduced to 50% Just look at the PAC last year.
A lot of the numbers seem to be equivalent to roughly the value of 2 years of the base contract. Next season our base value is 5 mil since we don't have the scheduling agreement with the PAC 2. So I think a safe estimate is 11 mil per school. Though it could easily be less. If the poaching fees do hold up, I think it will be used against the MW in negotiations.
The promised money is all "estimated". Mostly because the conference does not have a war chest of millions of dollars to spend. It is estimated because fees are not set in stone their value, and there are potential costs with adding additional schools. Do we have to help with exit fees, or FCS to FBS fees? The extra 1.5-1.8 could easily be reduced if negotiated fees are lower than the MW estimated and/or there are higher costs with expansion than anticipated.
So if the the poaching fees hold up, that gives us a 10-14 mil head start, but we would be losing out on 3- 5 mil a year after that.
If we were to take the offer, which included 6 mil in exit fees from the PAC. We would be looking at likely 5 mil in exit fees for us. If we decided to play that over time than that is just 2 mil a year for 3 years. It does take long to pay that off.
I agree having money up front for UNLV is a factor we had to extend Odom or find a top notch replacement which we did, and we likely have to find a basketball coach as well.
I just don't think it would have taken long at all to make up the difference from the move.
The bad part to the MOR is a commitment until 2032. So I am not sure if that language does anything to raise our exit fees or hurt our negotiations with exit fees if we decide to join the PAC later. Which is totally an option, and I can see it happening down the road still. But I still think we ultimately would lose money joining the PAC later than now.
But joining the PAC all but shuts the door on the Big12. At least it feels that way. So that is why I like the decision to stay.
