It's all G5....

[RebelinWA]

Year after next will we be a G5 program?

Maybe not if a small minority of people at Disney/ Espn/ the big12 president get their way. That minority will grow if we continue winning. UNLV to the big12 does 3 things that haven’t been discussed yet.

1. It weakens CBS’s MW line up and makes it way less profitable. CBS is already struggling here.

2. It strengthens an offering ESPN has that is distinctly behind the SEC, and Big10.

3. It increases the gap between the Big12 and the ACC.

 

[WarthogRebel]

Maybe not if a small minority of people at Disney/ Espn/ the big12 president get their way. That minority will grow if we continue winning. UNLV to the big12 does 3 things that haven’t been discussed yet.

1. It weakens CBS’s MW line up and makes it way less profitable. CBS is already struggling here.

2. It strengthens an offering ESPN has that is distinctly behind the SEC, and Big10.

3. It increases the gap between the Big12 and the ACC.

The G5 currently is considered.

• American Athletic Conference (AAC)
• Conference USA (CUSA)
• Mid-American Conference (MAC)
• Mountain West Conference (MW)
• Sun Belt Conference (SBC)

I believe B 12 is a pipe dream. I meant the PAC will replace us and I was concerned we would drop below the Sun Belt or MAC. The MAC gets $ 2.5 mil per school and their deal gets re- negotiated in two years. I don't believe we will get more than $ 3 mil per school. G5 is probably a meaningless term, and getting more so each year as we fall further and further behind. But it's interesting to consider.

 

[RebelinWA]

The G5 currently is considered.

• American Athletic Conference (AAC)
• Conference USA (CUSA)
• Mid-American Conference (MAC)
• Mountain West Conference (MW)
• Sun Belt Conference (SBC)

I believe B 12 is a pipe dream. I meant the the PAC will replace us and I was concerned we would drop below the Sun Belt or MAC.

We might.

 

[oneepstein]

G5 was only G5 because there was a “P5”. Now there is an A4 and everyone else is G6, except Notre Dame.

Objectively, of the remaining G6, I’d say the MW easily would rank third behind the AAC and the new PAC.

The PAC though isn’t even a conference yet, and whoever they add isn’t going to make that conference better. Oh, they’ll polish the hell outta the turd, but it won’t change perception. Add to that the fact that they’ll be at the bare minimum of teams and there are just less opportunities for your teams to go out into the non conference and bring back quality wins to boost SOS scores.

Is it still going to be a better conference than the MW? Yes. They’ll be behind the AAC though and have basically pigeon holed themselves into a regional conference with most of their teams in a single time zone.

The long term may work out for them, but it won’t take much to change that depending on what happens over the next few years.

 

[dcut03]

G5 was only G5 because there was a “P5”. Now there is an A4 and everyone else is G6, except Notre Dame.

Objectively, of the remaining G6, I’d say the MW easily would rank third behind the AAC and the new PAC.

The PAC though isn’t even a conference yet, and whoever they add isn’t going to make that conference better. Oh, they’ll polish the hell outta the turd, but it won’t change perception. Add to that the fact that they’ll be at the bare minimum of teams and there are just less opportunities for your teams to go out into the non conference and bring back quality wins to boost SOS scores.

Is it still going to be a better conference than the MW? Yes. They’ll be behind the AAC though and have basically pigeon holed themselves into a regional conference with most of their teams in a single time zone.

The long term may work out for them, but it won’t take much to change that depending on what happens over the next few years.

PAC will be solid top to bottom.
You know Utah State with Bronco will be good.
SDSU has a ton of potential to be good. Boise is Boise and Fresno is going to be at least solid every year. CSU is the question mark really, but there is potential there too.
OSU and WAZZU are also question marks. But again much better potential there vs a UTEP or a UNM for example. Depends on how they weather this offseason.
Not a lot of fat there. Their 8th member most likely will be that. But you can get away with that.
Top to bottom I think the PAC will be the best G6. AAC is pretty good at the top but have a lot of fat these days too. The MW will look like an A5 Japanese Wagyu ribeye

 

[Meister_Rebel]

The MW isn't out of the woods yet. If the PaC prevails in the lawsuits and there is no money to pay us as agreed upon then what?

 

[j. spilotro]

The MW isn't out of the woods yet. If the PaC prevails in the lawsuits and there is no money to pay us as agreed upon then what?

All they have to do is throw a million at the judge and then they’ll get their way, they’ll be happy, judge will be happy, judge will get caught … slap on the wrist … being corrupt is fashionable and fully acceptable now.

 

[oneepstein]

PAC will be solid top to bottom.
You know Utah State with Bronco will be good.
SDSU has a ton of potential to be good. Boise is Boise and Fresno is going to be at least solid every year. CSU is the question mark really, but there is potential there too.
OSU and WAZZU are also question marks. But again much better potential there vs a UTEP or a UNM for example. Depends on how they weather this offseason.
Not a lot of fat there. Their 8th member most likely will be that. But you can get away with that.
Top to bottom I think the PAC will be the best G6. AAC is pretty good at the top but have a lot of fat these days too. The MW will look like an A5 Japanese Wagyu ribeye

The only “known” year in and year out is Boise State… and their off season hasn’t even started yet. I suspect that they’ll find a way, because they always seem to, but fortunes can change quickly.

Everyone else in the conference has “potential” to be decent in any given season, but not by that much more.

If you look at the last 4 years of conference play it’s been reasonably dominant performances by the defector 5 compared to the remaining members… they’ve won roughly 61% of their games compared to 42% (thanks UNR and New Mexico). But over the last 2 years the gap has closed… they’ve won roughly defectors have averaged 4 wins and the remaining members have averaged 3.5 wins. CSU is the only one of them to have improved their win totals over the last two years, Boise has stayed the same, and the other three have declined.

As far as how OSU and WSU go? Who knows, but I would suspect them to usually be in the upper half at least initially.

Still better than the MW for sure, but aside from Boise there’s not a lot that you can count on.

And when they add whatever turd they have to add they’re gonna take a hit AND they’re barely going to be a conference. The AAC will have WAY more opportunities to bring back quality wins and East coast media bias is going to play a HUGE role in how those teams are perceived.

 

[oneepstein]

All they have to do is throw a million at the judge and then they’ll get their way, they’ll be happy, judge will be happy, judge will get caught … slap on the wrist … being corrupt is fashionable and fully acceptable now.

To my knowledge none of these lawsuits have ever gone to judgement. You think the SEC or BIG 10 is going to allow a Colorado judge to rule against these sorts of conference bylaws?

 

[utestream]

All they have to do is throw a million at the judge and then they’ll get their way, they’ll be happy, judge will be happy, judge will get caught … slap on the wrist … being corrupt is fashionable and fully acceptable now.

The PAC whatever is not the SEC. They will be challenged to throw a few bucks at the cafeteria inside the court. I have no insider knowledge. It was rumored than San Diego State declined the Big 12 due to a proposed reduced payout. Short sighted move. Meanwhile, UNLV remained in a weaker conference to stabilize its finances and receive a get out of jail free card for the Big 12. The following schools have the potential to move to a P4 conference: UNLV, Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, Boise, SDSU, Fresno, CSU, USF, UConn, WSU, OrSU. I am not a gambler, but UNLV is probably the
best bet for a current school able to be selected to join the Big12 and financially afford a reduced Big 12 payout. Will it work?Who knows! However, I would have made the same decision as UNLV. They bet on themselves and doubled down.

 

[InZoneU]

The only “known” year in and year out is Boise State… and their off season hasn’t even started yet. I suspect that they’ll find a way, because they always seem to, but fortunes can change quickly.

Everyone else in the conference has “potential” to be decent in any given season, but not by that much more.

If you look at the last 4 years of conference play it’s been reasonably dominant performances by the defector 5 compared to the remaining members… they’ve won roughly 61% of their games compared to 42% (thanks UNR and New Mexico). But over the last 2 years the gap has closed… they’ve won roughly defectors have averaged 4 wins and the remaining members have averaged 3.5 wins. CSU is the only one of them to have improved their win totals over the last two years, Boise has stayed the same, and the other three have declined.

As far as how OSU and WSU go? Who knows, but I would suspect them to usually be in the upper half at least initially.

Still better than the MW for sure, but aside from Boise there’s not a lot that you can count on.

And when they add whatever turd they have to add they’re gonna take a hit AND they’re barely going to be a conference. The AAC will have WAY more opportunities to bring back quality wins and East coast media bias is going to play a HUGE role in how those teams are perceived.

Yeah the bedwetting over not being in the PAC is weird. It's like people don't realize that nobody in the midwest, south or east see a huge difference in playing Fresno or New Mexico. They don't. Like some east coast media pollster is going to dock UNLV massively for not playing in the PAC instead of the MWC. It's frankly, laughable.

 

[utestream]

Yeah the bedwetting over not being in the PAC is weird. It's like people don't realize that nobody in the midwest, south or east see a huge difference in playing Fresno or New Mexico. They don't. Like some east coast media pollster is going to dock UNLV massively for not playing in the PAC instead of the MWC. It's frankly, laughable.

On the MWC, it was a brilliant move to add UC Davis. If they get NIU, I think the MWC should try to add Liberty University.

 

[RebelinWA]

On the MWC, it was a brilliant move to add UC Davis. If they get NIU, I think the MWC should try to add Liberty University.

We'd have to get a travel partner for Liberty. It would be nice if we could get USF to jump, but I don't think that's realistic.

 

[dcut03]

Yeah the bedwetting over not being in the PAC is weird. It's like people don't realize that nobody in the midwest, south or east see a huge difference in playing Fresno or New Mexico. They don't. Like some east coast media pollster is going to dock UNLV massively for not playing in the PAC instead of the MWC. It's frankly, laughable.

SOS is SOS.
Computers can tell the difference between Austin or Laramie either.

SDSU has been a top3 MW team historically. To think that they are going to be a perpetual bottom feeders given everything they have is pretty short sighted.

When it comes for that coveted playoff spot SOS will matter. We may have to play 6 90+ teams. Thr PAC may have 1 or 2. That makes a ridiculous difference.

The AAC was hurt by their SOS this year despite their records. UNLV this season looked better in comparison

Again it is G5. But there will be a difference. In both competition and payout.

Oh money does matter. Huge gap for everyone not in the P4. But there is a difference between maybe 5 a year vs 10+.

Oh yeah say goodbye to our NCAAT credits once the legacy payouts run out.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Year after next will we be a G5 program?

Unfortunately I think so.

Until I'm sitting in Manhattan Kansas in a road trip for a conference game between UNLV and Kansas State I'm not buying that we're in the mix.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

The G5 currently is considered.

• American Athletic Conference (AAC)
• Conference USA (CUSA)
• Mid-American Conference (MAC)
• Mountain West Conference (MW)
• Sun Belt Conference (SBC)

I believe B 12 is a pipe dream. I meant the PAC will replace us and I was concerned we would drop below the Sun Belt or MAC. The MAC gets $ 2.5 mil per school and their deal gets re- negotiated in two years. I don't believe we will get more than $ 3 mil per school. G5 is probably a meaningless term, and getting more so each year as we fall further and further behind. But it's interesting to consider.

The PAC will just be G6. The powers that be aren't handing out anymore auto bids by recognizing them as a power conference.

They'll be battling the other 'Group of' conferences for the same bid.

 

[oneepstein]

Yeah the bedwetting over not being in the PAC is weird. It's like people don't realize that nobody in the midwest, south or east see a huge difference in playing Fresno or New Mexico. They don't. Like some east coast media pollster is going to dock UNLV massively for not playing in the PAC instead of the MWC. It's frankly, laughable.

I get it, but most, if not all of the argument for UNLV going to the PAC are centered around the “long term”. So now you have to define “long term”.

Let’s call the next 2.5 years as short term and everything after that as long term.

In the short term, UNLV will make more money than any of the other MW or PAC schools. How much remains to be seen, but even if it gets settled to half, it’s gonna be a large amount of new money. Add to that NOT losing money by leaving and it’s a HUGE difference. On the low side it’s a difference of at bare minimum $15-$18 million difference.

Is the PAC media contract going to be $5mil more per year? I doubt it, but if it is then you’ve cost yourself an extra $35 million minus $15-$18 mill over the course of 7 years… $17-$20 million, so $2.5-$3 mill per year.

So to me that’s the worst you could do over the course of the next 7 years. I don’t necessarily see that as a HUGE mistake but maybe some will, which is fair.

But that also assumes that everything else in the college football world stays static, and no one believes it will. That’s also only factoring dollars statically as well.

Cash NOW is way more important than longer term and it would take a full 4 years or more before the dollars catch up and start to cost.

Flexibility in the short term is also huge. Going to the PAC would have handcuffed UNLV to not just be able to leave, but to be able to continue to build a product worthy of being invited to leave.

Who knows what dominoes are going to fall, but they are sure as hell going to be falling in the next couple years. I’d rather be in position to be able to take advantage of those moves. Worst case is we’d end up in the PAC in 8 years.

 

[Rebel1986]

SOS is SOS.
Computers can tell the difference between Austin or Laramie either.

SDSU has been a top3 MW team historically. To think that they are going to be a perpetual bottom feeders given everything they have is pretty short sighted.

When it comes for that coveted playoff spot SOS will matter. We may have to play 6 90+ teams. Thr PAC may have 1 or 2. That makes a ridiculous difference.

The AAC was hurt by their SOS this year despite their records. UNLV this season looked better in comparison

Again it is G5. But there will be a difference. In both competition and payout.

Oh money does matter. Huge gap for everyone not in the P4. But there is a difference between maybe 5 a year vs 10+.

Oh yeah say goodbye to our NCAAT credits once the legacy payouts run out.

The only reason that the AAC wasn't in front of the MWC was due to BSU having a very high rating due to the one game played verse Oregon. Remove BSU and the rest of the MWC didn't do anything. When the MWC breaks to the PAC, they will have BSU and a bunch of SCRUBS (sorry, pun intended!). Depending on being able to get NIU and one other team from back east, I do not believe there will be that noticeable of a difference between the MWC and the PAC on a national level. The bottom line is that UNLV must be as good as they were this year or better. As for BSU, remove the wins over UNLV, and they didn't beat a single team ranked in the top 40.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Yeah the bedwetting over not being in the PAC is weird. It's like people don't realize that nobody in the midwest, south or east see a huge difference in playing Fresno or New Mexico. They don't. Like some east coast media pollster is going to dock UNLV massively for not playing in the PAC instead of the MWC. It's frankly, laughable.

OOC is a wash between between UNLV and Boise State. Both go 3-1...Vs similiar competition.


You cannot seriously think that when it comes time for the CFP committee rankings that UNLV is getting the nod over Boise playing the new MWC schedule vs the PAC schedule.

It's not just football. look at basketball and tell me the new MWC is more than a 2 bid league.

 

[Rebel1986]

OOC is a wash between between UNLV and Boise State. Both go 3-1...Vs similiar competition.


You cannot seriously think that when it comes time for the CFP committee rankings that UNLV is getting the nod over Boise playing the new MWC schedule vs the PAC schedule.

Outside of UNLV and BSU, there isn't a single team in the PAC or MWC that would move the needle at all. The only thing that will matter is the out of conference schedule. If UNLV can in the future have a schedule similar to this season, then I believe they will get the nod over BSU 9 out of 10 times in the future with a similar record. The only thing that moved the needle at all for BSU this season was the Oregon game and the two games verse UNLV.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Outside of UNLV and BSU, there isn't a single team in the PAC or MWC that would move the needle at all. The only thing that will matter is the out of conference schedule. If UNLV can in the future have a schedule similar to this season, then I believe they will get the nod over BSU 9 out of 10 times in the future with a similar record. The only thing that moved the needle at all for BSU this season was the Oregon game and the two games verse UNLV.

How?

Look at current MWC/PAC lineup.

Exclude UNLV and Boise State.

Every single coaching job is available. Pays the same everywhere.

Start listing the most attractive jobs and where you think you would have the best opportunity to win immediately and tell me how far down the list you get before you reach a MWC school.

Second point if UNLV and Boise had similiar OOC schedules and the results were the same. And then both ran the table in their respective conferences there is no way in any universe UNLV gets the nod over Boise State.

I just can't see it.

I'd take

Fresno, SDSU, CSU, OSU, WSU jobs before any MWC job.

I have to get all the way down to USU job before I might consider taking a MWC job.

In all likelihood the PAC media deal will be 3-5 million more per year than the MWC deal (possibly more) They took some of the largest markets and historically best programs in the conference. That alone over a three to 5 year period gives them an edge over MWC schools going forward.

We've had recent success and we're pointed in a good direction, but let's not pretend SDSU and Fresno's runs are ancient history and they can't bounce back. USU was bowl eligible pretty regularly. CSU won a bunch of games this year. WSU was bowl eligible this year.

 

[Masked_rebel]

How?

Look at current MWC/PAC lineup.

Exclude UNLV and Boise State.

Every single coaching job is available. Pays the same everywhere.

Start listing the most attractive jobs and where you think you would have the best opportunity to win immediately and tell me how far down the list you get before you reach a MWC school.

Second point if UNLV and Boise had similiar OOC schedules and the results were the same. And then both ran the table in their respective conferences there is no way in any universe UNLV gets the nod over Boise State.

I just can't see it.

I'd take

Fresno, SDSU, CSU, OSU, WSU jobs before any MWC job.

I have to get all the way down to USU job before I might consider taking a MWC job.

In all likelihood the PAC media deal will be 3-5 million more per year than the MWC deal (possibly more) They took some of the largest markets and historically best programs in the conference. That alone over a three to 5 year period gives them an edge over MWC schools going forward.

We've had recent success and we're pointed in a good direction, but let's not pretend SDSU and Fresno's runs are ancient history and they can't bounce back. USU was bowl eligible pretty regularly. CSU won a bunch of games this year. WSU was bowl eligible this year.

This is where perception and reality mix...
CSU had 1 good season under McElwain, was then 7-6 3 straight seasons and has been a mid-tier to bottom tier MWC team since. Historically, We'd look at them and go "sure would be nice to go bowling" but its not like they're a powerhouse some people are giving them credit for. Frankly outside Boise, every other MWC program has a similar pedigree, with ours coming more recently. Most have 1 era where they win an average amount of games, make a few bowls, maybe have 1 good season and then drop off the map. Fresno has had a little bit more longer sustained success with solid hires after Hill, but SDSU was terrible outside a season with Brady Hoke and a handful of seasons under Rocky Long. Utah St has had really bad years and some decent seasons, and then in between a mixed bag of results. That's pretty much true of WSU and OSU as well.
So our success is recent yes, but we are making huge investments in the program to hopefully sustain the winning that our "flash in the pan" seasons created. These other schools were not able to do so and WSU will probably regress back into this similar cycle, especially with their former coach absolutely torching the programs perception since departing for WF... Outside maybe Utah St. hiring Bronco which might make Boise a little worried starting in 2026, every program across both conferences have failed to parlay their success into anything more than a few good seasons here and there in between some bad ones. And dont argue "attendance and markets.." there are definitely better places as college towns that encourages attendance even with bad teams than Las Vegas Im looking at records and perceptions. that's why the whole "Pac 12 is better then the MWC" argument is ridiculous because each side is projecting strength through mediocrity with 1 brand carrying the flag for each...
******basketball is a different conversation- not relevant to football conversation*****

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

This is where perception and reality mix...
CSU had 1 good season under McElwain, was then 7-6 3 straight seasons and has been a mid-tier to bottom tier MWC team since. Historically, We'd look at them and go "sure would be nice to go bowling" but its not like they're a powerhouse some people are giving them credit for. Frankly outside Boise, every other MWC program has a similar pedigree, with ours coming more recently. Most have 1 era where they win an average amount of games, make a few bowls, maybe have 1 good season and then drop off the map. Fresno has had a little bit more longer sustained success with solid hires after Hill, but SDSU was terrible outside a season with Brady Hoke and a handful of seasons under Rocky Long. Utah St has had really bad years and some decent seasons, and then in between a mixed bag of results. That's pretty much true of WSU and OSU as well.
So our success is recent yes, but we are making huge investments in the program to hopefully sustain the winning that our "flash in the pan" seasons created. These other schools were not able to do so and WSU will probably regress back into this similar cycle, especially with their former coach absolutely torching the programs perception since departing for WF... Outside maybe Utah St. hiring Bronco which might make Boise a little worried starting in 2026, every program across both conferences have failed to parlay their success into anything more than a few good seasons here and there in between some bad ones. And dont argue "attendance and markets.." there are definitely better places as college towns that encourages attendance even with bad teams than Las Vegas Im looking at records and perceptions. that's why the whole "Pac 12 is better then the MWC" argument is ridiculous because each side is projecting strength through mediocrity with 1 brand carrying the flag for each...
******basketball is a different conversation- not relevant to football conversation*****

Recency bias is also a thing and people go SDSU is trash based on a few down years.

They also were right there with Boise not so long ago.

I'm not suggesting the gap between PAC/MWC is this massive void but it does exist.

It's simple question.

All jobs between PAC and MWC outside of Boise State and UNLV are open. You have your proverbial pick of the litter as a HC. They all want your services. The pays the same etc.

Start listing what jobs you would take based on potential in order and see how long your list is before you name your first MWC school.