The MW seems to be throwing around a lot of promised money. NIU gets an incentive bonus for joining the MW plus the MW is paying for their exit fee from the MAC. They are also paying the exit fee for UC-Davis. I don't know about UTEP or GCU.
Some other stuff I saw recently:
UC-Davis also gets a First Right of Consideration if the MW decides to bring in any FCS football program. It doesn't guarantee them the MW would accept them but, why wouldn't they. For basketball Davis has agreed to minimum annual increases in spending for that sport. They also get less payouts for NCAA tourney units for the conference but, after six year they would be a full share units member. They can shorten that six years if they make it to an NCAA Tourney. The MW really broke it down to what they will earn however, the actual dollar amounts are unknown as the contracts have a lot of that information redacted. Same goes with NIU.
All of this bonus money is tied to lawsuits.
And a good chunk if not majority of the money the MW has promised to our new member are also tied to that same pot of money.
There is some wiggle room in the maximum possible money (which is almost 0% likely to happen at this point), and the minimum amount they need to make good on their promises to the legacy members. But that margin gets thrown out the window if the poaching fees get reduced, especially if it is thrown out.
I think the primary hearing could say a lot, if the poaching lawsuit is dismissed, the MW is in pretty good shape, if it seems to give some creditability to the PAC whatsoever, you can almost guarantee that the total pot of the poaching fees will at best gets marginally reduced, at worst thrown out completely.
If the MW cannot make good on their financial incentives with the GOR. I'm not sure if UNLV can get out within any additional penalty legally. It seems to me that they would have a very good argument if so. I'm sure the other exit fee situation will remain the same as the other schools that are leaving.
I am very skeptical that this 2026 media contract will be very good. The basketball additions do not add much, if anything they detract at this point, and I really don't think that NIU does anything but meet the mean. Some people are acting that NIU own Chicago, but that is a huge stretch.
I think the MW could get around the same as before, which is a base contract of 3.6 from the media partners alone. Which seems to be the target based off of what the MW has been saying. That isn't great. If the PAC gets a 8 mil base that is a pretty big head start. Even if it is 6.
I think UNLV staying put has everything to do with the poaching fees and lawsuit. if it holds up completely 10-14 mill up front is still a nice equalizer especially given the exit fees.
But if that gets cut in half even? 5-7 mil. Is not much. If the PAC is still willing to give us 6 mil, the break even point could easily be as little as 3 years. IF the poaching fees are thrown out, that break even point could be immediate. or close to it.
There have been multiple exit fees have been 50-65% of a 2 year base media value. That is around 6 mil.
