Estimate for MWC media deal
- Thread starter bcvegaspt2
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I'm not sure about this guys credibility..
But.
If MWC is getting 6 million per with teams like UNM and Reno and SJSU who do awful (and when I say awful I mean like God awful TV ratings) The PAC could legitimately be looking at 12-15 million a year in comparison.
Which absolutely sucks for us in terms of keeping pace over time. An extra 6 million dollars a year is nothing to scoff at. Within two years that 10 million we got up front is basically nullified.
I would be surprised if the PAC even gets 10 million per year let alone anywhere near 12 million. Washington State and Oregon State are quickly going downhill and are financially stressed which has included cutting their budget in half, and it appears Washington State isn't even going to give out their full allotment of football scholarships next year. If they were looking at a nice TV contract, do you think they would be in desperation mode?
Looking at these numbers, I think this is without including NIU. The question is will games in the early time zone at NIU help to increase the TV deal per school or decrease the deal?
6 million per
BIG schools get what $65-$70 million each?
The gap will continue to get larger
BIG schools get what $65-$70 million each?
The gap will continue to get larger
We got this.
Thats a given. My greater point was did UNLV potentially turn down a better long term investment vs quick cash up front. It's one thing to be getting hammered on TV revenue by P4 schools. It's completely different thing to be potentially getting doubled up by other G6 schools.
No, UNLV decided to get cash and be the alpha conference member for a few years then head to the Big 12 at no expense
If that is what ends up happening it was the absolute right call. And I'll be as happy as anybody here. I'll relish in telling SDSU and Boise and the rest of the PAC where they can stick their metrics.
But if we are still in the MWC in five years.
That's exactly what happened..UNLV took the short quick money.
Yes IF it happens, I have my doubts. If that was happening near term Odom would be more likely to stay and us more likely to give him $6MM. I think we will look back on this as a huge blunder the Big 12 certainly doesn’t look anxious to add more teams and even if we do our cut will probably be little above as we get now for several years.
If you get in the Big 12 at a reduced but still reasonable cut, you take it. Your stadium would sell out almost every game.
UNLV's decision was a gamble from a city of gambling. I would have done the same thing. Just win, be entertaining, market, and schedule the best you can.
That guy Fletcher used that $6 million amount back on Oct 3rd. Two days after we picked up UTEP so there has to be a few more dollars with adding NIU. We will be getting the extra $1.5 - $1.8 per years starting in 2026 for 6 years. Perfect timing as that is when our contract would expire and the B12 contract expires. So even at that nuts $6 million add at least $1.5. Then if you want to break down that $10 million we got upfront over 5 years we will still be looking at close to $10 million per year total. Then we get the B12 invite and we will be sitting pretty without any exit fee. It's worth the gamble.
All we have to do is keeping winning and get into bowl games.
All we have to do is keeping winning and get into bowl games.
Playing in the Big12 would bring in at least another $3-5 million in ticket sales along with a much higher visibility on a national stage including better TV games and a much better bowl game. It would also increase sales of merchandise as well as bring in a much larger amount of corporate sponsorship
As you know, UNLV also would be able to transfer to a P4 conference and not pay an exit fee. That also adds into the equation.
The math is a little wonky.
48÷9 is 5.3 per. Not everyone is getting a full share, but I can see that the 2 non football members with the 1 football only lyrics equals out.
Now that number is boosted at about a mil extra per team from the CFP scraps that we get
So I guess this evens out.
But like bull said. If we are getting 6, the PAC will be easily get 10 or even more. I have seen 14 floated as a number after they hired Octagon, which could be where they are per team right now. The next team probably drops that significantly, but it can still be well above 10.
We are getting g 6 not because we have maintained value it is simply inflation.
48÷9 is 5.3 per. Not everyone is getting a full share, but I can see that the 2 non football members with the 1 football only lyrics equals out.
Now that number is boosted at about a mil extra per team from the CFP scraps that we get
So I guess this evens out.
But like bull said. If we are getting 6, the PAC will be easily get 10 or even more. I have seen 14 floated as a number after they hired Octagon, which could be where they are per team right now. The next team probably drops that significantly, but it can still be well above 10.
We are getting g 6 not because we have maintained value it is simply inflation.
I get that.
And I agree.
In BIG12 in 5 years great move.
If stuck in MWC making half PAC media deal..Not so much.
Alot depends on the outcome of the lawsuits and the media deals. If we can get in front of the Pac in terms of who is providing the contract and the $, the conference will look good. At this point, it's getting pretty late for the Pac to get 8 full members without paying a huge exit fee for someone. If they end up not paying their fees, then we probably move to join the Pac to get them their 8, but they'll offer us assistance to get there. Ultimately I'm not sure what the Pac is doing because they're on a really tight timeline before they cease to exist
Oh I agree I just don’t think it is happening any time soon and if it does happen it will be far in the future at a reduced rate that going to the PAC and then switching will have made more sense.
If B 12 isn't a reality in 5 years it really won't make much difference. The major conferences will have ALL the top athletes. With Media $$ along with full stadiums the P4 will be able to give boatloads of $$ to their athletes through revenue sharing that has just started. The cap will grow to $ 30 million per program per year. ( Not including NIL ) It has to be shared to ALL athletes in the University but NOT equally. It's expected that the majority of the funds will go to men's football and basketball. You could give $ 10 mil to spots other than BB and Football and that would leave around $ 150,000 base salary for every player on those primary teams. Few P4 players would be able to afford to go in the portal for anything other than another P4 slot. And few players in G5 would even consider staying if they were good enough to jump up.
All this does is accelerate the distance between the P4 and all the rest. You can argue we'll become more irrelevant that FCS is currently.
That’s assuming the PAC deal ends up twice as much. A lot of things need to play out before we know whether or not UNLV made the right move. Also don’t know the details of the PAC invite. Was it a full share? Not to mention that I’m not sure how UNLV would have been able to come up with the $17m exit fee and make the commitment to the football program they made with Dan Mullen. If the choice was between middle PAC budget and say Rolovich as HC or top of conference budget and Mullen, it is a very easy choice for me.
I said a couple of months ago that based on what was left out there after we added GCU, UTEP and Hawaii that we’d be $5-7m. This is tracking.
The Pac isn’t worth $12+m, but my own estimate might be a bit too conservative. I estimated $6-8m; but depending on that last add, $9m could make sense. It depends on if they go tech company, or trad media. The tech companies MIGHT subsidize a bit more, but those viewership numbers are going to be awful.
The Pac isn’t worth $12+m, but my own estimate might be a bit too conservative. I estimated $6-8m; but depending on that last add, $9m could make sense. It depends on if they go tech company, or trad media. The tech companies MIGHT subsidize a bit more, but those viewership numbers are going to be awful.
It is wonky because it doesn't include NIU, since they have not as of yet agreed to join the conference.
I think people underestimate how bad some athletic departments are run, Wazzu hired an FCS coach on the cheap, still slashing scholarships, Boise has NIL issues, Colorado State and Utah State don’t want to pay penalties and exit fees. No media deal in sight, Memphis laughed off the pacs offer etc.
Osu, Sdsu, Csu, Fsu, and especially Wsu all carry more athletic debt than UNLV. That’s without the realignment fees. Their package deal would have to be $12m+ to be worth it for the MW schools. Osu and Wsu need to be north of $20m
UNLV just needs to keep improving and growing the program, remain one of the top G5s in the country, and be one of the most attractive options for a P4 invite if any are made. Everything else will work itself out. And if it doesn’t happen there will still be options in the G6 outside of the MW. Nothing remains static. Things will change over time and the G6 conferences will still want to compete to be the best of the G6s. As long as we keep moving the program forward UNLV will have options in any scenario. I like where we are now. We have things rolling, we’re able to raise $$, and despite our (relatively small) debt we have the cash to bring in top coaches. No way we’d have had the cash to hire CDM if we leveraged ourselves to accept the PAC invite. We’d be hoping that a mid-level coach could keep the momentum going. No, I much prefer where we sit today. We are the masters of our own destiny, at least for the things we can control.
Boise St is also trying to fund a 300 million dollar renovation of their football stadium that actually reduces seating and makes it look more like a mid-major venue than a college football power... these schools started spending money like they hit the lottery and reality is they don't have anything solid.
Your numbers seem reasonable.
We don't know yet the specifics of the NIU MW payout. I don't know if they would get a full share.
It looks like NIU's current payout in the MAC was $670,000 per year. UTEP's current payout from CUSA was $750,000. Even if NIU gets $5 million annually from the MW they would come out ahead. Both schools imo have made a good decision in terms of financial benefit.
If UNLV gets that $7 million in media payout as you think that might be the case and then you add the bonus of $1.5 million we would be sitting at about $8.5 million. So, if the pac gets that $9 million we will be okay for those 6 years in our new media contract. After, the media contract expires in 2032 we will have to revaluate where we need to be.
Exactly this.
In all of the “arguments” we’ve had on here surrounding UNLVs decision, both sides are factoring in assumptions of unknowns and “ifs”.
There’s just way too much we don’t know and way too much to still play out. We may never know the full truth about the why.
I personally don’t believe UNLV REALLY had any option.
If you put both options/offers on paper, there were WAY more unknowns by going to the new PAC and WAY more “knowns” by staying in the MW. The “gamble” wasn’t staying, it was joining the PAC.
The best case that would have gotten us closer to 7m would have been adding Niu and Toledo as football only and on a partial share.
UTEP has a lot of potential, they just need to win.
UC Davis was an interesting choice. They have a small but expandable stadium, if they decide to bring up their football. They just finished their own $50m football facility 2 years ago.
UC Davis also has a large alumni base that is 3x larger than Boise and double of UNLV’s. In fact, they would be second to only Sdsu in alumni size compared to everyone in the new pac.
They had an reported 12,000 for their last home game. We had a reported 4,000.
They are complaining and we are grateful that many showed up.
I guess they also do big time inflation of the number of people in their arena. They have 12,600 total seats, and I can easily see more than 600 empty seats just in that area. I was curious and looked at the video of the SDSU v BSU game that they said was sold out, and there were thousands of empty seats. Obviously sold or already allocated seats are counted whether they show up or not.
Thats the question I have. Does UNLV get that 1.5 million regardless of next media deal or was that only if the next media deal fell bellow current and would be a way to compensate UNLV the shortfall?
I’ve heard it both ways, but I haven’t found the actual verbiage or contract.
What I understood was that the exit fees from the traitors would cover our "signing bonus" for staying in the MW. It doesn't have anything to do with the next media deal. Payment to us was in two parts. An initial amount which is about 50% of the total signing bonus would be paid in 2025. The other 50% would be paid during the next media contract "cycle" of 6 years. That isn't tied to the next media contract it's just when it will be paid to us. The true dollar amount of the signing bonus is going to be decided in the courts with the exit fee lawsuits filed.
The "poaching fees" would have been evenly divided by each remaining school in the conference except maybe Hawaii as they weren't full members. But, I'm not sure about Hawaii.
With the lawsuits we won't know until then how much money we will actually get. If it isn't enough with what the MW was promising then we may be headed to the Pac. Honestly, I don't know what we would do.
Yes please. FYI, Highlights from a long interview a couple days ago with WSU's AD, included:
- Budgeting for 105 FB schollies (complete turnaround for the now-seeming dubious report about dropping them to 79
- An alleged $1M enhancement for assistant salaries. Of which so far all of whom are from FCS
- Expansion talks are NOT being pursued until the Pac gets their media deal. Apparently the Pac was waiting for all the Pac and future Pac Bowl victories, especially BSU's tear through the playoffs, to get the media salivating
