Big impact games this weekend

[Rebel1986]

Wyoming v CSU at CSU - CSU is a 9.5 point favorite. Hope to see Wyoming play above themselves. CSU has had enough luck to put up the points they needed for conference games, now hopefully they have some bad luck. Wyoming has had bad luck most of the year, I hope to see that turn around for at least one game!

Kansas v byu at byu. - Not much confidence in a top 10 team considering they are only a 2.5 point favorite at home verse Kansas. Everything has gone right for byu winning several close games that should have been loses, while Kansas has found a way to collapse in the second half for most of the season. byu could have easily been 5-4 instead of 9-0. They are due a loss very soon based on how they have looked over the last month. A Kansas win would look really good for UNLV overall ratings.

Houston v Arizona at Arizona. Arizona is a 1 point favorite at home. This could get Houston back to 5-5 with a winning conference record. Would be a good win for UNLV.

 

[LVRebel2000]

Let's go Wyoming!

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Wyoming v CSU at CSU - CSU is a 9.5 point favorite. Hope to see Wyoming play above themselves. CSU has had enough luck to put up the points they needed for conference games, now hopefully they have some bad luck. Wyoming has had bad luck most of the year, I hope to see that turn around for at least one game!

Kansas v byu at byu. - Not much confidence in a top 10 team considering they are only a 2.5 point favorite at home verse Kansas. Everything has gone right for byu winning several close games that should have been loses, while Kansas has found a way to collapse in the second half for most of the season. byu could have easily been 5-4 instead of 9-0. They are due a loss very soon based on how they have looked over the last month. A Kansas win would look really good for UNLV overall ratings.

Houston v Arizona at Arizona. Arizona is a 1 point favorite at home. This could get Houston back to 5-5 with a winning conference record. Would be a good win for UNLV.

Kansas is better than record would indicate for sure.

Houston's defense is really good. Their offense is equally bad.

Be great if both got to bowl eligibility.

 

[saulpaul21]

Why no talk of san jose vs Boise? San Jose can really throw it. Blew the game early in the season vs wash st that they had in the bag.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Why no talk of san jose vs Boise? San Jose can really throw it. Blew the game early in the season vs wash st that they had in the bag.

Big game for sure. Rebs almost need Boise to win though. If Boise loses, Rebs would need them to drop a second game unless CSU also dropped 2.

(Assuming Rebs handle their business).

Plus would rather have Boise top 10ish in title game if Rebs get there.

Boise loses to SJSU, they might drop down to the 20s.

 

[Boston Rebel 2]

Kansas is better than record would indicate for sure.

Houston's defense is really good. Their offense is equally bad.

Be great if both got to bowl eligibility.

And we put up the second most points on Houston’s D? If they beat AZ that definitely puts more shine on our win.

 

[Rebel1986]

Why no talk of san jose vs Boise? San Jose can really throw it. Blew the game early in the season vs wash st that they had in the bag.

BSU losing a game could put UNLV out of any chance to get to the bowl championship game since UNLV lost to BSU. I do not want to take any chance with a tie breaker! IF BSU lost and CSU only loses one game, then UNLV would be out.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

BSU losing a game could put UNLV out of any chance to get to the bowl championship game since UNLV lost to BSU. I do not want to take any chance with a tie breaker! IF BSU lost and CSU only loses one game, then UNLV would be out.

In that scenario UNLV would get in over CSU for conference title game. Especially if CSU loss is to Fresno.

I think.

Maybe.

 

[lvrebalum2012]

In that scenario UNLV would get in over CSU for conference title game. Especially if CSU loss is to Fresno.

I think.

Maybe.

Yeah, I don’t see how we don’t get in over CSU if we end up tied…..

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Yeah, I don’t see how we don’t get in over CSU if we end up tied…..

Yeah if we're being honest SJSU probably deserved it last year since they beat us H2H.

 

[Rebelsss]

We’ll blow SDSU out. Like we did in 2013.

 

[reagan21]

I can't believe I'm going to purposefully sit down and watch Wyoming vs. CSU on a Friday night. Let's go, Pokes.

 

[Rebel1986]

I can't believe I'm going to purposefully sit down and watch Wyoming vs. CSU on a Friday night. Let's go, Pokes.

10 minutes and the game is all but over!

 

[j. spilotro]

SJSU got “screwed” last season, this year it’ll be UNLV.

luck of the draw.

 

[Rebel1986]

SJSU got “screwed” last season, this year it’ll be UNLV.

luck of the draw.

It looks more and more like CSU is peaking at the right time to win out, but still hope for FSU and Utah State. Even if they play their best and get to the MWC against BSU, my expectation is they lose by 30+

 

[LocoRebel]

It looks more and more like CSU is peaking at the right time to win out, but still hope for FSU and Utah State. Even if they play their best and get to the MWC against BSU, my expectation is they lose by 30+

Whils I don't disagree they are peaking at the right time, I also think they have benefitted from a Charmin schedule. Their winning streak started with SJSU. Then AFA, UNM, UNR, and Wyo.

Those are literally the 4 worst teams in the conference.

Boise could beat them by 50 if they needed to.

 

[j. spilotro]

Whils I don't disagree they are peaking at the right time, I also think they have benefitted from a Charmin schedule. Their winning streak started with SJSU. Then AFA, UNM, UNR, and Wyo.

Those are literally the 4 worst teams in the conference.

Boise could beat them by 50 if they needed to.

No doubt. Both UNLV and Boise would crush CSU. But we were able to avoid Boise last year, lost head to head vs SJSU, but we got the championship against Boise because of the way it unfolded.

I mean, we aren’t used to considering potential scenarios when the football schedule comes out, we haven’t experienced enough success to dissect a schedule in the preseason. We’ve typically done that with basketball in the past.

I’m sure we will all look more closely at it next season.

 

[bcvegaspt2]

No doubt. Both UNLV and Boise would crush CSU. But we were able to avoid Boise last year, lost head to head vs SJSU, but we got the championship against Boise because of the way it unfolded.

I mean, we aren’t used to considering potential scenarios when the football schedule comes out, we haven’t experienced enough success to dissect a schedule in the preseason. We’ve typically done that with basketball in the past.

I’m sure we will all look more closely at it next season.

By September I was already thinking about basketball.

 

[LocoRebel]

No doubt. Both UNLV and Boise would crush CSU. But we were able to avoid Boise last year, lost head to head vs SJSU, but we got the championship against Boise because of the way it unfolded.

I mean, we aren’t used to considering potential scenarios when the football schedule comes out, we haven’t experienced enough success to dissect a schedule in the preseason. We’ve typically done that with basketball in the past.

I’m sure we will all look more closely at it next season.

Last year the round robin of bsu vs sjsu vs unlv was incomplete, though 2 of the 3 permutations occurred. It was a little different, where this year CSU plays neither of the top 2 teams.

SJSU didn't get in because the computers didn't favor them. And it went that way because 3 teams were tied for 2 spots, rather than 2 teams tied for 1 spot.


In 2023, 3-team 6-2 tie for forst, incomplete round robin, none ranked in CFP rankings. Computers had unlv 1, bsu 2, and sjsu 3, despite UNLV losing to SJSU. If SJSU had won bigger, probably would have knocked UNLV out.

That said - 2024, unlv and csu dont play head to head. So if CSU loses 1 and UNLV wins out, 2 team tie for the right to play at BSU (assuming BSU wins out). Neither CSU nor UNLV likely to be in CFP which is next tie breaker. 3rd tie breaker is overall winning percentage, which would give UNLV the nod

 

[j. spilotro]

Last year the round robin of bsu vs sjsu vs unlv was incomplete, though 2 of the 3 permutations occurred. It was a little different, where this year CSU plays neither of the top 2 teams.

SJSU didn't get in because the computers didn't favor them. And it went that way because 3 teams were tied for 2 spots, rather than 2 teams tied for 1 spot.


In 2023, 3-team 6-2 tie for forst, incomplete round robin, none ranked in CFP rankings. Computers had unlv 1, bsu 2, and sjsu 3, despite UNLV losing to SJSU. If SJSU had won bigger, probably would have knocked UNLV out.

That said - 2024, unlv and csu dont play head to head. So if CSU loses 1 and UNLV wins out, 2 team tie for the right to play at BSU (assuming BSU wins out). Neither CSU nor UNLV likely to be in CFP which is next tie breaker. 3rd tie breaker is overall winning percentage, which would give UNLV the nod

I guess what I’m saying is neither is cut and dry …. A viable position can be taken as a snub or screw job in either case.

 

[LocoRebel]

I guess what I’m saying is neither is cut and dry …. A viable position can be taken as a snub or screw job in either case.

Fair enough!

All these conference doing away with conference championship games in favor of getting the best two teams (which I understand) has created this terrible system where nobody plays anybody. It sucks in MWC. But it really sucks in the 32 team SEC and Big Ten 😶😶😶

 

[Rebel1986]

Whils I don't disagree they are peaking at the right time, I also think they have benefitted from a Charmin schedule. Their winning streak started with SJSU. Then AFA, UNM, UNR, and Wyo.

Those are literally the 4 worst teams in the conference.

Boise could beat them by 50 if they needed to.

You are mixing the words, but really writing the same thing I wrote. I have no doubt that BSU will blow them out.

 

[LocoRebel]

You are mixing the words, but really writing the same thing I wrote. I have no doubt that BSU will blow them out.

My biggest point was supposed to be that Fresno playing poorly is still better than their last 4 or maybe 5 opponents. I never circle back around to it 🤣

 

[Boston Rebel 2]

My biggest point was supposed to be that Fresno playing poorly is still better than their last 4 or maybe 5 opponents. I never circle back around to it 🤣

Maybe the motivation of knocking them out will help Fresno. We should have someone hack the CSU players social media accounts and start insulting the FSU players Moms.

 

[dcut03]

Csu has 3 losses, and would have a 4th if we ended up tying for 2nd in the mw (and we win out) I can't see any scenario where they would be picked ahead of us in the MW championship game

 

[LocoRebel]

Csu has 3 losses, and would have a 4th if we ended up tying for 2nd in the mw (and we win out) I can't see any scenario where they would be picked ahead of us in the MW championship game

https://storage.googleapis.com/themw-com/2024/09/fb1b0563-2024-mw-football-championship-tiebreakers-final.pdf

Straight from the MWC: https://themw.com/football-championship/