A Lot can change but..

[dcut03]

If CSU gets to the MWC championship, there is almost zero chance UNLV goes to the playoffs. With the assumption BSU gets to the MWC championship game, even a bad loss to CSU wouldn't drop them below UNLV.

It isn't almost, it is a zero chance.

The Auto G5 spot has to be a conference champion. Which is why we would get the nod over Boise if we beat them, regardless of head to head resumes.

The only other way is to get an at large. which would mean us being ranked basically in the top 10. That isn't happening with going 4-0 the rest of the way. So if CSU gets in the Champ game, we are out.

Time to root against CSU!

 

[Pistol Pete 1]

It isn't almost, it is a zero chance.

The Auto G5 spot has to be a conference champion. Which is why we would get the nod over Boise if we beat them, regardless of head to head resumes.

The only other way is to get an at large. which would mean us being ranked basically in the top 10. That isn't happening with going 4-0 the rest of the way. So if CSU gets in the Champ game, we are out.

Time to root against CSU!

I rooted against them the other day. It didn't work. My next play will be a money line bet on CSU and that should get them a loss.

 

[Rebel1986]

It isn't almost, it is a zero chance.

The Auto G5 spot has to be a conference champion. Which is why we would get the nod over Boise if we beat them, regardless of head to head resumes.

The only other way is to get an at large. which would mean us being ranked basically in the top 10. That isn't happening with going 4-0 the rest of the way. So if CSU gets in the Champ game, we are out.

Time to root against CSU!

While it is near impossible for UNLV without getting to the MWC championship, I always leave that little bit of room by saying almost impossible.

 

[Rebel1986]

I rooted against them the other day. It didn't work. My next play will be a money line bet on CSU and that should get them a loss.

The target must be on the back of CSU - Need that one loss for UNLV to go to the MWC championship game. If so many said it would be really hard for UNLV to beat BSU twice, wouldn't the reverse also be true? Also BSU doesn't have that extra week plus one day of practice advantage over UNLV if they meet again!

 

[Masked_rebel]

Exactly. There is also a weird scenario like what if BSU, UNLV and CSU all go unbeaten from here on out and CSU gets in the CCG game. Yet UNLV and Boise could be ranked #1 and #2 in the G5 if that happens. Could get dicey.

If CSU gets to the MWC championship, there is almost zero chance UNLV goes to the playoffs. With the assumption BSU gets to the MWC championship game, even a bad loss to CSU wouldn't drop them below UNLV.

If that scenario happens, not a single MWC will be in the playoff. CSU doesnt have the schedule to be high enough ranked over the AAC champion and probably even Liberty at 1 loss... So Boise wont be a G5 conference champion, and neither would we and thats the first qualifier.
The dicey part happens when CSU somehow makes it undefeated in conference play by avoiding the top 2 teams in the conference, one who has a 5 point loss to the other. That's where there will be a lot of conversation on the unbalanced conference schedule and how fair is it that CSU didnt play either top team and UNLV only had 1 loss to Boise... Thats where the conversation will be because everyone wants to see that rematch, not Boise stomping CSU by 40 at home.

 

[dcut03]

The target must be on the back of CSU - Need that one loss for UNLV to go to the MWC championship game. If so many said it would be really hard for UNLV to beat BSU twice, wouldn't the reverse also be true? Also BSU doesn't have that extra week plus one day of practice advantage over UNLV if they meet again!

It could be a blessing in disguise.

We want to win every game, but...

I really don't know if beating Boise twice at home is more difficult than splitting them and winning on the road for the CG.

Of course it hurts our playoff chances with a split with Boise vs sweeping them, but by beating them once when they would likely be ranked pretty high could be considered better?

From looking at the Sagarin rankings, at least we are sitting decently pretty right now.

 

[dcut03]

If that scenario happens, not a single MWC will be in the playoff. CSU doesnt have the schedule to be high enough ranked over the AAC champion and probably even Liberty at 1 loss... So Boise wont be a G5 conference champion, and neither would we and thats the first qualifier.
The dicey part happens when CSU somehow makes it undefeated in conference play by avoiding the top 2 teams in the conference, one who has a 5 point loss to the other. That's where there will be a lot of conversation on the unbalanced conference schedule and how fair is it that CSU didnt play either top team and UNLV only had 1 loss to Boise... Thats where the conversation will be because everyone wants to see that rematch, not Boise stomping CSU by 40 at home.

I don't understand the initial premise of this.

If CSU makes the championship game and somehow wins it, then you are right. We likely don't have a team in the playoff.

But if they play Boise, which is very very likely, and Boise wins, then they are practically a lock for the playoffs.

I think Liberty has already been eliminated. You don't lose to arguably the worst team in FBS and still get in. Especially when the rest of your schedule is full of the fluffiest of marshmallows

If CSU wins out including the Championship game. They are in the discussion. The win again Boise actually helps them quite a bit. But I think the winner of the AAC likely gets the nod, depending on how the rest of the season shakes out.

 

[InZoneU]

It could be a blessing in disguise.

We want to win every game, but...

I really don't know if beating Boise twice at home is more difficult than splitting them and winning on the road for the CG.

Of course it hurts our playoff chances with a split with Boise vs sweeping them, but by beating them once when they would likely be ranked pretty could be considered better?

From looking at the Sagarin rankings, at least we are sitting decently pretty right now.

Exactly. I'd rather win the rubber game CCG at Boise. And we'll get that spot. Just gotta hope CSU loses and we don't shit the bed against SJSU again. If Army wins out this may be moot.

 

[dcut03]

Exactly. I'd rather win the rubber game CCG at Boise. And we'll get that spot. Just gotta hope CSU loses and we don't shit the bed against SJSU again. If Army wins out this may be moot.

It will be moot, but I don't know about them beating Notre Dame. Winning on the road to a top 10 team and being undefeated would be enough to jump us, easily and perhaps even Boise if they win out.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

There is a thing now called the G5 rankings. It is different now. I am not certain but whoever finishes #1 here will likely get the spot. We only moved down to #3 after last week. Also notice there are teams in this poll from AAC, Sunbelt, MWC, Conference doesn't matter, if you're good enough for the next 2 years, you'll be in this poll and in-play for a bid, regardless of where you play.

Also the top 30-60 or so P4s are going to split apart in a couple years anyways.

College Sports Journal Sagarin FBS G5 Top 25–Oct. 26 - The College Sports Journal

Here are the Top 25 G5 rankings based on the Sagarin rankings for the week ending Oct. 26th, 2024 following the Week 9 games. We will will have a final ranking after all bowl games and the national championship game in January. Sagarin rankings provide the only rankings that actually ranks all Di

www.college-sports-journal.com

You keep saying it doesn't matter. I just showed the media rights deals for each conference. Do you want more money or less money?

These things will be determined by strength of schedule. If your conference schedule is more difficult you will get the nod over a team from a weaker conference.

 

[Boston Rebel 2]

I don't understand the initial premise of this.

If CSU makes the championship game and somehow wins it, then you are right. We likely don't have a team in the playoff.

But if they play Boise, which is very very likely, and Boise wins, then they are practically a lock for the playoffs.

I think Liberty has already been eliminated. You don't lose to arguably the worst team in FBS and still get in. Especially when the rest of your schedule is full of the fluffiest of marshmallows

If CSU wins out including the Championship game. They are in the discussion. The win again Boise actually helps them quite a bit. But I think the winner of the AAC likely gets the nod, depending on how the rest of the season shakes out.

It won’t matter they have absolutely no shot whatsoever of beating BSU.

 

[Rebel1986]

Exactly. I'd rather win the rubber game CCG at Boise. And we'll get that spot. Just gotta hope CSU loses and we don't shit the bed against SJSU again. If Army wins out this may be moot.

Army has just barely about 0% chance of winning against Notre Dame. While Notre Dame may not be at the top of the food chain this year, Army has only played bottom feeder teams all year. The Army schedule to date has included teams ranked as follows: 123, 116, 119, 122, 125 and 101. Not exactly a schedule that will build a team up. The remainder of their schedule is against 130th AF, 75 North Texas, 7th Notre Dame, 113th UTSA and 37th Navy.

 

[Rebel1986]

It won’t matter they have absolutely no shot whatsoever of beating BSU.

Never no shot what so ever! The entire first, second and third string for BSU could come down with food poisoning!

 

[dcut03]

It won’t matter they have absolutely no shot whatsoever of beating BSU.

Never no shot what so ever! The entire first, second and third string for BSU could come down with food poisoning!

No shot!?!?
It was a one score game we just played. One where we had the advantage nad shot ourselves in the foot.
A game where we lost the tirnover battle. The thing that we have pretty much won every other game we played.
I wouldn't bet on us, but we have more than just a chance on a rubber match game

 

[Boston Rebel 2]

No shot!?!?
It was a one score game we just played. One where we had the advantage nad shot ourselves in the foot.
A game where we lost the tirnover battle. The thing that we have pretty much won every other game we played.
I wouldn't bet on us, but we have more than just a chance on a rubber match game

They is CSU, they have no shot.

 

[dcut03]

They is CSU, they have no shot.

My apologies. My reading comprehension isn't great at 6 am without any coffee in me

 

[UNLVINMD]

UNLV in Vegas, need to schedule 2 P5 games at home each yr. No reason not to have Utah/BYU on the schedule. Texas Tech/OK State would bring fans.
Become Gonzaga of MWC in football, play anyone and win, B12 will be ready, with ACC going where? I see Stanford/Cal and SMU in PAC, that be 2nd choice.

4 games UNLV needs to win, and go from there. WIN WIN.

don't get me started on KK, I forgot hoops season is coming soon.

 

[UNLVINMD]

They is CSU, they have no shot.

CSU stinks, they have nothing, but easy schedule, that's it.

 

[Masked_rebel]

CSU stinks, they have nothing, but easy schedule, that's it.

Its the Mediocre West...
Outside UNLV and Boise, everyone else can lose to anyone else on any given weekend. Their offense isnt good with the threat of Horton. Fresno is probably our best bet to beating them, but I wouldnt count out Rivalry vs Wyoming, or Utah St offense playing for pride.

 

[WarthogRebel]

UNLV in Vegas, need to schedule 2 P5 games at home each yr. No reason not to have Utah/BYU on the schedule. Texas Tech/OK State would bring fans.
Become Gonzaga of MWC in football, play anyone and win, B12 will be ready, with ACC going where? I see Stanford/Cal and SMU in PAC, that be 2nd choice.

4 games UNLV needs to win, and go from there. WIN WIN.

don't get me started on KK, I forgot hoops season is coming soon.

I'm not a scheduling expert. But I don't think it's as easy as some of us think to schedule P4 teams to come here. I think it's way more than just picking up the phone and telling them the date we'll pencil them into the schedule? There isn't much there for them. A win doesn't help much and a loss is a killer. I get that they want us at home. But I don't get that they need or want to come here.

 

[Masked_rebel]

I'm not a scheduling expert. But I don't think it's as easy as some of us think to schedule P4 teams to come here. I think it's way more than just picking up the phone and telling them the date we'll pencil them into the schedule? There isn't much there for them. A win doesn't help much and a loss is a killer. I get that they want us at home. But I don't get that they need or want to come here.

I agree. They arent just going to roll into Vegas because their fans can have a good time... they can do that at home. I think we have to go on the road and if we are lucky, maybe we can get a lower tier P4 school to agree to a home and home when theyre down and by the time we are on their schedule for the home game, they've turned the games around. Like why would an SEC team outside Vandy want to come to Vegas for a game when they can sell 80,000 tickets for a home game regardless of who theyre playing.
They do need to schedule games to help their SOS but the majority arent readily going to take a road game to Vegas just because. We might get lucky with schools like a Baylor or Northwestern or Houston's but the top end schools arent going to schedule the "Gonzaga of the West" at our place

 

[Rebel1986]

No shot!?!?
It was a one score game we just played. One where we had the advantage nad shot ourselves in the foot.
A game where we lost the tirnover battle. The thing that we have pretty much won every other game we played.
I wouldn't bet on us, but we have more than just a chance on a rubber match game

Did you read the thread? We are writing about CSU playing BSU, not UNLV, or am I missing something?

 

[WYNN or Dye]

Its the Mediocre West...
Outside UNLV and Boise, everyone else can lose to anyone else on any given weekend. Their offense isnt good with the threat of Horton. Fresno is probably our best bet to beating them, but I wouldnt count out Rivalry vs Wyoming, or Utah St offense playing for pride.

CSU Horton, is out for the year.
Can't believe, I'm saying this but I'm hoping Reno beats CSU this Saturday.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

CSU Horton, is out for the year.
Can't believe, I'm saying this but I'm hoping Reno beats CSU this Saturday.

In the ugliest game ever 3-2...

 

[1Tripoda]

CSU Horton, is out for the year.
Can't believe, I'm saying this but I'm hoping Reno beats CSU this Saturday.

HE's been out 2-3 weeks now. They are still winning.

 

[Masked_rebel]

HE's been out 2-3 weeks now. They are still winning.

their offense is significantly less potent, more focused on the RB... and they played SJSU, AFA(1-6) and UNM(3-5).. again, its the Mediocre West.

 

[Rebel1986]

CSU Horton, is out for the year.
Can't believe, I'm saying this but I'm hoping Reno beats CSU this Saturday.

Think how the unr fans feel knowing that a win by them will help out UNLV football!

 

[WYNN or Dye]

Think how the unr fans feel knowing that a win by them will help out UNLV football!

It is, a hard dilemma for them, isn't it.
But, they are desperately looking for their first MW regular season win.
I, think they will take anything, right now.