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OSU, WSU, Cal, Stanford

WarthogRebel

WarthogRebel

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Dec 31, 2006
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We like to think they would be naturals to slide into the MWC or we could combine with them in some type of PAC merge. But from their point of view it would be a disaster - not only athletically but financially. These teams are used to bringing in @ $30 mil year from the their TV contract and the drop to MWC revenue numbers would most likely mean wholesale reductions in their coaching pay and the inability for the Presidents to syphon off $$ to pet programs. I'm hazy on language for the MWC on what happens if the conference dissolves and the same is true for the PAC. But I suspect we'll see a new TV contract with the addition of these programs but with only a slight increase from what we have now. I expect these PAC teams will do anything possible to try to get more revenue. I could see them taking a 1/3 share of BIG 12 or BIG 10. It would be about the same as the MWC could provide but there would be a possibility of getting much more in the future. It would keep their Big conference relevance. It would get them in the new dreamed of organization for the power 4 that cuts out the NCAA. In any case I don't see them lining up to get in the MWC or bring on what they see as country bumpkins into their precious PAC until absolutely nothing else is possible.
 
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I don't see Cal and Stanford ever joining forces with the MWC.

Oregon State and Washington State only bring new states to the MWC. That's it. Without Pac funding and being labeled 'P5' they aren't diamonds in the rough. In fact, they have been punching above their weight and now will, likely, return to reality. I don't see a reason for the Big12 to invite them.
 
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Absolutely a financial disaster for those 4. Those schools should offer themselves to the Big10/Big12 for free ($0 TV money) for the rest of this TV contract and ask to be cut in on the next contract in 2030. Long term it would be much better than anything the MWC will ever earn.

But if the Big12 doesn’t want OSU/Wazzu they have to try and rebuild the PAC with the best MW & AAC schools and hope to get something decent for TV money.

What Cal and Stanford decide is the interesting one. They could certainly make more money just going independent in football than the measly $4 million the MW makes. For the other sports they could go WCC or the Big West has a bunch of other UC schools if that is academically more acceptable.
 
Stanford I could see going independent, Cal no so much. OSU/WSU bring nothing to big 12, not needed, big 12 has enough dead weight in football, that's driving force playoff in football=$$$$$$

I seen some different merger with PAC/MWC/AAC that I prefer over PAC/MWC.
WSU/OSU, SDST, UNLV, Boise/Fresno, SMU, Memphis, CSU, NM. That's 10, if Standord/Cal join 12, the money won't be PAC money, but I think they could get 15-20 with apple on subscription, since streaming to me is future, and add CBS/Fox joining since there with MWC, they both need programming.

I even thought maybe Tulsa/Tulane or Louisiana Tech, and F UNR.
 
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I don't have inside info like a few here but I have heard UNLV, SDSU, and CSU have been in talks with the PAC 12 the last couple days. I would guess other MWC teams have also but those three were stated specifically. I am guess the remaining PAC is trying to make some type of move to stay alive and it isn't including a merger. Not sure how the exit fee will be handled either
 
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rebelzzz said:
I don't have inside info like a few here but I have heard UNLV, SDSU, and CSU have been in talks with the PAC 12 the last couple days. I would guess other MWC teams have also but those three were stated specifically. I am guess the remaining PAC is trying to make some type of move to stay alive and it isn't including a merger. Not sure how the exit fee will be handled either
Click to expand...
Outside of a merger the Pac would have to pay for our exit fees or at least a large portion. It could be an option but, it would be all on the Pac to make it happen. That is a lot of exit fee money to make that happen. I'm not confident in that option happening. They would still need more teams. The easiest option and least expensive for them to merge with us folding into the Pac.
 
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rebelzzz said:
I don't have inside info like a few here but I have heard UNLV, SDSU, and CSU have been in talks with the PAC 12 the last couple days. I would guess other MWC teams have also but those three were stated specifically. I am guess the remaining PAC is trying to make some type of move to stay alive and it isn't including a merger. Not sure how the exit fee will be handled either
Click to expand...
Or, maybe this... SDSU & OSU to B12.

fansided.com

College football realignment rumors: Big 12 not done expanding as surprise targets emerge

College football realignment is far from over as the Big 12 sniffs around the leftover programs in the Pac-12 and Mountain West.
fansided.com fansided.com
 
Meister_Rebel said:
Or, maybe this... SDSU & OSU to B12.

fansided.com

College football realignment rumors: Big 12 not done expanding as surprise targets emerge

College football realignment is far from over as the Big 12 sniffs around the leftover programs in the Pac-12 and Mountain West.
fansided.com fansided.com
Click to expand...
Here is the thing and why I believe the situation works for UNLV's benefit. The Big 12 can sit back and wait. There is no immediate deadline. It gives UNLV the opportunity in the next year or two to prove it has more value than many others.
 
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utestream said:
Here is the thing and why I believe the situation works for UNLV's benefit. The Big 12 can sit back and wait. There is no immediate deadline. It gives UNLV the opportunity in the next year or two to prove it has more value than many others.
Click to expand...
The Big12 won't wait. They have an opportunity to finally bury the MWC and the Pac by taking SDSU & OSU. It's all about money and if they can keep us G5 and keep us from getting more media money so they can protect their investments in the Western time zones they will do it. It's a vicious game with a money grab.
 
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utestream said:
Here is the thing and why I believe the situation works for UNLV's benefit. The Big 12 can sit back and wait. There is no immediate deadline. It gives UNLV the opportunity in the next year or two to prove it has more value than many others.
Click to expand...
Then this is a reason the MW needs to incorporate PAC teams and not disband. If the MW remains together then the $ 34 mil exit fee stays in place keeping SDSU and BOISE from leaving.
 
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WarthogRebel said:
Then this is a reason the MW needs to incorporate PAC teams and not disband. If the MW remains together then the $ 34 mil exit fee stays in place keeping SDSU and BOISE from leaving.
Click to expand...
I think we need to be assimilated into the Pac# collective. If we can get in and keep the P5 status that is more important than the exit fee. The MWC needs to end and the Pac# must continue.
 
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Meister_Rebel said:
The Big12 won't wait. They have an opportunity to finally bury the MWC and the Pac by taking SDSU & OSU. It's all about money and if they can keep us G5 and keep us from getting more media money so they can protect their investments in the Western time zones they will do it. It's a vicious game with a money grab.
Click to expand...
Meh, I think it would have to make financial sense. I'm not sure if adding OSU and SDSU would help the conference as a whole allowing them to maintain the current per school payouts. They don't have to worry about crushing the PAC, since it is already crushed. They also don't give a crap about the MW, nor should they.

I'm not saying they don't add those schools for sure, but they would have to be a discount. Even so, it may not be worth it, Reaching towards the pacific NW causes logistical problems. Problems they already have with the Arizona schools.
 
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dcut03 said:
Meh, I think it would have to make financial sense. I'm not sure if adding OSU and SDSU would help the conference as a whole allowing them to maintain the current per school payouts. They don't have to worry about crushing the PAC, since it is already crushed. They also don't give a crap about the MW, nor should they.

I'm not saying they don't add those schools for sure, but they would have to be a discount. Even so, it may not be worth it, Reaching towards the pacific NW causes logistical problems. Problems they already have with the Arizona schools.
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I get your points. For me getting UNLV into a P5 conference status will help us get more money. The payout to P5 conferences is higher from the bowl payoffs. Access to those championship bowls is an easier path. I believe we could get more money from the media payouts by keeping SDSU and OSU. Losing SDSU and OSU weakens whatever merger/collective we end up with. The other P5 schools could vote to remove P5 status from that new collective if they see it as a weak conference. SDSU and OSU keeps us relatively stronger.

It's out of our control I'm just hoping for the best possible scenario for UNLV.
 
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Meister_Rebel said:
The Big12 won't wait. They have an opportunity to finally bury the MWC and the Pac by taking SDSU & OSU. It's all about money and if they can keep us G5 and keep us from getting more media money so they can protect their investments in the Western time zones they will do it. It's a vicious game with a money grab.
Click to expand...
Taking STDSU doesn't bury the MWC. They were already planning to go to the PAC 12 before all of this craziness, so not much changes.
 
Meister_Rebel said:
I get your points. For me getting UNLV into a P5 conference status will help us get more money. The payout to P5 conferences is higher from the bowl payoffs. Access to those championship bowls is an easier path. I believe we could get more money from the media payouts by keeping SDSU and OSU. Losing SDSU and OSU weakens whatever merger/collective we end up with. The other P5 schools could vote to remove P5 status from that new collective if they see it as a weak conference. SDSU and OSU keeps us relatively stronger.

It's out of our control I'm just hoping for the best possible scenario for UNLV.
Click to expand...
For sure having SDSU and OSU strengthens the PAC/MW if they stay, which I think they do.

By adding both Arizona schools, I think the necessity of adding SDSU for the Big 12 drops off quite a bit. They do put a premium on Bball, and SDSU reaching the final this past season probably does raise some eyebrows, but still probably not enough. San Diego is a funny market, I'm not sure if it moves the needle enough for them.

But adding as many former or current PAC schools to UNLV's conference does strengthen TV contract power and competitive balance.
 
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WarthogRebel said:
Then this is a reason the MW needs to incorporate PAC teams and not disband. If the MW remains together then the $ 34 mil exit fee stays in place keeping SDSU and BOISE from leaving.
Click to expand...
Or they get 9 members to vote to change the departure penalties and then all bolt for the PAC.
 
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WarthogRebel said:
What would be the new departure penalties be and how would they keep Boise and SDSU from bolting to the Big 12?
Click to expand...
They have to get 9 members to vote that there are no departure penalties at all then they can all leave. That wouldn't keep them from bolting but it would also allow us to leave without a penalty.
 
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Rumor from Twitter: ACC exploring adding Cal and Stanford...

My proposal and it would be rough travel wise but honestly who cares-
West Coast ACC package
CAL
Stanford
SDSU
UNLV...
They get West Coast travel partners, premier destinations, Coast to Coast conference for TV relevancy, and premier Research institution in Stanford to go with Duke...
Gives them a reason to keep their current members from jumping around and tons of fuel for TV rights negotiations.
 
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Masked_rebel said:
Rumor from Twitter: ACC exploring adding Cal and Stanford...

My proposal and it would be rough travel wise but honestly who cares-
West Coast ACC package
CAL
Stanford
SDSU
UNLV...
They get West Coast travel partners, premier destinations, Coast to Coast conference for TV relevancy, and premier Research institution in Stanford to go with Duke...
Gives them a reason to keep their current members from jumping around and tons of fuel for TV rights negotiations.
Click to expand...
Good idea. Though jumping into the ACC right now might be similar to jumping in the pac 12 2 months ago. A lot up in the air still, and a bunch of teams may leave or get poached
 
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Masked_rebel said:
Rumor from Twitter: ACC exploring adding Cal and Stanford...

My proposal and it would be rough travel wise but honestly who cares-
West Coast ACC package
CAL
Stanford
SDSU
UNLV...
They get West Coast travel partners, premier destinations, Coast to Coast conference for TV relevancy, and premier Research institution in Stanford to go with Duke...
Gives them a reason to keep their current members from jumping around and tons of fuel for TV rights negotiations.
Click to expand...
Why would they pick SDSU and UNLV over WAZZU and Oregon St?

Premier destinations are nice, but how about well vetted college schools and fanbases? That travel and have good fan penetration amongst their states. Travel is mostly the same, but yes Washington State to Miami is a bit rough.
 
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dcut03 said:
Why would they pick SDSU and UNLV over WAZZU and Oregon St?

Premier destinations are nice, but how about well vetted college schools and fanbases? That travel and have good fan penetration amongst their states. Travel is mostly the same, but yes Washington State to Miami is a bit rough.
Click to expand...
Because traveling to Pullman or Corvalis is terrible, neither institution adds a large media market, etc...
I'm not making an argument for Wazzu or OSU though as existing P5s and thus instantly better options, if they were they would've already been invited to another P5 (it wasnt a secret that Pac 12 schools were thinking about leaving, especially Oregon and UW), so my premise is that UNLV as an emerging market and top flite facilities and Ease of travel to/from make a better companion school than OSU and WSU for the All Coast Conference...
 
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Masked_rebel said:
Because traveling to Pullman or Corvalis is terrible, neither institution adds a large media market, etc...
I'm not making an argument for Wazzu or OSU though as existing P5s and thus instantly better options, if they were they would've already been invited to another P5 (it wasnt a secret that Pac 12 schools were thinking about leaving, especially Oregon and UW), so my premise is that UNLV as an emerging market and top flite facilities and Ease of travel to/from make a better companion school than OSU and WSU for the All Coast Conference...
Click to expand...
There is the market and market penetration.

Most big colleges are in small towns. If market was so important, than nearly every major school would not count.

It is general market penetration that matters. OSU and WAZZU are big state schools that have a lot of people all over the state go to that school with strong followings. More people watch their games in person, more watch them on TV (ding ding ding) and more people travel to their away games.

Thats why that matters. UNLV and Las Vegas has a high ceiling, but it is just potential right now. Both of those schools are vetted commodities that bring way more today.

When these conferences are already a bit sketchy about stretching their TV money out, you some sort of security about moving forward and splitting that pot of gold a bit more.


Look at it this way, what would UNLV get if it tried to go independent. What kind of contract do you think they would get? Not very good. Definitely less that all of those other schools mentioned. UNLV has poor penetration in their second tier market, and is a state school with a pretty low population.
 
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Masked_rebel said:
The Big 12 has already said they are not interested in SDSU. Not one of their candidates and likely not in the running because they built a too small stadium.
Click to expand...
Did someone in the Big12 actually say that about the size of the stadium? I've been reading a lot of expansion news but have not seen that. Do you have a source?
 
Supposedly Stanford and Cal talking about move to ACC. That is hard to imagine I don't see how either the conference or the schools benefit from that. Unless, as they mentioned, taking some other west coast schools in order to make an ACC West. That would be crazy. Maybe we can be in the same conference as Duke lol.
 
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j. spilotro said:
Why do I feel like it’ll be the MWC plus OSU and WSU …. And that’s it?
Click to expand...
I think you add CAL in addition the these.

Less than 25% chance ACC adds CAL or Stanford. Scheduling nightmare for both sides. They would need to see a big TV contract addition to do it.

Stanford will go Independent football and WCC for all other sports ( following the BYU model). They will wait for a better opportunity. Too snooty for MWC and they have the $$ to cover a sports deficit for several years. If it doesn't work they can come to MWC whenever they want.

CAL is a 75% probability to the MWC. They don't have the Cache of Stanford and therefore have little chance for independent success. Once Stanford goes independent they will have nowhere else to go.
 
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LVRebel2000 said:
the addition of any of the remaining PAC schools would be good for the MWC. I'd take any and all of them, even if just for a couple years.
Click to expand...
Only problem for WSU and OSU is by coming in 3rd or 4th in mwc fb and 6th or 7th in mwc basketball, they may cement mediocrity...
 
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