Especially since viewership will be a lot less.
UNLV maybe going to the PAC!
- Thread starter 76RunninRebel
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Its either hubris, stupidity, or both...
Hubris... "We'll take the "top brands" of the MW, they'll collapse and we'll pick up UNLV and AFA on the cheap after we've easily added whoever we want from the AAC."
Hubris and Stupidity... Not asking yourself "what happens IF that doesn't play out?"
Now they're stuck with a bunch of bad options and lawsuits that will take a while to play out. Whether or not those lawsuits come out in their favor and to what degree is almost irrelevant... they'll take long enough to play out that the game will have changed again while they do.
Assuming UNLV does not somehow end up over there in the very near future they end up with a conference with essentially the same make up percentage wise of teams that drag down media value. Add to that the fact that they also gave Gonzaga a full share and football revenue may or may not be being diluted more.
Your "what if?" scenario is fine, but its still subject to the exit and poaching fees and the lawsuits that come with them. Yes, the MW would have been much weaker, but as someone else pointed out, those remaining teams would have had every incentive to keep the MW afloat no matter what, and they would've had time to do it. You'd be talking about tens of millions each for the remaining schools, plus I'd have to imagine that the courts and juries would be far more sympathetic to their case on account of appearances.
I don't think there was an option to have a majority of membership dissolve the MW and then join the Pac 2... its too simple and I think there's a reason it didn't play out that way. They would've been able to have their cake and eat it too... would've been at a solid 9, would've still added Gonzaga, and would've been in a much better position to use their resources to add Memphis, Tulane, and possibly one other. They wouldn't be an A4 and get multiple teams into the playoffs, but they'd be clear and away the best G5... but like I said, there had to be more to it than that.
Next best? Just merge with the MW under the PAC name and the above scenario plays out the same with the only negative being the revenue sharing dilution. My guess though would be that you could have easily overcome at least some of that revenue sharing hurdle by creating incentives for institutions to perform better for a greater share. Base it on whatever metrics you want... the lower level schools would have easily agreed to it.
Is there a chance that UNLV ends up in the PAC soon? Not likely. In 7 years? Likely.
In poker terms, they WAY over played their A9 against a short stack with pocket deuces and they're mad they lost even though they were a dog. They may still win the tournament, but they just doubled up a short stack who is now using their money against them.
Yes. That is how I see it as well. Less viewership. And, remember out of the mouth of Teresa Gould, she made reference to "weekday games".
Streaming + Midweek games = Kiss my ass.
Edit: Scratch Midweek reference. What was actually from the article was "Non-Traditional" game days. But, that to me implies midweek games.
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I can't see them offering TX State $9 million. They aren't even making $1 million now. So, they might get $3-4 million and the rest of the money would be divided by the "7". I would imagine that is why they are still in negotiations with them.
If you're TX state, why would you take anything less than a full share though? They know the PAC has no leverage right now. They need an 8th team or they're screwed. Also, they'd be facing an uphill battle their entire existence in the league if everyone else gets more money than them. I'd tell them to pound sand in that scenario.
I was thinking of it for a 2-5 year period they would earn less. I can't see TX State adding much to the media contract. Even if you paid them $4 million that is a windfall for them and they should take it and be happy about it. They haven't earned the right to $9 million in any real world I can think of. If they don't want it the pac should move on to the next joker on the list.
Similar to a deal we would make for a B 12 invite but ours would be on a larger scale.
Because they may go to Sam Houston State next.
They have some leverage, but if you were them, would you turn down 3x (+) the money which a chance of being double that or more down the road?
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Playing devils advocate here... The MWC offered them membership and they declined.. say the MWC deal comes in at 4-6 million.. That's still a few million less than what the PAC advocates keep arguing is the better deal. So taking less money to compete in a tougher league for 5 years doesnt sound like a winning solution either. So if I'm Texas St. Why would I take anything that puts me further behind Boise St. At least in the MWC we presume they were offered a full share and they realistically could be a top 3-5 team and become bowl eligible. Then you re-evaluate in a few years after the next round of possible movement happens.
Which is who? There can't be too many options at this point. At least good options as far as the PAC is concerned
You're right. There aren't many good options. But, Tarleton or Sam Houston as mentioned above might be willing to take less. For the MW the NIU was a good option and a much better option than TX ST. NIU will get less as they aren't full members. But I think for the MW getting a school in the Central time zone was huge. I have to think it's important for the PAC as well. But, there just isn't any justification I can think of in paying TX ST the full member amount. If the pac caves and gives them a full amount it's because they failed, like they normally do, and have run out of time in getting that 8th full time member.
Good point, but you are still playing chicken.
But does the MW still want them? Maybe, maybe not. Knowing Gloria, she may still make that offer out of spite.
Personally I do not like the idea of Texas State to the MW. They are fools gold. They have a poor fanbase. They are UC Davis with football. I didn't like the UC Davis add either. Having a large school and a big alumni base is nice and all, but if that alumni base doesn't give 2 craps about their sports teams who cares. Sure there is potential, but potential does little for media value. Media companies don't want to pony up because a team might eventually draw eyeballs down the road.
I literally had not heard of Tarleton State til this year. Sam Houston maybe a few years ago. If the PAC adds either of those schools, they take a big hit in appearance IMO. But they may have to, depending on how things shake out
As I think I outlined here before: If the Pac-7 is worth say $10M, new member X would have to be "worth" $18M in media to move the bar up. $11M for them and the matching $1M for everyone else. Follow that?
Now if the Pac-7 is worth $10M, new member X better be at least worth $10M so as not to dilute the rest of the conference. Who the hell would that be? Texas State? Doubtful.
Or as Meister says, and modified by me, they get whatever number keeps the rest whole at $10M?
Summary? The Pac-7 is f-ed, should have reverse merged, everyone has lost in this fiasco. Except UTEP I suppose.
After Utah State, you knew they would have to dig down deep to find a school, and it would be a lower level program for sure!
Because 3 million doubles current deal but some of that gets eaten up with travel costs. So around 4-5 would make it worth it.
Short term, yes, but then you have to compete against the rest of the schools that are making twice as much as you annually. So unless it was a graduated increase to equality, I'd have a hard time agreeing to it.
They turned down the MWC because they thought the financials wouldn't be enough as a full member with where they thought the new media deal would be. They arent taking the same offer to compete against teams with 2x their financial deals that are supposedly better programs with more resources...
I think if we had the same type of offer to the B12 where we get 1/3 to 1/2 of the other schools we take it. We take it because the money will be better in the future. We might take it for the same amount we are getting now. TX St has that same or better opportunity. Better because they will triple what they are getting now and still come out ahead even if it is half what the other pac schools get. If they turn down that opportunity their administration should all be fired.
yeah, good point. But you'd want it to be adjusted to get to where it's equal after some amount of time.
That works both ways.
If a school has to be 8 mil over the mean to move the needle up, they would have to be 8 mil below the mean to move the needle down substantially
And I do think Tx States is NOT worth 2 mil, though probably close.
So if the baseline is 10 mil per school right now, it may go down a bit but at least you have a conference.
Also I don't think that Gonzaga is a detriment to total value. A team that is in the Elite 8 every year is making 8 mil in tournament credits alone. Even if they keep half, that definitely a boon to a conference.
And true, basketball media revenue is a drop in the bucket compared to football, but Gonzaga is a legit college hoops brand. I think their media value is well above the average.
Case in point, the Big East schools get 7 mil per team, without football, in their base media package. I would argue that Gonzaga is at least worth that. They have a better brand than most of those schools and demand eyeballs. The biggest thing going against them is being on the west coast. But they play in many special events that counter all of that.
I think you could make the argument that Gonzaga actually adds to the total take home value of the conference, not detracting from it.
So long as Gonzaga remains nationally relevant and makes deep runs, definitely a positive.
If they fall off or miss the tourney a bit of an anchor.
A source close to the program told me that the PAC is requesting UNLV change their name to Las Vegas State University. LVSU!
They are sliding this year and I expect it will continue when they are in the PAC as they will no longer have the same flexibIlity to schedule as they please.
Very true, but has there been a more consistent program on the west coast or even the country as Gonzaga?
Kansas, Duke sure. But they have been probably more consistent then UNC, Kentucky, Arizona, and practically any other blue blood.
But like I said, they may not even need tournament to pull their weight in value. If the average Big east team is 7 mil, then are likely more than that. Their worth may be in the top 4 or 5 in the new PAC conference right now.
Pretty safe bet.
This year Gonzaga isn't currently in the top 25, so them being in the elite 8 or even 16 is unlikely. If the get in from the WCC they are most likely looking at a 7-12 seeding.
