UNLV maybe going to the PAC!
- Thread starter 76RunninRebel
- Start date
Looks like they are rethinking this if the numbers of the media deal for the new PAC are good they might jump the ship of the MW!
He thinks the new PAC deal will be worth 6 mill more per year than the MW which is not enough for UNLV to leave but says 10 million more would be. I think if it was 8 mill more per year ( MW=5 mill, PAC=13 mil) it would be worth it if the Pac paid at least half of our exit fee (17mill, down to 8.5mill). In 5 years you would gain 40mill (8mill×5yrs) and if you end up leaving for a P4 that 30mill exit fee could be negotiated down to 20 something million, you would still have money left and be in a power conference!
So 40mill - 8.5mill (MW exit, pac pays the other half) = 31.5mill - 20mill (PAC exit fee)= 11.5mill left and now in a P4 conference!
So 40mill - 8.5mill (MW exit, pac pays the other half) = 31.5mill - 20mill (PAC exit fee)= 11.5mill left and now in a P4 conference!
Yes, if we stay in the MW we will have more money than if we go to the PAC, I believe it would be 25-30mill but what if you don't get an invite! You can't tell me that the new MW will be close to the new PAC, way better football and way better basketball! In my numbers above if we get stuck in the PAC at least we are in a way better conference for football and basketball and would have made 31.5mill which ends up being the same money we will get if we stay in the MW! The new MW in basketball will be a 1 bid, maybe 2 bid league going forward! Football even worse! It going to suck!
I think our entrance should be contingent upon the SDSU AD on his knees giving our athletic department a collective knob polishing while wearing a shirt that says "this is where my metrics took me."
A major factor that was not there officially in the beginning with the PAC invite is the P4 free pass. It seems like the PAC will also have a universal p4 free pass, which was one of the biggest factors in staying in the MW in the beginning.
That's what I heard too but this guy says that there is still an exit fee for leaving for a P4!
Exit fee is the big difference-maker. Eliminate or or make it manageable and it’s a different conversation.
Yes considering they are a G5(now G6)... theyre the same as all the other non-P4
A PAC/UNLV marriage makes complete sense. They need each other.
Yes and no... they need us more than we need them. I think our administration is perfectly fine with being the premier program of a conference for a few years and letting the cards fall after that. It's not like the Pac 12 won't need more programs and keeping ourselves open to the Super league conversation while being a premier West Coast program seems fine to them.
The Pac 12 however needs better programs, and as much as they've puffed out their chests, I guarantee you the Og pac 2 plus Boise and SDSU aren't thrilled thar they've had to add USU and now potentially Texas St.
And then adding the P4 exit fee cause, I don't get it because that hurts Pac more than anything else. Why join a conference that could just as easily disappear into a WAC lite situation for a few years over a couple million in TV fees each yr...
I don't see where it's profitable for us to pay a $ 19 mil exit fee. Perhaps if the PAC pays it and we pay back at zero interest over 10 years. Or the PAC pays 1/2 and we pay the rest over 8 years.
Exit fees NEVER hold up 100%. The only question is where the fees will be settled.
I would be surprised if it is over 11 or 12 million per team. If the exit fees hold up, I can see that being reduced further.
So it all depends on where things get settled.
I would be surprised if it is over 11 or 12 million per team. If the exit fees hold up, I can see that being reduced further.
So it all depends on where things get settled.
It all depends on these lawsuits. If the poaching fees do hold up, then sure the PAC does need the MW more than the other way around. But if they get reduced by 1/2 and the PAC gets partial help with settled exit fees? Then we need them more than us.
They are a full conference now. They will net a good amount more per school with the base media contract. Then they will likely get more NCAAT credits by a good amount, and they have the edge on the G6 playoff spot just on SOS alone.
They would be taking a paycut with a merger in terms of annual revenue, so it really depends on how much they are in the hole with these fees.
If that PAC media deal is based off a streaming solution as KY said that will turn us invisible to the rest of the country. When the Pac12 (original) went to their own network pay per view package it was a complete failure. If they think people are going to run out and immediately secure a subscription to Apple or whomever they are going to be in for a rude awakening. And, Apple or whomever would be out of their mind to pay the Pac thinking it's going to help them make more money they are nuts as well.
I'm for holding the course unless the lawsuits fail us.
I'm for holding the course unless the lawsuits fail us.
It all depends on Media deal numbers.
If PAC media deal is 10 million per school.
That's 25 million more for UNLV over next 5 years.
Subtract the 10 million MWC is handing us. So down to 15.million.
You leverage that vs the exit fee money UNLV would need to come up with 4 million instead of 19 million in exit fees.
I'm wondering if there are concerns the PAC could win the lawsuit or get the exit/poaching fees reduced to the point Gloria wrote checks her ass couldn't cash..
There is wiggle room where things can be negotated down and still make good on the promises.
But if the poaching fees get thrown out, Gloria is in deep doo doo.
That's an interesting debate: streaming vs linear.
I think linear is the way to go...But if somebody like Apple TV is wiling to throw you 18 million a year does that make it worth it vs the visibility aspect.
There's been some smoke about UNLV possibly making the jump to the PAC afterall for a couple weeks now. Anything behind it? Don't know, but seems to be heating up a bit for some reason.
Either there is something going on or there are a lot of people who's favorite hobby seems to be throwing crap at a wall.
I just thought of this angle…
Is UNLV being floated as an option to make Texas State hurry and accept the pac offer?
While the pac would do that as a ploy, UNLV isn’t addressing the rumor. Could this be because they addressed it by signing with the MWC or are we truly in negotiations with the pac?
I’m not sure if either of my options are correct. I’m just floating some ideas out there.
Is UNLV being floated as an option to make Texas State hurry and accept the pac offer?
While the pac would do that as a ploy, UNLV isn’t addressing the rumor. Could this be because they addressed it by signing with the MWC or are we truly in negotiations with the pac?
I’m not sure if either of my options are correct. I’m just floating some ideas out there.
If the money is better or even... You have to go to the PAC. it's just a better conference. The ultimate goal of reaching a power 4 conference is still the big prize and unaffected by going PAC
UNLV is the ONLY school that would solidify a P5esque league. But, it's going to cost the PAC a ton of money. It's still a whole lot cheaper than going east for a Memphis & Tulane addition at this moment.
Should they agree, UNLV would have a better contract than the traitor 4 that would include the same pay and a free-pass to leave for a p4 invite. Anything short of that wouldn't be worth it.
Should they agree, UNLV would have a better contract than the traitor 4 that would include the same pay and a free-pass to leave for a p4 invite. Anything short of that wouldn't be worth it.
I’d take slightly less pay (just enough for the traitor 4 to save face which is what their egos would crave) in exchange for the free pass. The slightly less revenue would be made up in attendance and the bump up to the most competitive G5 would make the PAC the clear top G5.
No need to accept less. It's UNLV vs. Texas State. If the PAC can't convince UNLV to join, they're going to have a weak a§§ media deal. It's that simple. They are all up in our jockstrap.
We have them by the balls.
PAC is desperate so they probably circled back with an equal to better offer that we have in place with the current MW. If that’s the case, then it’s a no brainer but I can’t imagine that STDU and Trucker U would be ok with such an offer.
We need to get our own Prime and Netflix Deal..
There’s a boxing event on Prime this Saturday I believe..
The problem with streaming is a lot of live events that get ANY sort of audience it lags and buffers a lot. The live roasts and Tyson fight were disasters. I ended up watching Antonio Brown just livestream the Tyson fight on X, he put the camera on the Jumbotron and just streamed it. It was 5-10 minutes ahead of Netflix and crystal clear. He got like 24 million views.
So I’m not crazy about ANY streaming deal. Maybe for tier 3 games but not a flagship media deal.
Other than absolute hubris I do not understand why the PAC simply didn't do this..
SDSU
BOISE
UNLV
FRESNO
AFA
USU
PLUS
OSU
WSO
You have your 8 right off the bat. I know the argument is the exit fees etc. Even if they didn't add AFA, AFA would have bolted to AAC.
But.
What the hell was Gloria going to do with
UNM, WYO, RENO, SJSU and partial member Hawaii.
UTEP no matter how much they wanted out of CUSA isn't joining that mess.
Gloria would have either tried to merge with CUSA or maybe AAC. The MWC for all intents and purposes is dead. Sure they could have tried to rebuild, but with what? That media deal would be pretty awful. The remaining schools may have voted to disband the conference at that point. (Maybe not, maybe they stick it out, but again, for what? Who's joining that?) Remaining schools could have joined CUSA.
If the conference were to disband there are no exit fees at that point.
PAC would have had their full conference, a better read on valuations and then could have gone after Memphis and Tulane. Possibly putting UTSA and North Texas in play as well.
Still a G5/G6 conference, but you'd definitely be pushing a pretty solid media deal with a lineup of:
WSU
OSU
UNLV
BOISE
SDSU
FRESNO
USU
AFA
UTSA
MEMPHIS
TULANE
NORTH TEXAS
Looking at how they rolled out the invitations and the backroom deals etc. they clearly didn’t put any planning in place and if they did they certainly screwed up somewhere.
The screw up imo, is how rushed they were to get schools in, it didn’t really seem like a well planned rollout. The plan seemed to be just bumrush schools (Memphis etc) to join. The media blitz and immediate invites going out without any sort of media deal in place or even any sort of revenue structure in place never made any sense to me.
There’s 4-5 schools that said wait a minute, let me look at the numbers and figures of what the cost and projected revenue will be….and then told the PAC it doesn’t make any sense. Notably the Memphis AD publicly said in a presser that the PAC offer is all bullshit.
My other theory is that Oregon State and Wazzu are being intentionally cheap and trying to hoard as much of the leftover cash for their own pockets.
The PAC is desperate!!!!!! The cheapest and most expensive option is UNLV. And it's because it's the ONLY ONLY ONLY option.
The risk is the MW trying to rebuild. Just like the PAC did themselves. They would have 2 years to do so.
Sure the Media rights would suck but the poaching and exit fees help a lot.
They could reverse merge with the CUSA keep the name if they had to for legal purposes (even if it didn't make much sense) and go from there.
It would have been risky. The other option is taking 9 MW schools to officially disband the conference, but adding 9 schools wouldn't be that much better than a straight up merger financially. But probably the smarter move and probably just as good, if not better than what they may end up with. Though if USU and Tx St are their bottom 2, not bad.
When does the decision have to be made in order for the pac to be a viable conference? When do they get to the point where it's a failed venture and the conference is no longer recognized?
I would assume if they don't have 8 football playing members by July 1, 2026, they will have to answer to whatever the NCAA has ro say.
Technically, they still can be a conference right? Because a conference in and of itself does not have to be within a larger governing organization (NCAA, NJCAA, NAIA,etc). But for NCAA to recognize them and award them the same "privileges " bestowed upon other G6 leagues, another matter
Some of the same leadership is in place that said no to adding Texas and Oklahoma. That is how incompetent the PAC leadership has been for a long time
This post gets slightly technical, so apologies.
Did you watch the live stream of the Tyson, Paul fight? I’d stay away from Netflix. A bunch of video on demand guys tried to do a live stream without understanding the live event experience. Which lead to cascading failures at multiple points of the live stream.
Netflix built their own content distribution network called open connect in 2012. Basically, its a series of servers provided to internet service providers that have 3 copies each of all of the shows on netflix. Each copy is of different quality. Depending on the peak hours of data usage determines which copy you get. If internet usage is high in your area, you can still watch your shows, but at a reduced quality. This is great for tv shows, terrible for live events.
What you saw in the Tyson/Paul fight was encoding issues on their website (not designed for live events), coupled with content distribution network capacity issues (multiple fans throttled internet service providers, whose default action was to send a lower quality version of the stream that didn't exist), and breakages in their transcoding pipeline (the process of converting media files, like videos or audio, from one format to another ie, taking the file format for a specific smart tv, android, google, ios mobile, tablets, etc).
The short of all of that is a garbage experience for fans.
Would you want to put UNLV’s/ the MW’s brand exclusively on a streaming service where the potential for failure is higher than linear? How many times would you be willing to scream at the tv before you turned it off and went to go do something else? Would you be willing to pay a premium for something that might work sometimes?
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