I think Bailey will start game 1. I was reluctant to say this earlier but I think now is an appropriate time; Brumfield and a lot of people on the team automatically thought that Brumfield would be the presumed starter and it was based on him starting last year and his personality/charisma.
I always thought that it was unfair that he was the self proclaimed QB1 and a lot of players ran with that. However in camp, a lot of players on the offense have shifted their energy towards Bailey as the leader. For him to actually claim the starting job, he obviously has to practice well but he needs to find a way to rally the soldiers and have them behind him. But I have definitely seen a shift in energy towards the end of spring ball. People are listening to him when he talks now and it helps that Ricky and him were not only teammates before but great friends.
Maiava will start in 2024 unless something drastic happens. I wouldn't be surprised if he closes out 2023 but that wouldn't be a good sign because that would mean that we arent in bowl contention. Out of everyone in the QB room, he is the most connected to the players and everyone loves him. His energy level has risen during camp and people have been taken notice.