BSU has their bye week right before our game. Very advantageous for them especially if some of our guys are banged up. BUT… let’s just focus on the Cuse. One game at a time. Earn the win and live to fight another day. Kinda feels like Squid Games!
So you're telling me there's a chance
- Thread starter LVRebel2000
- Start date
Remember, if we split Boise, the second game matters more.
Just sayin'
Just sayin'
One game at a time.
BUT
Boise State wins that game and stays ahead of us in the polls. As long as it isn't a blowout, we'll be around. We close out with the following 4 game stretch:
BYE
at Hawaii
vs SDSU
at SJSU
vs Reno
BSU closes out with this:
vs Reno
at SJSU
at Wyoming
vs Oregon State
They will be on 6 straight without a bye, we will be on 4. I think we are in decent shape for a MWC championship game, should we make that run.
But, yes. One game at a time. Trying not to get ahead of myself
Absolutely worried about Boise… I’m saying a big IF we somehow make it past Boise, then that will be the game to sweat.
And IF we do that, having to most likely beat them a second time is also a tough one.
What's more difficult, beat Boise twice at home or beating them once in the championship game in Boise?
After much detailed analysis I think it would be better if they died.
Beating a team twice is very difficult though of course. Having said that though, I think the first game might be more important? Kinda hard to say.
Right now it’s really only Boise and UNLV in the cfp race… I think. James Madison is really the only other G5 getting votes in the AP (not counting Army and Navy since i don’t think they have a shot), and they’re quite a ways behind, so I don’t see them making up much ground.
Assuming no collapses from either UNLV or Boise, I guess it makes sense the winner of the second game would jump the other team in any standings. Might be kinda close though if we win the first and then lose close in the Championship game.
The other thing is the law of independent events. Winning the first means (likely) MWCC at home (easier), losing means (likely) MWCC on the road (harder). Whatever happens in the first game has no impact on the odds in the second, aside from home field advantages.
Tough... probably beating them twice, my fear is even beating them in Boise they still some how get the invite over UNLV as a probably top 15 ranked team when they'd lose...
ESPN has a playoff predictor tool. They select what they determine are your schools 3 hardest remaining games, and you pick the outcome of those, and of the conference championship game. So I'm assuming it predicts that you win all of the other games not mentioned. That being said, for UNLV, they show:
(60%) UNLV @ Oregon State (40%)
(57%) Boise @ UNLV (43%)
(68%) UNLV @ SJST (32%)
So they're stating that UNLV is likely to win 2 of the 3 games.
If we go with those percentages, and say UNLV loses the home game to Boise, then it comes down to the championship game. So if UNLV loses to Boise in the first game, it's likely that Boise would host the MWC title game, which they would likely win. In that scenario, it gives UNLV a 6% chance to make the CFP playoffs.
If, somehow, UNLV manages to win the championship game, it gives them a 98% chance to make the playoff.
It's kind of a fun tool to play around with. Check it out:
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/s...e-football-allstate-playoff-bracket-predictor
(60%) UNLV @ Oregon State (40%)
(57%) Boise @ UNLV (43%)
(68%) UNLV @ SJST (32%)
So they're stating that UNLV is likely to win 2 of the 3 games.
If we go with those percentages, and say UNLV loses the home game to Boise, then it comes down to the championship game. So if UNLV loses to Boise in the first game, it's likely that Boise would host the MWC title game, which they would likely win. In that scenario, it gives UNLV a 6% chance to make the CFP playoffs.
If, somehow, UNLV manages to win the championship game, it gives them a 98% chance to make the playoff.
It's kind of a fun tool to play around with. Check it out:
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/s...e-football-allstate-playoff-bracket-predictor
Last edited:
That’s great. I had UNLV winning out and they were the 3 seed 😂
It'll be more useful as the season plays out. Obviously, a win this Friday vs Syracuse would be massive.
IMO, UNLV's remaining schedule is slightly tougher than Boise's, other than the fact that we get to play them at home. UNLV plays OSU on the road, while Boise gets them at home.
BSU remaining games:
vs Utah state
@hawaii
@UNLV
vs STDSU
vs UNR
@SJ St.
@Wyoming
vs Oregon State
UNLV remaining games:
vs Syracuse
@Utah State
@Oregon State
vs Boise State
@hawaii
vs STDSU
@SJ St
vs UNR
I’m sure you already did it but losing the first and winning the second puts us at 98%. Winning the first and losing the second at 84%. Losing both 6% 😞
Interesting so I guess one loss is still good enough for an at large without winning the conference? I would be shocked if that happened.
Yep. But if lose 1-2 other games, it all goes out the window anyways. But, like I said, it's a fun tool to play around with.
Its the highest rated conference champion. So that game could be winner take all ( playoffs). So your scenario would not happen
I wish I could dive into their codebase to understand their data model. I m not sure if I agree with the spread on BSU/ UNLV. I didn’t think it would be so close after what Boise did to WSU.
It happened the same week we wrecked Fresno though, so who knows. Their offense (boise) is legit, as they've put up points every game. Jeanty is going to be tough to slow down, so we're going to have to outscore them. First one to 40 wins.
