Metrics.... nothing says "We dont like playing in New Mexico" like trying to get to San Marcos to play a mediocre Sun Belt turned Pac 12 team...
Pac media deal
- Thread starter bcvegaspt2
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Very UNLV-esque prior to Odom.
My take on Texas State was I thought they would be a good add for the MWC. They are investing a lot. Football has seen back to back solid years with a good young coach. Big school, lots of alumni and a President who seems determined to elevate the stature of his university.
While being a good add for the MWC, its an under whelming add for the PAC considering their attempts is to regain some type of 'POWER conference' designation or AQ status. This move doesn't do that in the least. In fact it hurts the profile of the conference for basketball.
Not knocking Texas State, a ton of potential, just don't think they were on the PACs radar at all. And this was a necessity add.
In comparison I would take UTEP 10 out of 10 times over Texas State! Good move to grab them first!
I don't know. Same same kinda. UTEP has had major struggles of their own. Some recent investment has definitely shown a new commitment to athletics.
I think both schools have potential.
Texas State @ UTEP non conference game finna get a little SAUCY tween the fans
That may be a really fun game to watch if they schedule it in the future
Both trying to prove to their conferences they aren’t total dregs
That may be a really fun game to watch if they schedule it in the future
Both trying to prove to their conferences they aren’t total dregs
There's a future PAC/MWC member matchup between NIU and SDSU early in the season. Really interested in that one. USU hosts UTEP as well.
Side note, and no inside information on this, just kinda reading tea leaves a piecing some stuff together...
1- I think we'll get some MWC media deal news in the next few weeks. Call it 2 or 3.
2- I think we'll see some MWC expansion news in the next month.
3- There may be another MWC defection...
I hope it's UNLV to the Big12.
No I don't think so. At least not now.
Again a lot speculation. Nothing concrete.
Try to keep this short (Well short as possible) a lot of moving parts to it.
1- Other MWC schools not exactly thrilled about AFA and UNLVs sweetheart deals. More so UNLV. AFA is limited by lack of NIL, usage of the portal and transfers so more money doesn't help them the way it would other schools. But UNLV getting essentially a Boise like deal does potentially create a competitive imbalance in the conference.
2-A lot hinges on mediation and what MWC gets notably UNLV.
In no way saying this is going to happen just a theory. Again sorry this is so long.
Essentially it could be more expensive for Gloria to keep UNLV than what UNLV is worth. By that I mean, say MWC gets 50 mil in total from mediation. UNLV gets a sizeable chunk of that.
It could be in Gloria's best interest to let UNLV walk. It would free up a lot of money to bolster the conference in numbers against further realingment.
Again a theory but she could conceivably take the money earmarked for UNLV and pay FBS entry fees (5 million) for SAC State (big California market) NDSU (Top FBS program) and possibly a Tarleton State or Sam Houston or even NMSU.
And give current schools a little more cheddar...
UNLV goes to the PAC essentially for free.
Again speculative. Extremely speculative. Contingent on PAC even wanting / needing UNLV AND UNLV wanting to actually join.
But I do think something surprising may go down with the PAC and MWC in the next couple weeks.
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According to Gloria the MWC media deal should be signed soon.
Yeah she said in the coming weeks. It will be real interesting to see how it turns out.
This is another part that gets tricky for her.
I cant remember the exact wording in deal with UNLV. I think between 1.5-1.8 extra per year to compensate for any drop in media value.
But if media numbers come back at 3 million AAV UNLV would get around 4.5 ish. So basically breaking even on what they get now. Not terrible not great either.
UTEP has a really nice football stadium 45K+ that would be one of the biggest in the PAC or MWC and has a past basketball history. They are also the only team in Texas El Paso with a metro population of just over 1 million. Texas State is located in San Marcos between Austin and San Antonio with a 30K football stadium. That area is 100% dominated by the University of Texas.
I've been to the Sun Bowl. Beautiful stadium.
While metro sizes are great it doesn't matter if people don't show up. Ask SJSU.
Texas State has a huge enrollment. Large alumni base.
UTEP's glory years in basketball are a memory of a memory. Much like UNLV they haven't made the tournament in over a decade.
Texas State has poured money into their football program.
I'm not going to dismiss them because its no different than UNLV. We're two years of good football after decades of futility.
UNLV's football record wouldn't have been much better than TX State had we been in the SBC or CUSA. I think we forget just how bad the Hauck years were outside of the bowl season. How bad the Sanbford years were. Seriously you could argue Sanfords two 5-7 squads were the best teams we've had in the last 20 years including Haucks bowl season. (Prior to Odom).
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SJSU is in the same position as Texas State with California and Stanford, only not as bad in comparison to the University of Texas being in the front yard of Texas State. The only positive is that Texas football fans are far better than Northern California football fans, but the same holds true for UTEP, except they have an entire city that has no other local team to support. If you go back and look at UTEP 20 years ago in 2005 they were one of the strongest programs out west with an average attendance of 47,899. That is the year when Louisville, TCU, USC, Cincinnati and North Carolina Charlotte all left the conference. They were on a slow slide until about 2008 with crowds that were still over 37,296, but have continued to drop with an average of most year of between 25-30K. I have little doubt that playing against programs out west will be a better fit for them than mostly playing teams in the south and east coast. I fully expect they will be near the top of the MWC in attendance. In comparison, CSU, SDSU, BSU have never even broke 40K in any season, and only FSU has reached 40K. My expectation is games against Wyoming, New Mexico, UNLV and Hawaii should be very good draws for UTEP at home.
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This is interesting to me... I can't think of any team in this conference outside of UNLV or AFA who would bring any measurable value any conference they move to (unless they moved FCS or CUSA). Unless it's one of the new members, where I could see NIU decommitting, or PAC jumping in on GCU.
Outside of those two: SJSU, UNR, Wyo, UNM, Hawaii. ...Only UNM basically really moves the needle.
UC Davis, UTEP, NIU, GCU.... Kinda the same. Only GCU basketball does anything there.
Good insight Bull. It will be interesting to see how things pan out. BTW, where did you learn tea leaves? Is that now a major?
This is damn interesting to think about. Nice.
I wouldn't call it good insight, speculative at best and probably absolute nonsense. 😁
Thanks...
But save yourself the brain cells. and don't ponder it too much.
It's all speculation. (UNLV to PAC stuff) More only avenue I can see it happening.
Rest of conference unhappy with deal UNLV got, I'd be shocked if they weren't pissed about it.
So Grand Canyon, which is basically another University of Phoenix, is a no brainer better pick? Who cares that they are in Phoenix went people in Phoenix do not care about them.
Do you think UCDavis will also be a no brainer addition? Should we go after UTI (University Technical Institute) next. Go fighting cranberry Juices!
Brand and people watching are what drives media contracts. People want to watch Gonzaga. They get big OOC tournaments because they draw eyeballs. GCU does no such thing right now.
Yes Gonzaga is tied to Few and he won't coach forever, but they are a National Brand. They are much more likely to find a replacement to keep that going that Grand Canyon, who still doesn't have a NCAA win with Drew.
Saying that Gonzaga hasn't won a NC is pretty silly, when they have like 2 Final fours, and 2 2nd place finishes. Comparing one team to an entire conference? Gonzaga has a better resume than all teams of the Big East individually other than perhaps UConn, and maybe Villanova. You can make the case that they have been the most successful program of this millennium. Even without a Natty.
I like the additional of GCU, though I would have rather had St. Mary's, but still. There is potential there, but that is all it is at this point. Gonzaga is what we all hope we could can get to as a program right now, and proven over multiple decades.
It is an interesting thought, but it is worth losing the best remaining media market by far by letting us walk?
Losing UNLV would sack the conference media value even further, and right now it is pretty bad.
It crushes the conference's only legit playoff contender. And one of the few schools that might actually make a NCAAT. (Come on Josh!)
Even with the sweetheart deal, it is only temporary. Sure we get a chunk up front and a small piece for 6 years, but then it is back to equal sharing.
I don't think this will truly happen, simply because Texas State has officially been invited. I think the PAC were trying to see if they could get us, which is why it has taken this long, but I think adding Tx State shuts the door. I simply don't think that the PAC would invite them if they thought we would join.
I like UTEP's upside.
I really do.
I don't think they are any better or worse an additional than Texas State would have been for the MWC.
MWC pursued Texas State and was told no.
We've touched on this a bunch.
Losing the Vegas media market stings but not nearly to the degree people might think. Averages are funny that way.
Say UNLV / Vegas market is worth 2x any other market in MWC. Call it 6 and everybody else is 3. (Not including NIU don't know what that deal is for)
27 Mil divided 8 ways 3.75 million AAV. Plus you are paying UNLV an extra 1.5 million more per season vs everyone else.
Say you remove UNLV and add in two more markets worth 2 million each. You still get right at 3 million by removing UNLV's 1.5 sweetner.
So letting UNLV walk costs you 750k on your deal. And that's provided UNLV and Vegas market are worth 2x anybody else in the conference. Not chump change but I wouldn't say its tanking the media deal either. And you've bolstered your numbers in the process.
I think where you are going is more what you're seeing in AAC. After losing multiple huge markets bolt in CINCY/UCF/HOUSTON/SMU they've backfilled with multiple lesser markets like Charlotte and UNT etc.
I didn't know that the University of Phoenix had an athletic department. Grand Canyon University already averages over 7,100 per game with a seating capacity of 7,000. They also have numerous additional fans that can't get tickets because they do not have the capacity, which I guess is better than the University of Phoenix. Considering GCU has a good sized budget for the athletic department and is increasing it every year, not sure you that would compare to the Univ of Phoenix which doesn't even have athletics?
Funny how according to you Drew doesn't have an NCAA win with Drew, and you would rather have had St. Mary's than GCU? For your knowledge, St. Mary's only has 4,000 students total, which most likely make them one of the smallest NCAA D1 schools in the county. Second they do not seem to have done very well playing against GCU losing to them 75-66 in 2024 (the game was not nearly as close in the second half as the score with GCU up by almost 20 at one point) . https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401638605/grand-canyon-saint-marys Third your facts the Drew doesn't have a NCAA win with Drew shows that you are also wrong there considering the last win over St. Mary's was last year, and was in the NCAA tournament, but don't let the facts get in your way when St. Mary's loses to the fighting Cranberry Juices! You may also want to look up the fact that GCU has the highest rated team in the transfer portal of any school in the MWC or PAC for 2025, which includes Gonzaga (ranked in the 30's).
As for Gonzaga and their history of being a national brand and how they can easily find a replacement for their coach, ask UNLV how that went for us when trying to replace coach Tark. Gonzaga has not had success under any other head coach, so that is not a sure thing. But this also doesn't change the fact that you are totally ignoring facts when I said GCU would be a better pick for the MWC then Gonzaga would be for the PAC. Funny how you keep pushing how well the basketball program is doing and how they are a national brand, but how does that help the PAC. Gonzaga gets a full share of the TV contract, but Gonzaga does not make a single penny with a football program towards the conference, Gonzaage gets to keep 50% of the basketball revenue from the NCAA tournament plus 1/8th of the rest as their percentage of the revenue, and they also get 1/8th of the football revenue during the regular season which cuts deeply into the money the rest of the conference receives. Tell me how that is a great deal for the conference? As long as Gonzaga is winning big they get most of the money from any tournament run (approx. 67%), and even if they do not make the tournament, they still get 100% of their portion of the football money without playing a single game. This deal was made when it looked like the PAC would be looking at $12-16 million, but those numbers are now looking like more in the $6-10 million range. Sounds like a great deal to me.
You can make an arguement that Gonzaga is better than any team in the Big East? Gonzaga didn't even win the WCC regular season even with an in conference schedule that didn't have them playing a single team in the conference with a SOS that was in the top 80. By the way, Gonzaga strength of schedule was at #74 this season which was barely in front of UNLV at #77. Strength of schedule of teams in the Big East has MarQ #40, UConn #54, Seton Hall #55, Xavier @59, Providence #60, De Paul #62, St John's #65, Villinova #66 and Georgetown #71. Gonzage went 14-4 in a very weak conference, and would be hard pressed to win half of their games if playing in the Big East. It is alway easy to have a great record win playing in a relatively weak conference. An I will give you the same point that if GCU played in the Big East, they would also most likely be looking at a losing conference record. (ww.warrennolan.com/basketball/2025/sos-net). You are trying to argue that Gonzaga is the most successful program of this millennuium? Is that number of wins playing in a weak conference, or actual success playing better programs? Interesting that Gonzaga hasn't won a single national championship, but you are aguing they are better in this century than UCONN who won national championships in 2004, 2011, 2014, 2023, and 2024 (they went to a total of 11 national championship games)?
The bottom line still isn't whether Gonzaga is good or not in basketball, the arguement is how valuable they are to the PAC considering they have no football program. Do they add more money to the conference then they take away from it? We will see were Gonzaga is and where GCU is within the next 5-10 years. Considering GCU has 5-10x the money Gonzaga has, I will put my bet on GCU. Gonzaga has an entire budget of $400 million for 2024 while GCU spent over $300 million just in the last 3 months of 2024 (year budget not available). GCU also put over $1.8 billion into campus academic infrastructure since 2010 which is far more than the value of the Gonzaga campus and endowment combined.
