I believe the MW is finished adding full programs. I suspect we might add a basketball or football only program for a partial share though.
Official : NIU to the Mountain West
- Thread starter WYNN or Dye
- Start date
It is part of the Texas A&M school system and easily would be able to fund moving up to a higher level. The positive is that Texas is football crazy and they already have a very good sized crowd for a lower division program. The main negative is the school is located in a relatively small town which may cause issues in regards to attendance growth. The question would be could they build a stadium or expand on the existing stadium to seat at least 30K? Would enough people be willing to travel for a couple of hours to attend games so that the attendance could jump up to at least 25K? In regards to the stadium, it is built in a way that they could easily expand from the 24K that it currently seats to over 30K with a minimal cost, and could likely expand to around 40K by leaving the main stand area as is and expanding in the open areas without a total rebuild. In regards to people willing to go to the games from further out, this is Texas where people travel 6-8 hours for high school football games. Finally they have around 18K+ in attendance at the school which is a little on the small side, but isn't horrible.
My feeling is that Tarleton would be a good second football program in Texas which could help expand the MWC footprint and if handled correctly could help increase the TV contract.
Tarleton has made some big investments recently, pointing to them wanting to move up and get out of the FCS.
There's some things that make them interesting. My biggest issue and you touched on it a bit is what would they bring to a media deal.
If they had already been in CUSA/FBS for a few years and there was some type of gage on what type of viewership they might bring I'd be more excited about potentially seeing them added. Just a lot of question marks.
Yeah but attendance that exceeds the dregs of the conference not really a selling point.
No it's not..But points to how bad the bottom of the MWC is when a school none of us has probably ever heard of in FCS is out drawing them. And they just recently moved up to FCS I believe.
I dont know how adding 9am games for mostly mountain and pacific games is a good thing?
Time slots don't matter as much as people watching. You have to sell to advertisers that people will actually watch the game. Going against noon games in the east coast against schools that demand the eyeballs during a much more digestible time frame for the vast majority of the fans doesn't seem like it will help our bottom line at all.
Time slots don't matter as much as people watching. You have to sell to advertisers that people will actually watch the game. Going against noon games in the east coast against schools that demand the eyeballs during a much more digestible time frame for the vast majority of the fans doesn't seem like it will help our bottom line at all.
Here's where I see some value. You're up early. You turn on TV. 'Your Team' plays at 1pm. You can theow on pregame shows or you can throw on actual games for background noise until your game is on.
Again I don't think we can extrapolate too much for any game that was on ESPN2. It was in the bottom 5 watched games on that channel all year long, with over 70 games. Every sports bar in the country has that channel on by default. To really compare we need to see averages and really what kind of streaming numbers each team gets. To see a real fan base, see how many watch crappy broadcasts fans will watch, not look at numbers for channels that will get numbers by default.
I don't know that is somewhat flimsy.
The NFL games in Europe that start at 9:30 am, are some of the least watched games in recent history. Typically they involve some bad teams (cough, Jaguars, cough), but that doesn't change the fact that the same games get significantly more viewers when they play at normal time spots.
I just don't think that is a PRIME spot for capturing a ton of fans. I think much more people will watch college game day, vs a 9 am game for instance.
For a conference that has 90% in western time zones, more early morning games seem to be bad, not good.
If the MWC is going to go the FCS route, then I don’t care what the market size is. You go after either NDSU, SDSU, Montana or Montana St. or any combination of the 4. Nobody else will move the needle.
Last edited:
Yep. I know they are all tiny markets. Even combining Montana and North and South Dakota you don't get to 3 million people. North and South Dakota each are roughly the size of El Paso in terms of population. However you would absolutely own those three markets. There are no other FBS schools to compete with.
Plus all four are solid programs as close to FBS level as you could be as an FCS program.
I keep seeing Tarleton State brought up. I looked into them a bit and they have definitely invested heavily in sthletics recently. Their avg home attendance is better than a few of the current MWC/PAC schools at around 18k. Being a Texas school I get some of the appeal. Texas is football crazed. The state is massive in terms of population. But at some point there are diminishing returns. I can't imagine they would have much market penetration. Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, all eat up a lot of the viewership. And then you have North Texas, Texas State, Rice, Sam Houston State and UTEP taking up even more. Tarleton is interesting but I'd much rather have any of the Montana or Dakota schools.
Tarleton St. is being thrown out there because they have that Texas market/money... you're not talking about UT or even TT but these Texas school alumni bases move into those large markets and you then you get people tuning into Dallas or Austin or SA market...yes, not as great a share or anywhere near the people watching those big schools, but Texas market on a sports network is still the Texas market.
All of those move the needle, but the wrong direction, that doesn't even consider the 5 million upfront fee to elevate each school.
I am not a fan of upgrading a FCS school. They rarely come out successful, most struggle, and they all start in weaker conferences than what the MW will be. Not a lot of historical evidence to prove that they will be good enough.
And that is just competitively. I cannot see any individual school being better than the new MW mean in terms of media value. I think they are all below the new MW mean, which is already low. Add those 4 and that is 20 million dollars gone from the upgrade fees ( unless these schools can afford to pay that themselves) Likely it will be taken out of the MOA bonus we have all been counting on. Add those for and take a 1.5 mill over the base media easy.
I just don't see the point.
Hell, even if UCDavis or GCU wants to get into FBS football, I think they need to prove it in the CUSA or Sunbelt or something before the MW takes them as a full member.
Just for giggles..Let's say NDSU and Tarleton both get the MWC invite.
What gets more TV views..
NDSU VS anybody in MWC?
Or
Tarleton vs anybody in MWC?
Im guessing a tie...
Again though... Were not necessarily talking about TV viewership directly speaking. You're talking about markets you are penetrating with ad sales at a network. CBSsports Network for example probably draws similar TV views for MWC games regardless of the teams playing. Sure maybe one fan base or another has more viewers, but ultimately its a 3rd or 4th tier network that you watch on BWs TVs or at a bar along with ESPN, F1, and Fox... But as an ad salesman, you are selling the "Dallas market, the Houston market, the SA market, etc..." during prime time slots on your network... Thats the only difference. NDSU might have a name recognition but how many people watch FCS football outside the playoffs?
Ndsu 2.41 million viewers last night. Only football game going helped of course. https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/20...ence-highest-five-years-sans-nfl-competition/
It's also the FCS championship game.. FCS doesn't draw that viewership on a weekly basis.
I don't recall if we ever discussed this aspect of NIU to the MWC. Mostly, it never occurred to me that MAC Nation considered NIU a part of the #3 media market of Chicago. They aren't even in Chicago. I think maybe about 60 miles away.
"The MAC will also lose the Chicago media market (#3 in the country behind Los Angeles and New York) and the Central time zone with NIU’s departure— both extremely valuable assets in any future media deal."
It's a good read on how this sports journalist describes the loss of NIU to the MAC. Interesting also that NIU had a losing history similar to us and overcame that. If you have a minute click on that link in the article that talks about the "1998 Streak Buster game".
www.hustlebelt.com
"The MAC will also lose the Chicago media market (#3 in the country behind Los Angeles and New York) and the Central time zone with NIU’s departure— both extremely valuable assets in any future media deal."
It's a good read on how this sports journalist describes the loss of NIU to the MAC. Interesting also that NIU had a losing history similar to us and overcame that. If you have a minute click on that link in the article that talks about the "1998 Streak Buster game".
COLUMN: The loss of NIU should be a call to arms for Jon Steinbrecher and the MAC
With the shock departure of Northern Illinois and the pursuit of Toledo, the MAC has existential questions to face at a crucial juncture in college sports.
www.hustlebelt.com
Technically UNLV isn't in the City of Las Vegas either, but being in the metro area is really the same thing! I still expect the MWC will go after at least one more team back east. Curious to see how much NIU will help with the future media deal?I don't recall if we ever discussed this aspect of NIU to the MWC. Mostly, it never occurred to me that MAC Nation considered NIU a part of the #3 media market of Chicago. They aren't even in Chicago. I think maybe about 60 miles away.
"The MAC will also lose the Chicago media market (#3 in the country behind Los Angeles and New York) and the Central time zone with NIU’s departure— both extremely valuable assets in any future media deal."
It's a good read on how this sports journalist describes the loss of NIU to the MAC. Interesting also that NIU had a losing history similar to us and overcame that. If you have a minute click on that link in the article that talks about the "1998 Streak Buster game".
COLUMN: The loss of NIU should be a call to arms for Jon Steinbrecher and the MAC
With the shock departure of Northern Illinois and the pursuit of Toledo, the MAC has existential questions to face at a crucial juncture in college sports.
Last edited:
I'm sure they have some interest in Chicago, but I was severely question their market penetration.I don't recall if we ever discussed this aspect of NIU to the MWC. Mostly, it never occurred to me that MAC Nation considered NIU a part of the #3 media market of Chicago. They aren't even in Chicago. I think maybe about 60 miles away.
"The MAC will also lose the Chicago media market (#3 in the country behind Los Angeles and New York) and the Central time zone with NIU’s departure— both extremely valuable assets in any future media deal."
It's a good read on how this sports journalist describes the loss of NIU to the MAC. Interesting also that NIU had a losing history similar to us and overcame that. If you have a minute click on that link in the article that talks about the "1998 Streak Buster game".
COLUMN: The loss of NIU should be a call to arms for Jon Steinbrecher and the MAC
With the shock departure of Northern Illinois and the pursuit of Toledo, the MAC has existential questions to face at a crucial juncture in college sports.
Do they have any more penetration in Chicago than say SJSU in the bay area?
If the MAC had large chunk of Chicago, they would be getting more that 750K per team, just saying.
The same argument can be made with Oregon State who are a distant second to Oregon; Washington State who are a distant second to Washington, SDSU who have never had any real impact in the San Diego market; Fresno State that only have the farmers market; and CSU who are behind Colorado, and fighting Air Force for the remainder of the market (Colorado has a huge military presence, specifically Colorado Springs, which helps out for Air Force) .
OK. we can play that game.
NIU was maybe the best market in 12 team league that was worth 750K per team.
Fresno, CSU, SDSU are at least top half markets in a league than earns a made 5 mil per year ( not counting the WAZZU/OSU bump this year)
OSU and WAZZU were the worst 2 of a 10 team conference that was offered 30 mil per school by ESPN.
A down SDSU averaged 25k fans per game, an up bowl NIU team averaged less than 10k last year ( haven't seen this year).
I don't think we can have "the same argument".
Until the PAC has a contract or even eight teams, they don't have anything at all! You can argue the market penetration of NIU with sold grounds, but the same argument can be made for almost the entire MWC as well as the two PAC teams that have very little market penetration in their perspective markets. Washington State and Oregon State were to the PAC12 what Vanderbilt's of the SEC or Northwestern of The Big are in regards to their prospective conferences. There would be a zero negative impact if dropped from their prospective conferences. Believing that those two schools had anything at all to do with the PAC $30 million deal is interesting, in fact if those two schools had been dumped, the average pay per school would have gone up by millions.
PAC will get to 8 teams. WE all know that.
We will have a better what everyone is worth within the next 2 years. We are all just guessing.
But lets say this. Assuming that all MW are basically the same with a small delta in worth. Why would the PAC run far, far away from the idea of a merger? If that were the case, the payout of a merged conference would be about the same as creating their own conference. It would also cost zero fees, it would have been likely a reverse merger, they would keep the PAC name, most of their "war chest" and they would have solidified the best G5 conference.
Could it be, that the delta within the mountain west is pretty big. They knew their worth from their partners and realized it was worth all of the exorbitant up front costs to create a new conference? Sharing with the doldrums of the MW would be too much to take?
Follow the money. That is what this is all about, it always has been, it always will.
They had 250 million or so reasons... MWC didn't want the Pac 12 brand and if they lost the conference they lose all the money... the lawsuit settlement doesn't just give them all the cash, it gives them control of it but if the conference fails to be a conference, the money then gets split back to everyone..
So yeah, there's probably a delta, probably be bigger had Memphis and Tulane jumped, will ot be astronomical, no, but the 2 currently voting members are getting buckets of cash to maintain the conference and pay out amongst themselves that's why they didn't just merge...
Not typically no. But earlier in the year NDSU VS South Dakota State (I think) was on ESPN 2 (Again I think) and did very well for a regular season game.
@RebelinWA had the numbers for that game.
Perhaps, but that is definitely negotiable.
There is an argument that legacy funds stay with legacy members, hell the MW is doing that right now with bonuses the the legacy members. If we did a reverse merger, the rest of the member wouldn't automically have a claim to those funds.
I do think that was likely a part of the contention that prevented a merger though.
I don't think that the MW care about losing their brand. If they did, they are stupid. The PAC is a better brand.
I
IT was the 5th least watched game on that channel all year long. Out of 70+ games. ESPN gets numbers by default, because it is on in every Sports Bar in the coutnry.
They just started counting OOH viewers in Neilsen about 4 years ago. However keep in mind it is totally imperfect and impossible to be accurate. Also if a bar is showing games on ESPN, they are also likely showing games on FS1, CBSS, CW, B10, SEC, etc. so whatever PPM models they are using to determine OOH viewers basically wash out for each network the same.
In a vacuum it’s pretty easy to see that the teams going to the PAC in aggregate are way more valuable than the MW. And it’s easy to say that if we take all the valuable parts then we will all make more because we don’t have to share with the less valuable parts.
But there was a TON of hubris in thinking that was all there was to it. They’re finding this out now.
It’s like the PAC was a Lexus that got stripped for parts when everyone left and all WSU and OSU were left with was the body. Well they’ve got a bunch of money but not enough to replace the missing parts with Lexus parts, so they decide to strip the parts from the MWs Toyota Camry. Since Toyota makes Lexus they figure they can pass it off, but then they run out of money or piss off a supplier and now they’re just trying to cobble together a car that runs.
Gonna look great with those stock rims and tires off a 1997 Ford Ranger.
They, along with at least a few others in the conference could have said, “we’d really like to merge but we need a more equitable distribution for the “better brands”, and presented a solution to do that and the MW would have had to agree for fear of what is happening now.
It makes TOO much sense that that’s what SHOULD have happened, but this is when hubris and ego steps in, because to pull it off they would have needed UNLV and one other. But SomeboD(SU)y didn’t want that.
If it was JUST money then it would have gone another way.
In the media space, we actually struggle with computing viewership based on commercial accounts (bars). Sure, a Buffalo Wild wings might have a packed house for a game. But which game are the people watching? Do you weigh each bar the same? What about a random hole in the wall bar with 3 people who have the game on for noise?
Thats my point about why adding schools in certain markets although not the premier school or even second school for that market, they're are still eyeballs in that market that watch and places that tune in for those TV ad sales in windows that arent traditionally filled by the MWC.
Exactly. I actually was on front end of OOH media in the early 2000s with Clubcom(gyms) and Ideacast(planes). Everything is a guess based on potential eyeballs per visitor volume. Some people are watching some TVs, other people are watching other TVs. Some people don't watch at all.
I think UC Davis becomes full member in a few years.
SAC State is rumored to be nearing a decision on moving to FBS soon. I think it may be CUSA. PAC has stated they do not want FCS programs, although that could change. I wasn't a big proponent of SAC State as an addition..But I'm actually warming to the idea of it. Big market and you are planting another flag in PAC territory. Anything that messes with. them makes me happy..
My guess SAC State to CUSA. NDSU FB only to MWC. Either Texas State or North Texas to PAC.
