NDSU

[Gator 82]

I’m really interested to see what some of your perspectives are on this matter. I had a friendly debate with a work colleague and I said if NDSU were a FB only member in the MWC for this upcoming and final season with all current MWC schools, that the Bison would finish in the top 5 and possibly top 4 of the final standings. He believes they would finish in the bottom half if not near the bottom. He did make a compelling argument of sorts when he mentioned how Montana St. struggled to beat UNM.

 

[rebelzzz]

I would be surprised if they finished top half on the MWC

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

I would be surprised if they finished top half on the MWC

It would be lack of scholarships/roster size that would be the issue. Not talent. 11 v11 both sides of the ball they would hold up. I think the number of players they've had drafted vs some in MWC shows they get talented dudes.

Depth / attrition would set in over the course of the season.

I think they would go .500 at worst.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

I’m really interested to see what some of your perspectives are on this matter. I had a friendly debate with a work colleague and I said if NDSU were a FB only member in the MWC for this upcoming and final season with all current MWC schools, that the Bison would finish in the top 5 and possibly top 4 of the final standings. He believes they would finish in the bottom half if not near the bottom. He did make a compelling argument of sorts when he mentioned how Montana St. struggled to beat UNM.

That's an odd way to look at it...

Montana State an FCS program struggled to beat UNM an FBS program on the road..

Same UNM team that beat ranked WSU?

Same UNM team one win away from bowl eligibility?

I don't think your co-workers argument was all that compelling actually.

Difference would be current roster sizes and depth. NDSU/South Dakota State/Montana/Montana State could hang with anybody in MWC not named Boise at home. Over the course of a season they would break down. Smaller roster sizes.

But in a one off game.

I'd enter a game with UNLV vs NDSU a little nervous.

 

[Gator 82]

That's an odd way to look at it...

Montana State an FCS program struggled to beat UNM an FBS program on the road..

Same UNM team that beat ranked WSU?

Same UNM team one win away from bowl eligibility?

I don't think your co-workers argument was all that compelling actually.

Difference would be current roster sizes and depth. NDSU/South Dakota State/Montana/Montana State could hang with anybody in MWC not named Boise at home. Over the course of a season they would break down. Smaller roster sizes.

But in a one off game.

I'd enter a game with UNLV vs NDSU a little nervous.

I see it from both sides. I think the point he was trying to make was that one of the best FCS teams struggled to beat what was perceived as one of the worst FBS teams, but you definitely make some valid points

 

[Couev]

They haven't beaten a FBS team since upsetting #13 Iowa in 2016. They are top of the talent curve in FCS, but I think they're a sub .500 team in the MWC. That 63 vs 105 schollies is tough to overcome especially over the course of a full season.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

They haven't beaten a FBS team since upsetting #13 Iowa in 2016. They are top of the talent curve in FCS, but I think they're a sub .500 team in the MWC. That 63 vs 105 schollies is tough to overcome especially over the course of a full season.

To be fair haven't the majority of their FBS games been vs P4 schools?

And all on the road?

But yeah the scholarship difference over a season would show as season wore on.

Even the scholarships out. That dynamic changes but it likely takes a few years.

 

[Couev]

To be fair haven't the majority of their FBS games been vs P4 schools?

And all on the road?

But yeah the scholarship difference over a season would show as season wore on.

Even the scholarships out. That dynamic changes but it likely takes a few years.

I'm not sure what having no wins against any BCS teams in a decade has to do with how or who they played before that, but let's dig into the details of their 9 career BCS wins. Which P4 teams are they beating on the road?

29-24 over Ball State in 2006 (5-7), 7th place overall MAC
44-14 over Central Michigan in 2007 (8-6) 1st place overall MAC
27-21 over Minnesota in 2007 (1-11) Last in the B1G
6-3 over Kansas in 2010 (3-9) Last in the B12
37-24 over Minnesota in 2011 (3-8) 11th in the B1G
22-7 over Colorado State in 2012 (4-8) in the MWC
24-21 over Kansas State in 2013 (8-5) 5th in the B12
34-14 over Iowa State in 2014 (2-10) Last in the B12
23-21 over Iowa in 2016 (8-5) 6th in the B1G.

I'd say that they beat 3 quality teams, which isn't trying to damn them with faint praise, it's just being accurate. in their victories they faced a combined record of 42-69 (.378}, if you take out the non-p4 schools it turns into even more cupcake city 29-56 (.341). They have had 2 coaches since they won against an FBS opponent, and last I checked we didn't use what people did in 2016 to determine what they can do now.

They have a very good OLine program, and have a pretty good history of getting dual threat QBs drafted (Wentz, Lance, Stick, Miller). I don't think they'd be at the bottom of the conference, but I do think they'd in the bottom half and probably in the bottom 3rd.

 

[InZoneU]

NDSU in the new MWC traditionally speaking is finishing at least 2nd-3rd and probably competing for 1st spot many years. Some of these takes are hilarious.

It's all gonna get funnier when SACST runs Washoe CC this year.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

NDSU in the new MWC traditionally speaking is finishing at least 2nd-3rd and probably competing for 1st spot many years. Some of these takes are hilarious.

It's all gonna get funnier when SACST runs Washoe CC this year.

With the move up to FBS and additional scholarships added, I think they would definitely be in the mix.

Currently, they'd be dangerous against anybody in a one off but the roster/depth would be an issue over 12 game hypothetical season.

Put another way. If Im Eric Harper Im absolutely not scheduling them as an OOC game.

The risk far outweighs the reward.

Same reason I wouldn't schedule any of the academies.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

He did make a compelling argument of sorts when he mentioned how Montana St. struggled to beat UNM.

That's an odd way to look at it...

Montana State an FCS program struggled to beat UNM an FBS program on the road..

Same UNM team that beat ranked WSU?

But in a one off game.

I'd enter a game with UNLV vs NDSU a little nervous.

Cougs resent yet resemble your backhanded insult. At least we beat bottom-feeder Wyoming at home. Oh, wait, we didn't. Never mind.....

 

[jmcnamaraiii]

North Dakota would be the MWs new Boise. They almost beat Colorado last year and are heavily committed to the football program.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

North Dakota would be the MWs new Boise. They almost beat Colorado last year and are heavily committed to the football program.

To put in perspective how good they've been.

On their message boards they mention that attendance has declined a bit. One of the biggest reasons mentioned..

Apathy.

Holy crap imagine being so good and so dominant your fan base is like BORING! BORING!..

 

[Couev]

North Dakota would be the MWs new Boise. They almost beat Colorado last year and are heavily committed to the football program.

I think they'd probably be pretty competitive in 2-3 years assuming they could afford the increased program costs for division 1. Their ceiling might be Boise, but I don't think they have the infrastructure/income/population to actually be a perennial threat for a playoff contender like you see in Boise. Their football stadium seats fewer people than the T&M. They don't have a good population base or media market and a relatively weak alumni base, and in the modern NIL landscape grooming your kids for 5 years in a system that takes unrated guys and develops them will be much, much harder.

We can look at contemporaries over the last 15 years and find out how long it took each FCS club to make the top 3--please note these conferences in general are much weaker than even the reduced MWC.

Lets look at the last 15 years:

WKU - Sun Belt - 3 seasons (1 FCS title, 8 playoff appearances)
Texas State - Sun Belt - 12 season (2 playoffs appearances)
UMASS - MAC - Still no .500 finishes in 13 years (1 FCS title, 8 playoff appearances)
South Alabama - Sun Belt - 10 years
Georgia State - Sun Belt 12 years, still no top 3 finishes
Appalachian State - Sun Belt - 2 years (3 FCS titles, 20 playoff appearances)
Georgia Southern - Sun Belt - 1st year (6 FCS titles, 19 playoff appearances)
Old Dominion - Sun Belt - 3 years (2 playoff appearances)
Charlotte - CUSA/AAC - 10 years, still no top 3 finishes
Coastal Carolina - Sunbelt - 4 years (6 playoff appearances)
Liberty - CUSA - 3 seasons (1 playoff appearance)
James Madison - Sunbelt - first season (2 FCS titles, 18 playoff appearances)
Sam Houston - CUSA - 2 season (1 FCS titles, 13 playoff appearances)
Jacksonville State - CUSA - 1st season (10 playoff appearances)
Kennesaw State - CUSA - 2 season no top 3 yet (4 playoff appearances)

NDSU has the best FCS resume of all those teams 10 titles in 15 appearances

So, I don't think it's crazy to predict NDSU could have instant success, but I do think that the overall strength of the MWC will be higher than what you'd see from the Sun Belt/MAC/or CUSA (though next year's sun belt might be where that transitions), so i do think it would take a few years of transition (plus, most of the totals i put before didn't count a teams 1 year usually as an independent before getting into a conference). I think the difference in our opinion is based on the predictive strength of the MWC.

 

[Gator 82]

I'm not sure what having no wins against any BCS teams in a decade has to do with how or who they played before that, but let's dig into the details of their 9 career BCS wins. Which P4 teams are they beating on the road?

29-24 over Ball State in 2006 (5-7), 7th place overall MAC
44-14 over Central Michigan in 2007 (8-6) 1st place overall MAC
27-21 over Minnesota in 2007 (1-11) Last in the B1G
6-3 over Kansas in 2010 (3-9) Last in the B12
37-24 over Minnesota in 2011 (3-8) 11th in the B1G
22-7 over Colorado State in 2012 (4-8) in the MWC
24-21 over Kansas State in 2013 (8-5) 5th in the B12
34-14 over Iowa State in 2014 (2-10) Last in the B12
23-21 over Iowa in 2016 (8-5) 6th in the B1G.

I'd say that they beat 3 quality teams, which isn't trying to damn them with faint praise, it's just being accurate. in their victories they faced a combined record of 42-69 (.378}, if you take out the non-p4 schools it turns into even more cupcake city 29-56 (.341). They have had 2 coaches since they won against an FBS opponent, and last I checked we didn't use what people did in 2016 to determine what they can do now.

They have a very good OLine program, and have a pretty good history of getting dual threat QBs drafted (Wentz, Lance, Stick, Miller). I don't think they'd be at the bottom of the conference, but I do think they'd in the bottom half and probably in the bottom 3rd.

Over the last 15 years, NDSU has a better record over Power Conference teams than almost every current or former MWC team.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Interesting development.

 

[Hey Reb 17]

View embedded media

Interesting development.

NIU travel partner…

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

NIU travel partner…

Possibly. Id be all for it.

MWC doesn't 'need' more members. With 8 full plus NIU football only scheduling for football is good. 8 conference 4 OOC...

I know a lot of people argue expanding dilutes the product and there is some merit to that.

I just don't think Gloria stays put though.

If you can add NDSU and Sac State I think you do it. Adds another California market. And top FCS schools in NDSU.

She could attempt to circle back to Sam Houston State again depending on mediation to get a second Texas School.

CUSA, is about to lose La Tech to the SBC to replace Texas State.

If I'm the SBC I'm kicking tires on Western KY and Liberty as well. If those schools were to bolt CUSA would be all but dead.

MWC could pass on NDSU (I don't think they should) add NMSU and Sam Houston and drive the final nail in CUSA. Which would be kinda sad to be honest. That conference has been gutted so many times.

 

[Couev]

Over the last 15 years, NDSU has a better record over Power Conference teams than almost every current or former MWC team.

I haven't confirmed that but it sounds right, which makes it extra weird that they haven't won a game over an FBS team since 2016. And it wasn't like they were rolling into a lot of high profile games. The combined win percentage on those 6 P4 wins was 0.341 and included 3 last place P4 teams.

In the last 10 years they're 1-2 against FBS (and also P4). And a 0.333 winning percentage isn't nearly as impressive. Hell, if I change the period for the stats to the last 9 years they're 0-2. Do you think the last 9 years is more pertinent than the last 15? Or is the last 5?

I do think they'd acclimate pretty quickly, and they are the premier FCS team of all-time. But i think the transition year would put them in the bottom third of MWC in 2026. You disagree, but neither of us will ever know!

 

[dcut03]

Considering FCS schools making the jump almost always struggle, and they always jump to conferences that are much worse than the MW, even a gutted MW.

Not saying that it couldn't happen, it most definitely could, but expecting them to dominate or even compete for a championship would be a bit of a tall ask.

Which is why I am against adding them, or any FCS team for that matter. Historically it is a really tough transition.

Other things to think about. They are almost always viewed as a cupcake when playing FBS teams. THey are often looking at the most vanilla of game plans and they can catch teams sleeping a little. Not to discredit their wins, because they have been good enough to do that, but it's not like they have gotten the same prep that a Boise would get.

UC Davis should start really competing in order to get an official invite, and honestly they should prove their worth in the Subelt or something. Same thing with GCU if they field a football team.

 

[Gator 82]

I haven't confirmed that but it sounds right, which makes it extra weird that they haven't won a game over an FBS team since 2016. And it wasn't like they were rolling into a lot of high profile games. The combined win percentage on those 6 P4 wins was 0.341 and included 3 last place P4 teams.

In the last 10 years they're 1-2 against FBS (and also P4). And a 0.333 winning percentage isn't nearly as impressive. Hell, if I change the period for the stats to the last 9 years they're 0-2. Do you think the last 9 years is more pertinent than the last 15? Or is the last 5?

I do think they'd acclimate pretty quickly, and they are the premier FCS team of all-time. But i think the transition year would put them in the bottom third of MWC in 2026. You disagree, but neither of us will ever know!

I dont disagree completely, which is why I said that I think they would be a top 4 or 5 team in the current version of the MWC. Let’s take last year’s MWC for example. After UNLV and Boise State, there was a real drop off in quality. Take CSU, CSU lost to Colorado in Ft. Collins by a score of 28-9. That same Colorado team 2 weeks earlier beats NDSU in Boulder 31-26.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

I haven't confirmed that but it sounds right, which makes it extra weird that they haven't won a game over an FBS team since 2016. And it wasn't like they were rolling into a lot of high profile games. The combined win percentage on those 6 P4 wins was 0.341 and included 3 last place P4 teams.

In the last 10 years they're 1-2 against FBS (and also P4). And a 0.333 winning percentage isn't nearly as impressive. Hell, if I change the period for the stats to the last 9 years they're 0-2. Do you think the last 9 years is more pertinent than the last 15? Or is the last 5?

I do think they'd acclimate pretty quickly, and they are the premier FCS team of all-time. But i think the transition year would put them in the bottom third of MWC in 2026. You disagree, but neither of us will ever know!

Actually think we may see it...

 

[Masked_rebel]

Considering FCS schools making the jump almost always struggle, and they always jump to conferences that are much worse than the MW, even a gutted MW.

Not saying that it couldn't happen, it most definitely could, but expecting them to dominate or even compete for a championship would be a bit of a tall ask.

Which is why I am against adding them, or any FCS team for that matter. Historically it is a really tough transition.

Other things to think about. They are almost always viewed as a cupcake when playing FBS teams. THey are often looking at the most vanilla of game plans and they can catch teams sleeping a little. Not to discredit their wins, because they have been good enough to do that, but it's not like they have gotten the same prep that a Boise would get.

UC Davis should start really competing in order to get an official invite, and honestly they should prove their worth in the Subelt or something. Same thing with GCU if they field a football team.

I agree. FCS teams will struggle and its silly to think that they wont finish near the bottom. The MWC might not be the same old MWC, but its still better than Sunbelt or CUSA and even with their past success, they go from being the top of the heap with recruiting at FCS and facilities at FCS to bottom of the pile in FBS. Its not a straight forward or they wouldve done so years ago.

 

[Rebel1986]

Possibly. Id be all for it.

MWC doesn't 'need' more members. With 8 full plus NIU football only scheduling for football is good. 8 conference 4 OOC...

I know a lot of people argue expanding dilutes the product and there is some merit to that.

I just don't think Gloria stays put though.

If you can add NDSU and Sac State I think you do it. Adds another California market. And top FCS schools in NDSU.

She could attempt to circle back to Sam Houston State again depending on mediation to get a second Texas School.

CUSA, is about to lose La Tech to the SBC to replace Texas State.

If I'm the SBC I'm kicking tires on Western KY and Liberty as well. If those schools were to bolt CUSA would be all but dead.

MWC could pass on NDSU (I don't think they should) add NMSU and Sam Houston and drive the final nail in CUSA. Which would be kinda sad to be honest. That conference has been gutted so many times.

I am not sure it would ever pencil out for La Tech to leave CUSA for the SBC? Sunbelt conference media contract $1,000,000 per year through 2031. CUSA conference media contract $750,000 through 2027. Most likely the revised CUSA contract will be similar to the of the Sunbelt in 2027. The cost to leave the CUSA is between $1.5-3 million. Depending on the new contract in 2027 it would take La Tech 6-10 years or longer just to break even. If in 2027 CUSA can't work out a media deal, or it drops way down in funds, then La Tech could walk out with a much smaller or no buyout to leave CUSA.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

I am not sure it would ever pencil out for La Tech to leave CUSA for the SBC? Sunbelt conference media contract $1,000,000 per year through 2031. CUSA conference media contract $750,000 through 2027. Most likely the revised CUSA contract will be similar to the of the Sunbelt in 2027. The cost to leave the CUSA is between $1.5-3 million. Depending on the new contract in 2027 it would take La Tech 6-10 years or longer just to break even. If in 2027 CUSA can't work out a media deal, or it drops way down in funds, then La Tech could walk out with a much smaller or no buyout to leave CUSA.

Already rumors that La Tech is top target.

Sun Belt & Louisiana Tech Conference Realignment: Why The Bulldogs Could Be Departing Conference USA

Louisiana Tech may be the next team the Sun Belt looks to add if Texas State leaves. Here's why LA Tech would be at the top of the list.

herosports.com

CUSA is in real trouble.

 

[Rebel1986]

Already rumors that La Tech is top target.

Sun Belt & Louisiana Tech Conference Realignment: Why The Bulldogs Could Be Departing Conference USA

Louisiana Tech may be the next team the Sun Belt looks to add if Texas State leaves. Here's why LA Tech would be at the top of the list.

herosports.com

CUSA is in real trouble.

That is why I think they can wait, because if the media contract is smaller or nonexistent in 2027, then there would be no penalty or a smaller penalty to leave!

 

[Boston Rebel 2]

Possibly. Id be all for it.

MWC doesn't 'need' more members. With 8 full plus NIU football only scheduling for football is good. 8 conference 4 OOC...

I know a lot of people argue expanding dilutes the product and there is some merit to that.

I just don't think Gloria stays put though.

If you can add NDSU and Sac State I think you do it. Adds another California market. And top FCS schools in NDSU.

She could attempt to circle back to Sam Houston State again depending on mediation to get a second Texas School.

CUSA, is about to lose La Tech to the SBC to replace Texas State.

If I'm the SBC I'm kicking tires on Western KY and Liberty as well. If those schools were to bolt CUSA would be all but dead.

MWC could pass on NDSU (I don't think they should) add NMSU and Sam Houston and drive the final nail in CUSA. Which would be kinda sad to be honest. That conference has been gutted so many times.

Who's in for a road trip to Fargo in November? Can't wait for that tailgate Lutefisk.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Who's in for a road trip to Fargo in November? Can't wait for that tailgate Lutefisk.

Oh hell yeah!

 

[dcut03]

Possibly. Id be all for it.

MWC doesn't 'need' more members. With 8 full plus NIU football only scheduling for football is good. 8 conference 4 OOC...

I know a lot of people argue expanding dilutes the product and there is some merit to that.

I just don't think Gloria stays put though.

If you can add NDSU and Sac State I think you do it. Adds another California market. And top FCS schools in NDSU.

She could attempt to circle back to Sam Houston State again depending on mediation to get a second Texas School.

CUSA, is about to lose La Tech to the SBC to replace Texas State.

If I'm the SBC I'm kicking tires on Western KY and Liberty as well. If those schools were to bolt CUSA would be all but dead.

MWC could pass on NDSU (I don't think they should) add NMSU and Sam Houston and drive the final nail in CUSA. Which would be kinda sad to be honest. That conference has been gutted so many times.

First move of all of those is Sam Houston State.

They were NDSU a few years ago. A top FCS team that was a perennial championship contender. They have already suffered the lumps of the transition and have overcome them to being an upper team in a lower conference.

They are expanding their home field this year.

They are in Texas and wouldn't cost 5 million to upgrade and it gives you a UTEP travel partner, even if they are nearly a nearly 10 hour drive from each other (Texas is freaking huge).

Hard pass on anyone else. Let them prove themselves in the CUSA or MAC first.

And yes it would dilute our already paltry media value. We have plenty of schools, and plenty of football schools. Let the MW protect themselves from UNLV's departure AFTER we announce that we are leaving for the B12

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

First move of all of those is Sam Houston State.

They were NDSU a few years ago. A top FCS team that was a perennial championship contender. They have already suffered the lumps of the transition and have overcome them to being an upper team in a lower conference.

They are expanding their home field this year.

They are in Texas and wouldn't cost 5 million to upgrade and it gives you a UTEP travel partner, even if they are nearly a nearly 10 hour drive from each other (Texas is freaking huge).

Hard pass on anyone else. Let them prove themselves in the CUSA or MAC first.

And yes it would dilute our already paltry media value. We have plenty of schools, and plenty of football schools. Let the MW protect themselves from UNLV's departure AFTER we announce that we are leaving for the B12

Well yeah..

If I'm running the conference I currently have some leverage.

That leverage is I have an actual conference.

MWC gets raided or has departures. Gloria would be sitting at 7 possibly 6 members (UNLV/AFA gone).

You are now approaching schools who know that you need them. You've lost ability to bargain.

I'd rather add a Sac State, NDSU, Sam Houston now. Go through the lumps building up their brands and hoping elevate the perception of the conference over time. You add now you get them at the price you want them at. If they become survival adds, that narrative changes.

She was able to save the conference this time but there were assets she won't have in the future. Hawaii needed a home. Easy add. MWC was an upgrade over CUSA for UTEP. Easy enough add.

UNLV / AFA leave that gap between CUSA and MWC shrinks even more.

Always buy low.

 

[dcut03]

Well yeah..

If I'm running the conference I currently have some leverage.

That leverage is I have an actual conference.

MWC gets raided or has departures. Gloria would be sitting at 7 possibly 6 members (UNLV/AFA gone).

You are now approaching schools who know that you need them. You've lost ability to bargain.

I'd rather add a Sac State, NDSU, Sam Houston now. Go through the lumps building up their brands and hoping elevate the perception of the conference over time. You add now you get them at the price you want them at. If they become survival adds, that narrative changes.

She was able to save the conference this time but there were assets she won't have in the future. Hawaii needed a home. Easy add. MWC was an upgrade over CUSA for UTEP. Easy enough add.

UNLV / AFA leave that gap between CUSA and MWC shrinks even more.

Always buy low.

Not worth it to buy low.

By buying low, we are just lowering our media value even further. More mouths to feed with the CFP standard payouts, sharing of credits, etc.

In the day and age where running a athletic department is as expensive as it has ever been, the focus should be to maximize the guaranteed media payouts.

The PAC has been operating that way, sure they took lumps with USU and TxState. but the MW has been expanding just to expand, adding more mouths to feed that offer little in media return.

Just paying off NDSU and SAC states 5 million fee with cost UNLV nearly 2.5 million dollars from lost bonus money alone.

At this point the only threat to leave is UNLV and that is unfortunately a relatively low prospect. Even to the PAC, since the cost of leaving at this point will be more than it is worth for sure. And that is only IF they can somehow get out of the GOR. which has specific language against such a move. In many ways UNLV has essentially shut the door on the prospect of that with the signing of the GOR, at least for the next several years. Same with AFA with both the PAC and the AAC.

If Clemson and FSU can't get out of their GOR, UNLV and AFA certainly won't.

No one else is good enough to leave. So why add more mouths to feed, with high up front costs now?

If UNLV gets poached, the MW has 2 years to try to replace them, or NOT! They have their minimum. Sure it will hurt but they wouldn't have to do anything to stay a conference.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Not worth it to buy low.

By buying low, we are just lowering our media value even further. More mouths to feed with the CFP standard payouts, sharing of credits, etc.

In the day and age where running a athletic department is as expensive as it has ever been, the focus should be to maximize the guaranteed media payouts.

The PAC has been operating that way, sure they took lumps with USU and TxState. but the MW has been expanding just to expand, adding more mouths to feed that offer little in media return.

Just paying off NDSU and SAC states 5 million fee with cost UNLV nearly 2.5 million dollars from lost bonus money alone.

At this point the only threat to leave is UNLV and that is unfortunately a relatively low prospect. Even to the PAC, since the cost of leaving at this point will be more than it is worth for sure. And that is only IF they can somehow get out of the GOR. which has specific language against such a move. In many ways UNLV has essentially shut the door on the prospect of that with the signing of the GOR, at least for the next several years. Same with AFA with both the PAC and the AAC.

If Clemson and FSU can't get out of their GOR, UNLV and AFA certainly won't.

No one else is good enough to leave. So why add more mouths to feed, with high up front costs now?

If UNLV gets poached, the MW has 2 years to try to replace them, or NOT! They have their minimum. Sure it will hurt but they wouldn't have to do anything to stay a conference.

NDSU would not devalue the media deal.

They would draw as well as anybody left in the conference not named UNLV and possibly AFA and likely better than a some.

 

[Gator 82]

NDSU would not devalue the media deal.

They would draw as well as anybody left in the conference not named UNLV and possibly AFA and likely better than a some.

Just a fun fact, Colorado's season opening win vs. NDSU last season averaged 4.8 million viewers and peaked at 5.6 million viewers.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Just a fun fact, Colorado's season opening win vs. NDSU last season averaged 4.8 million viewers and peaked at 5.6 million viewers.

I avoided using that number. I'm trying to use 'like' examples. MWC vs MWC type games. Games vs P4 schools especially CU with all the Sanders hype are inflated. So kinda unfair to include them.

I just don't get the idea, agree with the idea that NDSU would hurt our media deal all that much if at all.

 

[Gator 82]

I avoided using that number. I'm trying to use 'like' examples. MWC vs MWC type games. Games vs P4 schools especially CU with all the Sanders hype are inflated. So kinda unfair to include them.

I just don't get the idea, agree with the idea that NDSU would hurt our media deal all that much if at all.

I agree on the media deal, but the CU vs NDSU game was the 18th highest viewed game in CU history and the 3rd most viewed game in 2024 for CU.

 

[Masked_rebel]

Just a fun fact, Colorado's season opening win vs. NDSU last season averaged 4.8 million viewers and peaked at 5.6 million viewers.

I mean, come on... CU was drawing almost that many viewers on average because of the Travis Hunter, Sheduer and Deion show... not because fans tuned in to watch FCS powerhouse NDSU....

Bringing in any additional programs to the MWC hurts UNLV. period. It takes money out of our pocket, it dilutes the media deal, the NCAA payouts, the CFP payout.. Why anyone is advocating for adding more teams right now makes no sense. And Yes, all 4 FCS programs that could transition would struggle for likely the extent of our remaining time in the MWC.

 

[dcut03]

I avoided using that number. I'm trying to use 'like' examples. MWC vs MWC type games. Games vs P4 schools especially CU with all the Sanders hype are inflated. So kinda unfair to include them.

I just don't get the idea, agree with the idea that NDSU would hurt our media deal all that much if at all.

NDSU would not devalue the media deal.

They would draw as well as anybody left in the conference not named UNLV and possibly AFA and likely better than a some.

Truth is there is no actual helpful data (publicly) that tells us what kind of value NDSU actually brings for regular season games. One game on ESPN 2 against one of the other biggest names in the FCS, a channel that never gets viewership below 100k, doesn't really tell us much as all. Neither do playoff games, and that's all we have.

What we do know is that it is a tiny market pretty far away, with bad weather. That it will cost 5 mil up front ( which they could front to be fair), and that FCS teams, even the best ones, often struggle with the transition. And they always struggle in a weaker conference than ours.

Travel partner for NIU? sure, but that really is the only positive I can think of.

It will 100% lower our media deal guaranteed. How much is the question. If the base amount that the conference is targeting is the same 3.6 mill per year per team, there is no way in hell that NDSU is worth that now as a FBS school. Their last media deal that I can find was 1.2 per year. And it looks like the MVC has teams negotiate their own TV rights, so this number was not reduced from sharing from lesser schools. This was from 2016, so it is likely better than that now.

They have as good potential as any FCS to actually do well in the FBS. I get that. By no means would it be a guarantee.

So let them find another, lesser conference to prove their worth and spend their 5 million. Poaching from that conference will actually be cheaper since the buyout will likely be less than 5 million ( not counting whatever buyout they have on top of that currently, but I imagine it would be pretty low).

Just like Sam Houston. they have taken their lumps and proven their worth. But they would ALSO drop our media value, but at least they are proven.

Or we can stand pat and not give away more of our precious money.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

I mean, come on... CU was drawing almost that many viewers on average because of the Travis Hunter, Sheduer and Deion show... not because fans tuned in to watch FCS powerhouse NDSU....

Bringing in any additional programs to the MWC hurts UNLV. period. It takes money out of our pocket, it dilutes the media deal, the NCAA payouts, the CFP payout.. Why anyone is advocating for adding more teams right now makes no sense. And Yes, all 4 FCS programs that could transition would struggle for likely the extent of our remaining time in the MWC.

Assuming of course we are getting out if the MWC.

There is absolutely no guarantee that will happen.

Nobody is advocating to add teams just for the sake of adding teams, in relation to UNLV.

Its from the angle of a commisioner who's current conference has been reduced significantly.

If you know for certain UNLV is leaving then wouldn't Gloria be privy to that as well?

She's just going to sit on her hands for five years, and then try and add?

I don't see the logic in that.

As for devaluing the media deal. If current media deal was paying 5 mil AAV, an add worth a net of zero would drop the deal 500k AAV. Do you honestly think NDSU would be zero net value to a media deal?

Is that great for UNLV, obviously not, but it helps solidify and bolster the conference.

You think if the MWC gets forced to have weekday games NIU is going to stick around? Thats why they left the MAC.

Was PAC getting the old MWC deal a death blow to MWC? No but it can't be spun as a nothing burger either.

 

[Rebel1986]

Assuming of course we are getting out if the MWC.

There is absolutely no guarantee that will happen.

Nobody is advocating to add teams just for the sake of adding teams, in relation to UNLV.

Its from the angle of a commisioner who's current conference has been reduced significantly.

If you know for certain UNLV is leaving then wouldn't Gloria be privy to that as well?

She's just going to sit on her hands for five years, and then try and add?

I don't see the logic in that.

As for devaluing the media deal. If current media deal was paying 5 mil AAV, an add worth a net of zero would drop the deal 500k AAV. Do you honestly think NDSU would be zero net value to a media deal?

Is that great for UNLV, obviously not, but it helps solidify and bolster the conference.

You think if the MWC gets forced to have weekday games NIU is going to stick around? Thats why they left the MAC.

Was PAC getting the old MWC deal a death blow to MWC? No but it can't be spun as a nothing burger either.

Unless UNLV has gone back to the past idiots running the athletic department, there is no way Gloria would be privy to any future plans for UNLV.