I know alot of people aren't going to like it because, lets face it, you have to candy-coat stuff or straight blow smoke otherwise you are a hater for bruising their most tender sensibilities. Middle ground doesn't seem to be tolerated too well anymore, it's pick an extreme and if you do take a middle ground, you'll be illogically clumped into an extreme corner anyway. Whatever, I'm not cut from the cloth of candy coating.
This is more "big picture/long term" opinions.
I cannot pretend to know how things will play out under Otzelberger. Anyone that "knows" is full of crap. This isn't going out on a limb obviously, it's a safe bet; he will fall somewhere between Munchies and Kruger. Further, I think he will be closer to Kruger than Munchies. I'm doubtful he will fare better than Kruger, but it's a possibility. Even so, Kruger was the 2nd most successful coach we've had since Tark and it wasn't "good enough". We can argue back and forth whether it was actually good enough or not but the powers that be made no effort to retain because there was too much power resistance. So, in spite of this downward spiral we are in the midst of, one that should easily upturn here shortly, the cutoff line seems to be just north of what Kruger achieved. This isn't a one season thing, this is a tenure at UNLV thing. It takes a little time and hopefully it ramps up in time. Remember, Kruger wasn't good here his first two years, we underachieved given the talent level, then we hit our peak over the next two seasons. Otz needs to be given some time to point the ship in the right direction and actually progress instead of stagnate or decline.
I've talked to alot of people in the know over the past five or six weeks, trying to get a feel for some things, some things that could lend some insight. That doesn't mean things are spot on, it's all opinion at this point. But this is my takeaway from those conversations.
I know that at his press conference, Otz made a statement about pursuing elite level talent. I don't think that's going to happen often at all. It may or may not matter. I'm of the belief that if you want to reach high level and remain there, you need some regular high level talent. I don't think we are going to see that based on conversations. I don't see us headbutting with bluebloods for kids. There's some on court (lack of continuity/players leaving early) and off court risks (just read any sports news) that won't be taken, IMO. So that will leave us with largely three-star 100-200 level recruits for the most part. Now that doesn't mean you CAN'T win, I'm not saying that at all. But I do believe it gives you that ceiling. Which alot of people are ok with and that's just fine. If he fares well in the transfer market, that can change things a bit. Yeah, it sounds like Kruger recruiting. Kruger's recruiting here was fine, it gave us what we ended up earning. But I think most of us agree we could have used another bump or two with high level guys (Findlay Prep upper tier, for example, it was there for the taking) to put us into the next strata and it's a direction he just wouldn't venture.
His style will obviously be much different than Kruger's and I'm interested to see how all that unfolds. I have always liked high scoring offenses, I like efficient offenses. That's what I want to see. How things are handled defensively will be interesting.
Some things that are going to be key are player retainment, player buy in, player development. People talk X's and O's so much, that's not what makes a college coach successful. It's seemingly where all credit and blame is placed. But those other things are so much more important in my opinion. This isn't rocket science, they've played ball their entire lives, they have a good feel for X's and O's. It's the other stuff. Buy in and retainment were a big issue under Rice, they weren't huge issues under Menchies. It was a bit more hit and miss with Kruger, but they were all in good shape when we hit our peak and I do not think that's coincidental at all. Otz has gotta hit on all of them - retain his players, coach them up, get them all on the same page. If that happens, he will have success, even if recruiting is mediocre. And I do expect it to be pretty mediocre on at least the HS level - maybe it can be enhanced or even greatly enhanced through the JC or transfer route (JC's and prep are flip flopping in importance once again). That's my hope.
So heading into the season, at this point, it's hard for me to use the word excited. I'm not. However, I am interested. Genuinely. With Menz, I had very little interest. Predicting an early demise with that one was just way too easy. Those keys I mentioned - player retainment won't be revealed until time passes - but player buy in and player development - along with style, yeah, I'm truly interested in that progression. It's refreshing. Exciting, for me at this point, not so much because it's more wait and see. But that he's not backing away from expectations and isn't afraid to play teams and he's not afraid to get on the road, that part does excite me. But I'm reluctant to think of any high level success that includes winning the MWCT and post season success. Maybe in time, maybe after the first year or two..... Right now, I just don't have that excitement.
Just an opinion, people.
This is more "big picture/long term" opinions.
I cannot pretend to know how things will play out under Otzelberger. Anyone that "knows" is full of crap. This isn't going out on a limb obviously, it's a safe bet; he will fall somewhere between Munchies and Kruger. Further, I think he will be closer to Kruger than Munchies. I'm doubtful he will fare better than Kruger, but it's a possibility. Even so, Kruger was the 2nd most successful coach we've had since Tark and it wasn't "good enough". We can argue back and forth whether it was actually good enough or not but the powers that be made no effort to retain because there was too much power resistance. So, in spite of this downward spiral we are in the midst of, one that should easily upturn here shortly, the cutoff line seems to be just north of what Kruger achieved. This isn't a one season thing, this is a tenure at UNLV thing. It takes a little time and hopefully it ramps up in time. Remember, Kruger wasn't good here his first two years, we underachieved given the talent level, then we hit our peak over the next two seasons. Otz needs to be given some time to point the ship in the right direction and actually progress instead of stagnate or decline.
I've talked to alot of people in the know over the past five or six weeks, trying to get a feel for some things, some things that could lend some insight. That doesn't mean things are spot on, it's all opinion at this point. But this is my takeaway from those conversations.
I know that at his press conference, Otz made a statement about pursuing elite level talent. I don't think that's going to happen often at all. It may or may not matter. I'm of the belief that if you want to reach high level and remain there, you need some regular high level talent. I don't think we are going to see that based on conversations. I don't see us headbutting with bluebloods for kids. There's some on court (lack of continuity/players leaving early) and off court risks (just read any sports news) that won't be taken, IMO. So that will leave us with largely three-star 100-200 level recruits for the most part. Now that doesn't mean you CAN'T win, I'm not saying that at all. But I do believe it gives you that ceiling. Which alot of people are ok with and that's just fine. If he fares well in the transfer market, that can change things a bit. Yeah, it sounds like Kruger recruiting. Kruger's recruiting here was fine, it gave us what we ended up earning. But I think most of us agree we could have used another bump or two with high level guys (Findlay Prep upper tier, for example, it was there for the taking) to put us into the next strata and it's a direction he just wouldn't venture.
His style will obviously be much different than Kruger's and I'm interested to see how all that unfolds. I have always liked high scoring offenses, I like efficient offenses. That's what I want to see. How things are handled defensively will be interesting.
Some things that are going to be key are player retainment, player buy in, player development. People talk X's and O's so much, that's not what makes a college coach successful. It's seemingly where all credit and blame is placed. But those other things are so much more important in my opinion. This isn't rocket science, they've played ball their entire lives, they have a good feel for X's and O's. It's the other stuff. Buy in and retainment were a big issue under Rice, they weren't huge issues under Menchies. It was a bit more hit and miss with Kruger, but they were all in good shape when we hit our peak and I do not think that's coincidental at all. Otz has gotta hit on all of them - retain his players, coach them up, get them all on the same page. If that happens, he will have success, even if recruiting is mediocre. And I do expect it to be pretty mediocre on at least the HS level - maybe it can be enhanced or even greatly enhanced through the JC or transfer route (JC's and prep are flip flopping in importance once again). That's my hope.
So heading into the season, at this point, it's hard for me to use the word excited. I'm not. However, I am interested. Genuinely. With Menz, I had very little interest. Predicting an early demise with that one was just way too easy. Those keys I mentioned - player retainment won't be revealed until time passes - but player buy in and player development - along with style, yeah, I'm truly interested in that progression. It's refreshing. Exciting, for me at this point, not so much because it's more wait and see. But that he's not backing away from expectations and isn't afraid to play teams and he's not afraid to get on the road, that part does excite me. But I'm reluctant to think of any high level success that includes winning the MWCT and post season success. Maybe in time, maybe after the first year or two..... Right now, I just don't have that excitement.
Just an opinion, people.
