Cal prediction
- Thread starter Rebelsss
- Start date
I am really intrigued with this UNLV team. IMO UNLV has one of the top receiving corp on the west coast and a qb who is mobile and can get them the ball. That makes this team dangerous and can open up the running game.
45-30 UNLV.
45-30 UNLV.
Hey everyone! I’m from Cal rivals and I’d just like to say how much I’ve appreciated this site for our game prep. I love that UNLV has an active fan blog and this Saturdays game will be a good one.
while it’s no surprise to see so many UNLV picks here, I couldn’t hold my tongue on this last one. Cal hasn’t allowed 45 points or more to any opponent in the last six years. The only team to come close was ucla last year (42 points). The odds UNLV drops 45 on cal are significantly lower than the rebels winning the game outright, if you’re expecting to drop 45 on cal, that would be more points than any p12 team has scored on Cal during a single game in the Wilcox era.
Welcome @uplandbear. What's the consensus on your board regarding the game? I personally think that Cal is likely to win by 7-10, but think we have a punchers chance if we are able to limit the big plays that Cal gets, while getting a few on our end. Our team appears to be improved from last year, which we were close in a lot of games, but rarely could get over the hump.
Most on our board think cal wins by two touchdowns, but we acknowledge UNLV is much more potent offensively with Brumfield and White. Ricky White is a stud and he will most likely have Cal’s full attention, it’s going to be up to other players stepping up for UNLV to move the ball consistently.
Jadyn Ott will be a lot to deal with if he gets the snaps, and Cal’s lines on both ends will be much better than Idaho State. UNLV defense will have to step up for the rebels to have a shot, but I’m really looking forward to this game.
Along that same line of thinking, hopefully UNLV's D line is better than Cal's last opponent. The ability of our OL and DL to hold there own will be critical this game. Ott had a nice 1st game as a freshman. Hopefully he gets held to under 70 yards rushing this game.
Edit to add that Ricky White is legit, but definitely not the only stud WR on this team. Keep an eye out for Kyle Williams and Jeff Weimer. If the defense tries to take away Ricky White, these other 2 will put up some good numbers. Weimer on 5-15 yard plays, and Williams possibly with a few longer receptions.
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We got a shot but you don't see many 13.5 point dogs winning outright. With that being said Keys to victory:
1. Outscore your opponent, of course right but we need to put up 31 to win.
2. Right side of OLine has to hold up in passing downs. Watching film on game Tiger Shanks is still below average RT and I hate to say that but he gets beat every way a)speed rush b) bull rush c)blitz. I overload his side every time he picks up about half the blitzes.
3. Limit those 20 plus yard touchdown plays. Oliver got beat bad we need to clean that up.
4. A.Robbins was great but I was equally impressed with C. Reece we could use a combination of both. He can break one.
5. Win the turnover battle.
I could go on but 5 is enough. We got a legit shot like LVRebel2000 said, "We got a punchers Chance."
1. Outscore your opponent, of course right but we need to put up 31 to win.
2. Right side of OLine has to hold up in passing downs. Watching film on game Tiger Shanks is still below average RT and I hate to say that but he gets beat every way a)speed rush b) bull rush c)blitz. I overload his side every time he picks up about half the blitzes.
3. Limit those 20 plus yard touchdown plays. Oliver got beat bad we need to clean that up.
4. A.Robbins was great but I was equally impressed with C. Reece we could use a combination of both. He can break one.
5. Win the turnover battle.
I could go on but 5 is enough. We got a legit shot like LVRebel2000 said, "We got a punchers Chance."
If the O line doesn’t hold, it will be a long day for Doug and the receiving corps. Yeah, he looked really good last game, he had time and we outmatched them badly with receivers. If he gets time, these receivers will find space and spread the field and UNLV will have a shot. I think it’s a year where the running game will rely heavily upon our passing success to open up the fun game. I don’t think it’ll be the other way around.
But football typically comes down to the trenches and turnovers anyway.
Are we going to be able to watch this somewhere? I looked at the UNLV website and I didn’t recognize where it said it’s broadcasting.
It’s on Pac-12 Network Bay Area.
I get two Pac-12 Network stations on my cable but not Bay Area.
Maybe Sling or Fubu TV has all of their feeds, if so sign up for the free week trial? I think Fubu does?
This is annoying that it's not on the Pac12 network normal channel. Didn't a local channel say that they were going to pick up the games that aren't being shown otherwise? If nobody in Vegas can access this channel, it should get picked up somehow, or at least streamed online.
I know it’s locally On radio. I’ll be in Idaho, however, and I’m hoping that I can pick the radio channel up through the Internet. Does anyone know if this will be possible. Or, Will the Cal radio broadcast be available on Internet.
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Here's my point and IMO this is being overlooked. The Pac 12 has been in serious decline over the last 5 years in football and that is part of the reason USC and UCLA are jumping ship. Also, going into the season Cal was ranked 69th in the CBS power rankings. That's closer to the MWC than the SEC or BIG.
I will admit it is a small sample. But it's not like Cal has dominated the MWC teams head-to-head over the last 10 years and this may be a good reason why they don't schedule many MWC schools. Cal is 2-3 against the MWC over the last 10 years losing twice to Reno and once to SDSU. The two wins were over SDSU and Hawaii.
This game is winnable!
I will admit it is a small sample. But it's not like Cal has dominated the MWC teams head-to-head over the last 10 years and this may be a good reason why they don't schedule many MWC schools. Cal is 2-3 against the MWC over the last 10 years losing twice to Reno and once to SDSU. The two wins were over SDSU and Hawaii.
This game is winnable!
Of course it's winnable. But just as you demonstrated with Cal, UNLV has not exactly fared well against either MWC or PAC 12 teams in the past 10 years. I'd like to think that this years team is different, but the week 1 opponent was expected to finish at the bottom of the Big Sky conference, so it's hard to gage how much we've improved as of yet. Fingers crossed that we can scrape out a win on the road, as road wins have been hard to come by as well.
I hope you're right, but Cal returns a fair amount of dudes of the #33 defense from last year...
If they are capable of dropping 45 on Cal, there's no excuse for them not to be able to get to bowl eligibility, unless the defense struggles badly..
Just to be clear, I found out that the Pac12 listed is not broadcast in LV. Why even bother listing it then?
I looked up the schedule for channel 125 on Saturday. It does not show the game being broadcast.
I agree on all points! But will add to your comment on why this year could be different. Last year UNLV was close in Arroyo's 2nd year losing 6 games by 8 points or less and with a young team. If Brumfield doesn't get hurt it's a different year. Just as important, UNLV adds 30 transfers to fill gaps in the roster and now UNLV is bigger, deeper and added some serious offensive weapons.
What made an impression on me at the Idaho State game was not just the way UNLV won or how good Ricky White is for an example. But I don't remember watching a UNLV team in warm ups that actually passed the "eye test" like this group. Even under Robinson UNLV was on the smallish side. In contrast, UNLV actually looked like a legit D1-a when contrasted with the Idaho State squad.
I found a way that looks like it may work, assuming you have the Pac 12 network as part of your Cox (or whatever provider) package.
This link takes you to the pac-12 website, at which point you can log in with your service provider, which in my case is Cox.
https://pac-12.com/football/event/2022/09/10/unlv-california
I'm not 100% it will work, but it seems like it will.
This link takes you to the pac-12 website, at which point you can log in with your service provider, which in my case is Cox.
https://pac-12.com/football/event/2022/09/10/unlv-california
I'm not 100% it will work, but it seems like it will.
Bull, I don't really know how to assess the #33 ranking for Cal's defense from last year and what it means. But I do know in reviewing their schedule from last year Cal went 5-7 and lost to Reno at home. Also, they struggled against Sacramento State at home and ultimately won 42-30. (i didn't even know Sacramento State played football).
I will admit the 45 pts by UNLV might be a little optimistic. But Sac State put 30 on Cal at home last year and their QB went 29-55 for 408 yds and 2 touch downs! I see Cal as a mid level MWC team right now.
That's probably a fair comparison (Cal as a mid level MWC team). However, we've been a lower level one, and this game is on the road. I agree with you in that I think we'll be in the game, but certainly not going to bet big money on UNLV money line. I hope UNLV is legit this year though, and this is the game that proves it.
They also beat USC (albeit not a great USC squad) And played a ranked Oregon team to within 7...
They were #33 in total defense. That number can be skewed a bit obviously based on opposition, style of play of your team and opponents. Like Army, Air Force and Navy tend to have decent rankings in total defense because they hold the ball so much opponents get fewer possessions..
If we are going off last year and how they performed they were 5-7 we were 2-10...
I think UNLV is/will be better this year, doesn't mean Cal might not be better. I don't think Cal is a very good P5 team. But we haven't been a good G5 team.
I'm reluctant to simply say Cal stinks we should win this game...
Appreciate the insights uplandbear. Ultimately we’d like to join you in the PAC (assuming Cal doesn’t bolt) so this game has even more importance to us. Hoping we can make a game of it.
I always worry about depth when playing a P-5. How many games have we hung around and later third Q, they start to pull away …
Bro you got to bet money line. This is the spot, think of us playing UNC (basketball). I'm getting that same feeling. I'm in. I've seen lines from +360 to +400. I went offshore.
On Will Hill full game ML is +380 at this time. First half is +300.
Circa didn’t show a first half but their end of game ML is +405.
I'm not much of a bettor. I'm already emotional involved since its my team, and then if I lose money too, I'd be extra pissed. Would almost be better to bet their opponent. That way if they lose, at least I win some money.
When I used to care more about UNLV than I do now I’d never bet them to win for that same reason. I never lost a bet when I bet them to lose, but would think that same way I’ll take the L if UNLV can win the game.
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No. I’m saying it seems like that any time we do battle that type of a team tooth and nail, they seem to pull away over the last 25 minutes or so
LOL...
No you said how many times has UNLV faded against a P5 team...
I was being a smart ass and said All of them..
