We ABSOLUTELY can get an at large bid. The odds are long, but no worse that back-to-back snake eyes in craps and that happens all the time. We are currently 97th in NET rankings. What is really hurting us are the two quad 4 losses. There are only 2 teams in the NET top 100 with 2 quad 4 losses and we are 1 of them. That puts huge pressure on us to get quad 1 wins. Luckily, we are in a Conference with enough teams that are quad 1. First, everything will depend on winning nearly all our games against the bottom 4 teams. That HAS to happen. Drop even 2 of those and it makes it almost impossible to make up. Then we'll need at least 6 quad 1 wins ( we have 1 ) going into the MWC Tourney and we'll most likely need another quad 1 win in the Tourney. ( seven total ) We have @ 6 more shots at quad 1 wins ( hard to exactly predict because you can never be sure who gets hot and who tanks ) The next shot is USU on Sat. Think win out at home against the top 4 teams and only lose 1 away against them. As soon as we lose two more against our remaining quad 1 opponents we are pretty much toast.
We could know if an at large is impossible within the next two weeks. We won't know we're in until the very end of the season.