Arroyo Poll
- Thread starter Rebelious1
- Start date
Would take a minimum of 8 wins for him to get a loo, and likely 9 or 10 before he’s a serious candidate. While we have a small chance at those types of win totals, I believe 7 or 8 is the most likely and think he stays if that’s the case.
I think 7-8 wins and he is gone! Turning UNLV around would put a HUGE spotlight on him. Most wont factor the intangibles with the Practice facilities and Stadium. All they will see is the results! How much credit do u give him??? For sure he gets some, but how much ??? Not every coach could do what he is doing hypothetically speaking if he gets to 8 wins within the next couple years!
Pros...
Considered a very good recruiter.
Has a lengthy resume.
Head Coaching success (TBD)
Cons...
Has bounced around a lot.
Was possibly on his way out as OC in Oregon.
Track record as an OC was a little spotty. At none of his stops did teams get significantly better.
If he were to get UNLV to. 7-8 wins this year, he'd likely get a look. Would it be enough to get a P5 job? Not sure. He'd still be sub .500 over three seasons.
I think he'd need back to back bowl seasons here to get poached..
We'll see..
He’s currently 4-18 as a head coach. Wow, we better watch out before USC and UCLA comes a callin (like Marvelous Winniiiiin’ time).
Is everyone assuming Arroyo moves on to a better job and is not fired? Is Arroyo off the hot seat after a 2-1 start?
I think it would take 2 years of 7+ wins and not getting blasted in bowl games.
If it looks like that is happening a year from now, I hope the AD gives him an extension with a huge buyout.
Would be a good problem to have, but I dont think we are far enough down that path yet to start worrying to much.
If it looks like that is happening a year from now, I hope the AD gives him an extension with a huge buyout.
Would be a good problem to have, but I dont think we are far enough down that path yet to start worrying to much.
Too early to tell. If he loses the rest of the games here on out, obviously, that would be a problem. If he wins out, yeah, he would almost certainly leave. If it's somewhere closer to the middle, probably neither happens, and he's here again next year.
Right now all I care about is Arroyo getting us bowl eligible this year! If he gets us to a bowl this year and he leaves for greener pastures in 2023/2024 then we hire Gary Patterson and we would be fine. Some might say, we maybe even better off in the long run!
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Gene Chizik was 5-19 at Iowa St when Auburn hired him and went out and won a national title. He ended up not very good overall, but I don’t think overall record, especially given Covid, would be a major indicator on what schools think of Arroyo. Winning 8 or 9 games at UNLV is a considerable achievement given what football has been the past 35 years.
Yeah it will have to be back to back. Hauck took us to a bowl game. One season won't do it. Back to back for the first time ever yeah that would do it.
I think so...
His recruiting chops will be hard for programs to ignore.
But he's got to stack some Ws as well. I'm not sure 7-5 and the John Deere Weedwhacker Bowl would be enough..
He's a great recruiter, and if the UNLV football program doesn't kill your career, then that's also saying something about what he brings to the table. But an 8 win MWC season isn't likely to get you a job that's a step up from where UNLV. To get those sort of interviews he'll need to have 2-3 successful season consecutively, or put together one truly bonkers season to be a candidate like that.
UNLV FOOTBALL WE KILL CAREERS...
Is pretty apt slogan...
Great commercial potential.
Clips of Sanford refusing to leave field vs ISU, and of course snippets of the lockeroom rant. Hauck staring dejectedly at the scoreboard thinking 'I left Montana for this s....'
I think UNLV 22 and 23 would have to be *exceptional* (10+ wins both years) to get the top programs to consider him. In 2024, if the CFP is 12 teams it is far better to be a good time in an average conference than an average team in a good conference. The winner of the MWC will have a legitimate chance to make the playoff ("legitimate").
If Oregon State calls and offers 3.5m, it might be better career and fiscally to stay at UNLV making 2.8 or 3m. Obviously that's a lot more than he's making now (soon to be 1.5m) but if we are talking 6+-wins in 22 and 8+-wins in 23s, the money will show up.
Obviously if USC or UCLA calls.. or oregon, or a handful of other specific programs, he's gone no matter what. But it's hard to imagine the timing working out for that.
If Oregon State calls and offers 3.5m, it might be better career and fiscally to stay at UNLV making 2.8 or 3m. Obviously that's a lot more than he's making now (soon to be 1.5m) but if we are talking 6+-wins in 22 and 8+-wins in 23s, the money will show up.
Obviously if USC or UCLA calls.. or oregon, or a handful of other specific programs, he's gone no matter what. But it's hard to imagine the timing working out for that.
Oregon fans, this one included wouldnt be happy with that. Although the more I see OCs and QBs under Mario Cristobal, the more I think maybe it wasn’t Arroyo being bad at UO it was Cristobal making him look bad.
This stream is getting ahead of ourselves. One game at a time and hope that we can have a much better year than so many of the previous years. It seems to me that anticipating major programs poaching our coach is very much of a defensive position. UNLV should be lining up major boosters with potential commitments in the anticipation that there be a substantial increase in salary for a job well done.
Definitely have heard Oregon fans not liking him. But if he succeeds here, Oregon fans won't have the sam inclination of "that guy sucks" that they did when we hired him.
100% agree. I'm not laying out expectations by any means. Just a path to getting to the scenario at hand. If UNLV finds a successful coach, the money will come. It won't be enough to ward off some big boys IMO, but it won't be nothing.
Game day! 5 hours out as I type. Keep up the momentum!
It's really something that precludes you from most resumes. ~~
Not sure how I missed this, Tony Knapp retired after UNLV...got him confused with Ron Meyer who helped build SMU into a power before becoming an NFL headman. Got lost in the data I guess.
| Harvey Hyde | 1st HC Job | .576 W% 4 Seasons | 2 > .500 seas. 26-19-1* | Fired by Maxon for violations | 1 season as RB Coach |
| Wayne Nunnely | 1st HC Job | .432 W% 4 Seasons | 1> .500 seas. 19-25 | Named Minority Student Affairs Director | 4 Seas NCAA position coach 14 seas NFL DL coach. |
| Jim Strong | 1st HC Job | .386 W% 4 Seasons | 1 > .500 seas. 17-27 | Agreed to end contract early | Real Estate |
| Jeff Horton | 2nd HC Job | .228 W% 5 Seasons | 1>.500 seas. 13-44 | Fired by Charlie | 2-3 interim HC @ Minnesota 17 seas NCAA Asst 4 Season NFL Asst |
| John Robinson | 4th HC Job | .400 W% 6 Seasons | 1>.500 seas. 1 .500 seas 28-42 | Retired | Retired |
| Mike Sanford | 1st HC Job | .271 W% 5 Seasons | 1>.500 Seas 16-43 | Fired by Jerry Koloskie IAD | HC @ Indiana State 18-30 2 seas NCAA Asst Faith Lutheran HC |
| Bobby Hauck | 2nd HC job | .234 W% 5 Seasons | 1>.500 Seas 15-49 | Resigned by TKM (fired) | HC at Montana 42-12 |
| Tony Sanchez | 1st HC Job | .333 W% 5 Season | 1>.500 Seas. 20-40 | Fired by DRF | 2 years NCAA Asst |
| Marcus Arroyo | 1st HC Job | .190 W% 3rd Season | 0>.500 Seas. 4-17 | ??? | ??? |
Nobody in 40 years has taken a HC position above UNLV once we're done with them, though Horton did get 5 interim games. Also, I regret spending that 25 minutes to gather data--it just made me sad.
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Wow how do you go to a bowl game and still end up with a .234 %. I guess Hauck can brag he didn’t suck as much as Horton lol. Harvey was a smashing success.
Thought I would bump this after another win.
Could Arroyo get poached?
I still say not likely unless UNLV has some magical year and finishes like 10-2 maybe 9-3.
I think he'd still have to back it up with another winning season.
Although, his ability as a recruiter might make an AD take a shot.
But.
In the event he did, I don't think UNLV would necessarily have to look too long or very far for his replacement.
DC Keith Heyward might be an option...The defense has been as good as we've seen since the Robinson days and it's the first year in his system. The most impressive thing to me is how well the defense has played in the 2nd half of games thus far.
Obviously you want an AD to conduct a search for the best candidates. But he might actually already be here...
Could Arroyo get poached?
I still say not likely unless UNLV has some magical year and finishes like 10-2 maybe 9-3.
I think he'd still have to back it up with another winning season.
Although, his ability as a recruiter might make an AD take a shot.
But.
In the event he did, I don't think UNLV would necessarily have to look too long or very far for his replacement.
DC Keith Heyward might be an option...The defense has been as good as we've seen since the Robinson days and it's the first year in his system. The most impressive thing to me is how well the defense has played in the 2nd half of games thus far.
Obviously you want an AD to conduct a search for the best candidates. But he might actually already be here...
I think Arroyo’s swag/youth might make an AD take a leap of faith, a year or so ahead of schedule, regardless of results.. Arroyo has the traits you want in a HC, as long as he has the wits & the ability to establish a winning staff..
IMO, he’s a very attractive candidate for a big time job.. I’d give him a shot.. You give him access to P5 money/resources, I think the man does very well..
Don’t want to get too far ahead.. I would love for Arroyo to say he loves the Vegas brand & wants to stay/build this thing up for years to come.. Give the man the keys.. I want it in his hands.. I hope he falls in love with the city/potential, he can create a legacy, especially if/when we get an invite to P5..
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It really may come down to what's going on behind the scenes..
If there is a legit chance UNLV gets invited to a P5 conference maybe he stays.
And I'm not sure just any P5 job would automatically be attractive beyond a potential pay hike.
Obviously we are speculating way too early..
But at least we are talking about a coach potentially getting hired away 5 games into the season vs measuring how hot is his seat.
Ya, speculative to say the least.. Fun to play with & dance around tho.. If Rebs match money with a poacher, why go to a P5, where you have to “actually” win games in magnitude & there is this expectation?
Granted I’m thinking in the future..
If I’m arroyo.. Other than Oregon, why you questioning stuff.. Build this brand man.. With Vegas talent, tons of potential..
Granted I’m thinking in the future..
If I’m arroyo.. Other than Oregon, why you questioning stuff.. Build this brand man.. With Vegas talent, tons of potential..
If ASU job is open and they come knocking, he'd jump on it.
That's a program you could be top 25ish year in and year out.
Flipside, Oregon State..They've had some nice runs in the past, but that's a tough job. Not sure he would jump on something like that.
There are between 10 and 15 P5 football head coach openings each year.
Arguably available for those jobs are all 60 G5 head coaches, all 65 P5 OC's, all 65 P5 DC's, a few failed NFL head coaches along with a few NFL coordinators and finally, a few retired or fired former successful P5 coaches. That's @ 200 coaches.
There are at least 10 G5 coaches that have success over a longer term. There are another 10-15 P5 OC's and DC's in extremely successful programs. Then there have to be at least 10 NFL coaches or fired/retired P5 coaches who would like a P5 job.
From this perspective, I think there are 30-40 coaches who can be viewed as better candidates than Arroyo - even if he goes 10-2 for a single season.
If he goes 9 wins or better for two or three more years then I think he gets to the top 10 or 15 of the list and he'll bolt. But I don't see it now.
The best action for UNLV is to re-negotiate his contract ( if he gets to a bowl) and concentrate on a high buyout. Then, renegotiate every successful year thereafter until he bolts.
That's the facts for a G5 school.
Arguably available for those jobs are all 60 G5 head coaches, all 65 P5 OC's, all 65 P5 DC's, a few failed NFL head coaches along with a few NFL coordinators and finally, a few retired or fired former successful P5 coaches. That's @ 200 coaches.
There are at least 10 G5 coaches that have success over a longer term. There are another 10-15 P5 OC's and DC's in extremely successful programs. Then there have to be at least 10 NFL coaches or fired/retired P5 coaches who would like a P5 job.
From this perspective, I think there are 30-40 coaches who can be viewed as better candidates than Arroyo - even if he goes 10-2 for a single season.
If he goes 9 wins or better for two or three more years then I think he gets to the top 10 or 15 of the list and he'll bolt. But I don't see it now.
The best action for UNLV is to re-negotiate his contract ( if he gets to a bowl) and concentrate on a high buyout. Then, renegotiate every successful year thereafter until he bolts.
That's the facts for a G5 school.
Bingo.
And if he is poached, that’ll be the first that we can remember .. that moves on to greener pastures. Means he did something right here. And you have to live with it and capitalize on it. If you don’t; that’s on you.
Otz completely fluked and long planned it into a better job at ISU, he had shit success here similar to the mope before him. Lon is the hoops coach that moved on to greener.
What I’m saying is you take it if it happens. If it doesn’t, focus on that buyout (and raise) in case this season isn’t a fluke, and with youngsters at skills positions, my guess is he will have non-doormat success at UNLV.
9-3 could do it especially if they win a bowl game. I have been impressed with the D Heyward looks like he is a future HC but because the cupboard is well stocked for next season maybe we attract a candidate we haven’t been able to in the past?
Possible.
Cupboard not bare.
Showed you can actually recruit and win here.
Facilities are in place.
Winning typically translates to booster support.
9-3 might do it..
I still think this would be considered a stepping stone job (for now). More of an OC/DC type coming in vs an established coach.
100%
I think it takes two 7+ win seasons.
His recruiting chops will be attractive.
One more thing, don't just renegotiate Arroyo, you find money to bump staff pay.
