Our current attendance is most likely a momentary illusion. I think we can do well with attendance until the traitors split away. But after that it will be almost impossible. New Mexico, AF , Wyoming and UTEP will not generate the interest needed to get to 40K. It will be back to the mid 20's ( AT BEST) - if we are winning. There could be a couple of OOC games that could generate attendance, but that will depend on where the P4 conferences go. If they completely split away from the have not's then we'll be truly in trouble.
Our new conference will be somewhat better than Conference USA - but not by much. Conference USA averaged 15,600 attendance last year. For us to get to the low 30's we'd have to double that. I don't see it.
The traitors leaving well and truly screwed us. However much you hate them, it isn't enough.
People cant say everything is going to be fine.
Because in one breathe they say..
'An undefeated Liberty (or any other G5 school outside the MWC) shouldn't get in over a 1 loss UNLV or Boise.
And in the next breath say.
'Odom is going to stay because he knows it's an easy path to playoffs because we'll dominate the new MWC' Sure that part might be true but the MWC is essentially going to slot somewhere between CUSA and the MAC.
UNLV will have to schedule way up OOC to make up the difference of the softer conference schedule. And will likely have to take a lot of those games on the road.
Outside of Reno and Hawaii home games attendance is going to take a pretty big hit.
All that said the PAC isn't exactly sitting pretty right now either. The Gonzaga move may bite them in the ass. Whatever media contract they get will have to be divided by one extra because they gave Gonzaga a full share. If I'm St Mary's I 100% demand the same deal.
The PAC was touting a potential 12-15 million dollar media deal. If they had that locked up then why the new delay? 12 million per is double the money for SDSU/FRESNO/USU/CSU. (I think Boise was getting 7 million before) If that 12 million was a lock you go grab Texas State or NMSU or whoever and call it a day.
The PAC overestimated their 'brand'. Memphis very well may end up joining the PAC but I'm not sure 12 million per school is achievable. And even if it is, does a bump of 3 million a year cover all the rebranding and travel costs that Memphis would accrue? I don't know.
OSU and WSU both are use to operating on media deals North of 20 million dollars. I think they may find life in the G6 a little more difficult than they anticipated.
All of it is a mess.
