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Wyoming vs UNLV spread.

I want to know what the over/under on UNLV points scored is through 3 quarters and getting blown out by Wyoming before he puts Oblad in. I know he won’t put him in before the Cowboys have some 3’rd stringers in cause CTS want to hang onto the excuse that he hasn’t gone against the other team’s starters.
 
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This is honestly the best chance the Rebs have for a win over their next 5.

Stats don't always tell the whole story. But typically are a decent barometer of how a team is performing.

Wyoming's QB is less efficient than Armani.
Their defense is struggling...

And yet they are 3-1. (Damn near 4-0)

9.5 line feels high...

But considering Sanchez' record in these type of games..

Maybe not..
 
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This is honestly the best chance the Rebs have for a win over their next 5.

Stats don't always tell the whole story. But typically are a decent barometer of how a team is performing.

Wyoming's QB is less efficient than Armani.
Their defense is struggling...

And yet they are 3-1. (Damn near 4-0)

9.5 line feels high...

But considering Sanchez' record in these type of games..

Maybe not..
Screw it. I'm not going to try and overanalyze it. Just turn it on, root for the Rebs, hope for a win, expecting a loss. And with a loss the wagons will really start circling.
 
Screw it. I'm not going to try and overanalyze it. Just turn it on, root for the Rebs, hope for a win, expecting a loss. And with a loss the wagons will really start circling.

I actually think the Rebs could win this game...

That said..

If they lose and how they lose might matter going forward.

I don't think the AD will make mid season firing.

But...

If the Rebs are getting blown out in conference games, I see no point in keeping him around if they fall out of bowl contention.

There are way to many teams in the MWC winning games against P5 competition for there to be any excuses anymore. Not in year 5.

And its not just Boise doing it.

Its Wyoming, Hawaii and San Jose State who all suffer from the same crap facilities and budget issues UNLV does...
 
I actually think the Rebs could win this game...

That said..

If they lose and how they lose might matter going forward.

I don't think the AD will make mid season firing.

But...

If the Rebs are getting blown out in conference games, I see no point in keeping him around if they fall out of bowl contention.

There are way to many teams in the MWC winning games against P5 competition for there to be any excuses anymore. Not in year 5.

And its not just Boise doing it.

Its Wyoming, Hawaii and San Jose State who all suffer from the same crap facilities and budget issues UNLV does...
Nah, midseason wont and shouldn't happen. I mean it's just it removes a chunk of any doubt...
 
Nah, midseason wont and shouldn't happen. I mean it's just it removes a chunk of any doubt...

I don't think it would either.

Don't think it should to be quite honest.

But devil's advocate here...

If you were sitting at 1-6 the coach is essentially a lame duck...

Is there any downside to it then?

It would be completely different from the Rice situation where there was still plenty of season left..

I have to think San Jose, Reno, Hawaii and Wyoming all having P5 wins is just more ammunition.

I can't imagine their relationship is improving any.
 
I don't think it would either.

Don't think it should to be quite honest.

But devil's advocate here...

If you were sitting at 1-6 the coach is essentially a lame duck...

Is there any downside to it then?

It would be completely different from the Rice situation where there was still plenty of season left..

I have to think San Jose, Reno, Hawaii and Wyoming all having P5 wins is just more ammunition.

I can't imagine their relationship is improving any.
If it gets to that point, you’ve been around long enough to know what happens. Especially since UNLV has never formed a strong culture. Finger pointing, side choosing, blame game, not caring, just going through the motions and playing out the string. Usually it’s not public, but it can become that if reporters press, sometimes they don’t have to. But you hear the leaks at times like that.

In other words, ugly.
 
If it gets to that point, you’ve been around long enough to know what happens. Especially since UNLV has never formed a strong culture. Finger pointing, side choosing, blame game, not caring, just going through the motions and playing out the string. Usually it’s not public, but it can become that if reporters press, sometimes they don’t have to. But you hear the leaks at times like that.

In other words, ugly.

As negative as I probably come off these days in regards to Sanchez, I am rooting for the guy.

I've wanted every coach since Robinson to be 'the guy'..

I don't want another sub .500 season.

This much losing wears on you.

Last year before the Reno game if you asked me lose to Reno and Sanchez gets replaced or win...

I'll take the win everytime.

What I don't want to see, is if UNLV finishes outside bowl contention, puff pieces defending him, or moving the goal posts 'It was always going to take 5 or 6 years' or 'He deserves one more year to reap the benefits of the facility he helped build'..
 
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As negative as I probably come off these days in regards to Sanchez, I am rooting for the guy.

I've wanted every coach since Robinson to be 'the guy'..

I don't want another sub .500 season.

This much losing wears on you.

Last year before the Reno game if you asked me lose to Reno and Sanchez gets replaced or win...

I'll take the win everytime.

What I don't want to see, is if UNLV finishes outside bowl contention, puff pieces defending him, or moving the goal posts 'It was always going to take 5 or 6 years' or 'He deserves one more year to reap the benefits of the facility he helped build'..
Puff pieces by fan boys? Never happens with UNLV.
 
As negative as I probably come off these days in regards to Sanchez, I am rooting for the guy.

I've wanted every coach since Robinson to be 'the guy'..

I don't want another sub .500 season.

This much losing wears on you.

Last year before the Reno game if you asked me lose to Reno and Sanchez gets replaced or win...

I'll take the win everytime.

What I don't want to see, is if UNLV finishes outside bowl contention, puff pieces defending him, or moving the goal posts 'It was always going to take 5 or 6 years' or 'He deserves one more year to reap the benefits of the facility he helped build'..

I am with you in that I want to see him succeed butthen he frustrates the hell out of me with his refusal to give other QB’s a shot when it is so apparent that Armani is not a QB.

He has to know that the game this weekend represents his future at UNLV. No matter how strongly he believes every game left on the schedule is winnable reality has to start setting in should the game start going south.
 
I am with you in that I want to see him succeed butthen he frustrates the hell out of me with his refusal to give other QB’s a shot when it is so apparent that Armani is not a QB.

He has to know that the game this weekend represents his future at UNLV. No matter how strongly he believes every game left on the schedule is winnable reality has to start setting in should the game start going south.

I hear ya Pete.

We will probably disagree here a bit, but I think he is reluctant to make the switch for a few reasons.

1) There isn't a comfortable spot in the schedule to give a guy like Oblad his first career start.

If it were SJSU at home this week..Maybe you make that move (even with their win over Arkansas).

But on the road at Wyoming? A place the Rebs tend to struggle? Tough call.

Definitely not vs Boise. Arguably the best team in the conference.

Vandy? Maybe. They are hardly world beaters, but still an SEC team on the road.

Fresno? On a Friday night on the road? Tall task.

SDSU. Its at home, but a Rocky Long defense could be a brutal introduction for Oblad.

The next spot might be against CSU. And thats still a road game. And if you're needing to make a QB change there the season is probably over in terms of a bowl. No point in taking a look to the possible future, if you probably aren't going to be there.

2) I agree, I don't think there has been a true QB competition. That said, I don't think Oblad or any of the other QBs have ever really pulled away from or truly challenged Armani enough since Stanton. It makes it an easier call for Sanchez.

Its frustrating. I think there is enough talent on the team to get to six wins. Or at least be in the hunt. But times running out and the schedule doesn't get easier..
 
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Graney, who we are mainly thinking of, will start putting out fluff pieces from “anonymous sources” how UNLV’s administration is split on wanting to keep Sanchez since they see the potential for next year’s team to go to a bowl game (his likely spin, not my thoughts at all).

Of course, his MO is to keep UNLV down and see his beloved STDU propelled to the top of the PAC or Big12 conference.
 
About the spread..

Sharps will probably continue to hammer it if the spread stays under 10 for Wyo. we likely lose by more than 14 but they’ll feel safe under 10.

Wyoming had a number of injuries in the Tulsa game.

Honestly you look at their games and they could easily be 1-3 instead of 3-1.

But to their credit they have won despite their defense not playing particularly well (sort of) and their QB is struggling to complete passes. (Sound familiar)

Their defense has surrendered a lot of yards but have forced some timely turnovers. And they have 18 sacks already on the year (7 in one game) Even if you take out the 7 sack performance they would avg nearly 3 a game which is still solid.

They do defend the run reasonable well but they have played a number of pass happy teams.

Man for man UNLV has as much talent as Wyoming. You could probably argue the Rebs might have the more athletic team overall.

The 9.5/10 line feels inflated. I think we'll see it drop as the game gets closer and the 'smart' money comes in.

There are a lot of things that point to UNLV being competitive in this game if not winning outright...

I'm still not sure when we 'line them up' I can predict a win though...

Right now, I'm leaning Wyo 27 UNLV 24 in a game UNLV controls the yardage totals but finds a way to lose..
 
Graney, who we are mainly thinking of, will start putting out fluff pieces from “anonymous sources” how UNLV’s administration is split on wanting to keep Sanchez since they see the potential for next year’s team to go to a bowl game (his likely spin, not my thoughts at all).

Of course, his MO is to keep UNLV down and see his beloved STDU propelled to the top of the PAC or Big12 conference.

I have no issue with opinion guys being contrarian for clicks. Its their job.

Sometimes there is even some merit to their arguments.

But you can tell when its disingenuous. And any argument defending Sanchez if they fail to reach a bowl this year would be just that..At some point wins need to matter and there needs to be some kind of standard. Even here at UNLV.
 
Graney, who we are mainly thinking of, will start putting out fluff pieces from “anonymous sources” how UNLV’s administration is split on wanting to keep Sanchez since they see the potential for next year’s team to go to a bowl game (his likely spin, not my thoughts at all).

Of course, his MO is to keep UNLV down and see his beloved STDU propelled to the top of the PAC or Big12 conference.
That guy is still writing here?
 
The 9.5/10 line feels inflated. I think we'll see it drop as the game gets closer and the 'smart' money comes in.


Right now, I'm leaning Wyo 27 UNLV 24 in a game UNLV controls the yardage totals but finds a way to lose..[/QUOTE]
 
So why wasn’t the “SMART MONEY” coming in at +7 or is the “SMART MONEY on Wyoming? Inquiring minds want to know.
 
I was outta town when the line came out and was told the line opened at -7 and quickly moved to -10. If that was only at offshore betting sites I stand corrected. But then again the real Smart Money sill look for an edge wherever it can find it, Vegas or elsewhere.
 
I was outta town when the line came out and was told the line opened at -7 and quickly moved to -10. If that was only at offshore betting sites I stand corrected. But then again the real Smart Money sill look for an edge wherever it can find it, Vegas or elsewhere.

Right.

Which my guess is that it gets bet down some...

9.5 - 10 feels high..
 
Wyoming had a number of injuries in the Tulsa game.

Honestly you look at their games and they could easily be 1-3 instead of 3-1.

But to their credit they have won despite their defense not playing particularly well (sort of) and their QB is struggling to complete passes. (Sound familiar)

Their defense has surrendered a lot of yards but have forced some timely turnovers. And they have 18 sacks already on the year (7 in one game) Even if you take out the 7 sack performance they would avg nearly 3 a game which is still solid.

They do defend the run reasonable well but they have played a number of pass happy teams.

Man for man UNLV has as much talent as Wyoming. You could probably argue the Rebs might have the more athletic team overall.

The 9.5/10 line feels inflated. I think we'll see it drop as the game gets closer and the 'smart' money comes in.

There are a lot of things that point to UNLV being competitive in this game if not winning outright...

I'm still not sure when we 'line them up' I can predict a win though...

Right now, I'm leaning Wyo 27 UNLV 24 in a game UNLV controls the yardage totals but finds a way to lose..


They have struggles, and arguably comparable weaknesses/talent/struggles as us.

But they are 3-1, not 1-3.

They can find ways to win, despite their weaknesses, their defense can at least turn the ball over to give them a chance.

Coaching could be a difference?

9.5 can be inflated, but again I wouldn't be surprised if we lose by 2+ TD's. Again on the road with rough travel, and altitude to deal with. At least the weather shouldn't be terrible yet.

But again, Sanchez tends to pull out a surprise win every year. I hope it's not this week. At least it shouldn't be that big of a surprise. I'd like the win without it feeling flukey.
 
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I hear ya Pete.

We will probably disagree here a bit, but I think he is reluctant to make the switch for a few reasons.

1) There isn't a comfortable spot in the schedule to give a guy like Oblad his first career start.

If it were SJSU at home this week..Maybe you make that move (even with their win over Arkansas).

But on the road at Wyoming? A place the Rebs tend to struggle? Tough call.

Definitely not vs Boise. Arguably the best team in the conference.

Vandy? Maybe. They are hardly world beaters, but still an SEC team on the road.

Fresno? On a Friday night on the road? Tall task.

SDSU. Its at home, but a Rocky Long defense could be a brutal introduction for Oblad.

The next spot might be against CSU. And thats still a road game. And if you're needing to make a QB change there the season is probably over in terms of a bowl. No point in taking a look to the possible future, if you probably aren't going to be there.

2) I agree, I don't think there has been a true QB competition. That said, I don't think Oblad or any of the other QBs have ever really pulled away from or truly challenged Armani enough since Stanton. It makes it an easier call for Sanchez.

Its frustrating. I think there is enough talent on the team to get to six wins. Or at least be in the hunt. But times running out and the schedule doesn't get easier..

There is really never a really good spot to start a freshman QB unless you are an Alabama type school vs a low tier directional school but with that said Wyoming is very good against the run and horrible against the pass. This game sets up very well for the emergence of Oblad and if he fails so be it but I do believe he will get a shot in this game although he wont get the start.

There is also the possibility that Gilliam could be back and even though he is a better runner than Oblad I don't think he will be ready yet.

The kicker in this game would be if Oblad lights it up passing and CW runs for 120+ yds because Wyoming has to respect the pass.
 
So was that smart money or fan money that bet the offshore line up to -10 from -7?

Don't know.

Books set line.

There was one initial off shore line at 7. Others opened at around 9.5..

I don't think it was bet up...

Either way UNLV is a 10 point dog to a team they have no business being a 10 point dog if any progress has been made.

We'll know more after this week.

But if they lose that 4 win total is starting to look like it was right.

I think the line is high and money is going to come in late on UNLV.
 
There is really never a really good spot to start a freshman QB unless you are an Alabama type school vs a low tier directional school but with that said Wyoming is very good against the run and horrible against the pass. This game sets up very well for the emergence of Oblad and if he fails so be it but I do believe he will get a shot in this game although he wont get the start.

There is also the possibility that Gilliam could be back and even though he is a better runner than Oblad I don't think he will be ready yet.

The kicker in this game would be if Oblad lights it up passing and CW runs for 120+ yds because Wyoming has to respect the pass.

Why do they have to respect the pass?

He's done nothing outside of a couple throws in garbage time.

He will face 8 man fronts and be forced to prove he can complete passes..Wyoming will bring a ton of pressure (18 sacks in four games). Our O-Line has had protection issues.

Until he does he will see a lot of pressure. Charles Williams will have a difficult time finding running lanes if Oblad is unable to loosen the defense. Things could get even worse...

I never saw anything from Oblad in Spring that said to me results would look much different than what we saw from Gilliam last year..

I hope if he comes in he does light it up.

I could be 100% wrong.

Maybe he could light a spark for the offense.

I'm skeptical though..
 
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Sanchez Era
Top passing yards in season

2015 Blake Decker 1713 yards
2017 Armani Rogers 1471 yards
2018 Max Gilliam 1394 yards
2015 Kurt Palendech 794 yards

Top passing TDs in season
2018 Max Gilliam 14 tds
2015 Blake Decker 12 tds
2018 Armani Rogers 10 tds
2015 Kurt Palendech 9 tds
 
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Holy CRAP

For perspective..

Hering had 2700 yards 63% completion.

I forget TD to INT but something like 18-4?

The low passing yards for Rogers really aren't an issue when you add in his rushing.

The issue is the low completion % and the turnovers.

Kills way to many drives.

Especially on 3rd down where is has been really bad.

3rd and 8 has basically been a death sentence.
 
They have struggles, and arguably comparable weaknesses/talent/struggles as us.

But they are 3-1, not 1-3.

They can find ways to win, despite their weaknesses, their defense can at least turn the ball over to give them a chance.

Coaching could be a difference?

9.5 can be inflated, but again I wouldn't be surprised if we lose by 2+ TD's. Again on the road with rough travel, and altitude to deal with. At least the weather shouldn't be terrible yet.

But again, Sanchez tends to pull out a surprise win every year. I hope it's not this week. At least it shouldn't be that big of a surprise. I'd like the win without it feeling flukey.

He does have that surprise win every year.

He has also suffered at least one surprise loss or loss where the Rebs were expected to be competitive and were blown out.

Its such a tough game to get a read on.

If UNLV won outright I will not be shocked.
If UNLV loses by double digits, I won't be shocked.

I had a good read on the SUU game.
I was way off on the Arkansas State game. I figured UNLV might lose, but never saw that result.
I had a good read on Northwestern. I felt like the Rebs would be competitive for three quarters.

But this game I have no idea. I look at the numbers. It looks like UNLV should be competitive. Wyoming has found ways to win games they really didn't play well in.

Who knows...
 
He does have that surprise win every year.

He has also suffered at least one surprise loss or loss where the Rebs were expected to be competitive and were blown out.

Its such a tough game to get a read on.

If UNLV won outright I will not be shocked.
If UNLV loses by double digits, I won't be shocked.

I had a good read on the SUU game.
I was way off on the Arkansas State game. I figured UNLV might lose, but never saw that result.
I had a good read on Northwestern. I felt like the Rebs would be competitive for three quarters.

But this game I have no idea. I look at the numbers. It looks like UNLV should be competitive. Wyoming has found ways to win games they really didn't play well in.

Who knows...

You did totally nail the Northwestern game. Gotta give you credit for that. As I was following the game, I was thinking GD-it Bull!
 
Holy CRAP

A few reasons why Sanchez might be reluctant to make the switch..

1) If you go to Oblad and he stumbles, then what? Its difficult to go back to Rogers at that point.

2) Sanchez and staff see these guys practice every day. Its possible Oblad hasn't done anything in practice to instill any confidence or unseat Rogers.

3) With Cotton's health issues, the offense was handed over to Justice. I'm sure Justice has added some of his own wrinkles but its largely the same offense. That offense was built around a fair amount of zone read stuff. Of all the QBs on the roster, Oblad is the least capable of that. Now you would not only have a late switch at OC but be forced to change the offense part way into the season.

4) We all saw the Reno game last year. We all hoped that was the version of Armani we would see this year. There isn't a QB on this roster that could replicate that. That version of Rogers gives UNLV the best chance to win. Its not close. Unfortunately we aren't seeing that version of Rogers. And Sanchez has apparently hitched his wagon to Rogers. That said, if I had a six figure job on the line and thought another QB on thd roster gave me a better chance to win, promises be damned I'm starting the guy I think helps save my job.

Whether Oblad would spark the offense or not is debatable. Honestly I don't know.
 
I'll end this debate. UNLV loses 42-28. Armani passes for 138 yds, 1 TD and 2 Int's.
 
I'll end this debate. UNLV loses 42-28. Armani passes for 138 yds, 1 TD and 2 Int's.

Possible....Probable...

Wyoming has a few injuries, and have been bad vs the pass.

If Armani can't get 'right' this game, its probably not going to happen any time soon if at all.

The thing is, Armani doesn't have to throw for a ton of yards for the Rebel offense to put up points and move the ball. He just has to be more efficient. If he's 10-15 for 150 its enough. His ability to run, plus Charles Williams will make up the difference.

That's the catch though. He just hasn't been able to do it on a consistent basis.

I don't think there's any real debate. We all see him struggling. I think the question is, is there actually a better option available.

I don't think any of us really know for sure.
 
I think Wyoming is gonna force him to pass the ball more because their defense is really good at stopping the run.
 
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