UNLV playoff chances & discussion

[LVRebel2000]

So now that UNLV is back on track to play in the MW championship game against Boise, I'm starting to look more into the chances that UNLV has for getting into the College Football Playoff (CFP).

From the CFP website, here are some of the criteria that they give for determining the 12 teams to make it:

Key #1 - the 5 highest ranked (by CFP selection committee) conference champions get an automatic bid. Right now, obviously the Big10, SEC, and ACC have teams ranked in the top 10, so they would be likely to take 3 of the 5 bids. After that, it will be between the MW, Big 12, and American conference to get the other 2 bids.

-Big 12 has 9 teams that are within 1 game of first place. I don't know the criteria on who would have tiebreakers and everything, but the best Big 12 teams by record are ASU, BYU, and Iowa State, with Colorado coming in with 1 more loss overall.

-American conference has two teams tied at 7-0 in conference. Army is 9-1 and was ranked #19 last week prior to losing to Notre Dame, so they should be dropping. Tulane is 9-2 and was ranked #20 in the CFP rankings last week, but didn't play. Ideally, UNLV can jump Tulane, but I don't see it happening just by us beating UNR.

So if UNLV wins out including beating Boise, we would be 11-2 with a marquee win over Boise State.
Army has 2 more games and could end up 11-1, and will play Tulane in the championship game.
Tulane has 1 more game and will end up playing Army in the championship game.

So I think the big question is, would UNLV be ranked higher than either
1. The Big 12 champion, or
2. The American conference champion.

Assuming that any of the 2 loss Big 12 teams end up winning the Big 12 championship, I have a hard time believing that UNLV could end up ranked higher than them, so that leaves us matching up against the American conference champion.

When the new polls come out tomorrow, I'm assuming that UNLV will pass Army in the rankings (mostly due to them having a really weak schedule and getting blown out by Notre Dame), but we'll likely still be ranked lower than Tulane. If Tulane wins this week and beats Army in the championship game, they may be hard for UNLV to jump in the CFP rankings. We might be better off if Army beats Tulane in the championship game, but I'm not sure.

At a glance, Tulane's schedule doesn't look very tough, but for some reason the computers like them. In the ESPN power index, Tulane is #17, while Boise is #27, UNLV is #43 and Army is #54.

 

[LVRebel2000]

Next important thing, assuming UNLV gets in would be the seeding. Per the CFP rules, the four highest ranked conference champions would get a first round bye. It seems very unlikely that UNLV would be able to jump over the American conference and the Big 12 teams, unless this weekend is just a bloodbath of upsets in the Big 12. Would be nice to consider, but I doubt it happens.

 

[dcut03]

I think beating Boise on the road will have us leapfrog Tulane. I mean a side by side comparison should favor UNLV quite a bit.

Wins over other CFP ranked teams seem to be important, at least that is what other prognosticators have said. Our win over Boise would likely hold up in the final rankings, though Tulane would likely have none.

I haven't thought about it, but I can see Both the AAC and MWC get teams out with the B12 on the outside looking in, more chaos would have to happen in the Big 12 for that to happen.

 

[Masked_rebel]

The majority of the analysis is correct.
The one key argument and it will feel a lot like the March Madness arguments will the what is essentially the G5 "at large" bid. Body of work, UNLV would have a much stronger resume with 2 road P4 wins and a loss at home to a top 10 team, and then a road win at a top 10 CFP team.
Tulane does not have that resume. Their best wins would be in title game vs top 25 Army and vs Memphis. Tulane has 2 P4 losses this season vs now unranked Oklahoma and K-State.
Essentially, UNLV has 2 Q2 road wins, a Q1 road win, a Q1 loss, and a Q2 loss. Tulane would have borderline 2 Q2 wins, 2 Q2 losses.. Its not an exact science but thats kind of my logic of thinking looking at resume alone.

 

[LVRebel2000]

I think beating Boise on the road will have us leapfrog Tulane. I mean a side by side comparison should favor UNLV quite a bit.

Wins over other CFP ranked teams seem to be important, at least that is what other prognosticators have said. Our win over Boise would likely hold up in the final rankings, though Tulane would likely have none.

I haven't thought about it, but I can see Both the AAC and MWC get teams out with the B12 on the outside looking in, more chaos would have to happen in the Big 12 for that to happen.

Beating Boise would definitely be a good resume builder, but the question is whether or not it would be enough to leapfrog Tulane. In this scenario, Tulane would also get a win vs a 9-2 Memphis team, followed by a win vs a potentially 11-1 Army team. Those would be 2 pretty solid wins.

I just have a hard time that the committee would allow the MW and AAC get teams in while stiffing the Big 12. In last week's CFP rankings, there were 4 Big 12 teams ranked ahead of UNLV.

#14 BYU - lost to ASU (2nd loss in a row). They play Houston this week
#16 Colorado - lost to Kansas. They play Okla St this week.
#21 ASU - beat BYU. They play @ Arizona this week. big rivalry game, so you never know.
#22 Iowa State - beat Utah. They play Kansas State this week, in what should be a good game.

Kansas State is probably knocking on the door of getting into the top 25 also, so if they were to beat Iowa State this week, they'd likely join the top 25.

 

[LVRebel2000]

Best bet would be for Memphis to knock off Tulane this weekend, and then Tulane beat Army in the finals. That way both Tulane and Army would have an extra loss. Then the Big 12 wouldn't matter too much, at least in terms of getting into the CFP for UNLV. Seeding is a whole other deal

 

[LVRebel2000]

The thing that kind of stinks about this setup is that most likely, the 2nd best team in the country will end up being the #5 seed. Since Ohio State is behind Oregon in the standings, Oregon will get the auto bid, while OSU will drop down to #5, and will play whoever the #12 seed is. That's a pretty tough draw, but wow, that would be cool to play @ OSU stadium.

 

[Masked_rebel]

Beating Boise would definitely be a good resume builder, but the question is whether or not it would be enough to leapfrog Tulane. In this scenario, Tulane would also get a win vs a 9-2 Memphis team, followed by a win vs a potentially 11-1 Army team. Those would be 2 pretty solid wins.

I just have a hard time that the committee would allow the MW and AAC get teams in while stiffing the Big 12. In last week's CFP rankings, there were 4 Big 12 teams ranked ahead of UNLV.

#14 BYU - lost to ASU (2nd loss in a row). They play Houston this week
#16 Colorado - lost to Kansas. They play Okla St this week.
#21 ASU - beat BYU. They play @ Arizona this week. big rivalry game, so you never know.
#22 Iowa State - beat Utah. They play Kansas State this week, in what should be a good game.

Kansas State is probably knocking on the door of getting into the top 25 also, so if they were to beat Iowa State this week, they'd likely join the top 25.

Im confused... The big 12 gets an automatic birth. The G5 get an automatic birth through the highest ranked conference champion. That's the qualifier. Unless the G5 have 2 teams finish in the top 12, there isn't an additional G5 birth available so the position of the Big 12 schools only matter in that if the G5 school is ranked higher than the P4 conference champion, they would get hosting rights (a top 4 seed, not a ranking).

 

[LVRebel2000]

The majority of the analysis is correct.
The one key argument and it will feel a lot like the March Madness arguments will the what is essentially the G5 "at large" bid. Body of work, UNLV would have a much stronger resume with 2 road P4 wins and a loss at home to a top 10 team, and then a road win at a top 10 CFP team.
Tulane does not have that resume. Their best wins would be in title game vs top 25 Army and vs Memphis. Tulane has 2 P4 losses this season vs now unranked Oklahoma and K-State.
Essentially, UNLV has 2 Q2 road wins, a Q1 road win, a Q1 loss, and a Q2 loss. Tulane would have borderline 2 Q2 wins, 2 Q2 losses.. Its not an exact science but thats kind of my logic of thinking looking at resume alone.

From the outside looking in, I agree with you. However, it really depends on how you quantify wins. Yes, UNLV got P4 wins, on the road, but as I said in the OP, it's weird how high the computer models are on Tulane. They'll end up getting 2 chances for resume building wins against Memphis, and again vs. Army.

Plus, Tulane is currently #20 in the CFP rankings, while UNLV is #24. That will change tomorrow for sure, but by how much? ASU will leapfrog Tulane after ASU beat BYU this week. BYU will drop, but how much? Colorado will probably drop below Tulane also, but will UNLV jump them?

 

[LVRebel2000]

Im confused... The big 12 gets an automatic birth. The G5 get an automatic birth through the highest ranked conference champion. That's the qualifier. Unless the G5 have 2 teams finish in the top 12, there isn't an additional G5 birth available so the position of the Big 12 schools only matter in that if the G5 school is ranked higher than the P4 conference champion, they would get hosting rights (a top 4 seed, not a ranking).

No, I don't think the Big 12 gets an auto birth. It's supposed to be the 5 highest ranked conference champions. Historically, the P4 conferences would pretty much be a lock to be the highest ranked teams in this scenario, but due to the Big 12 teams beating each other up this year, it's possible (though unlikely) that they could get shut out of the CFP entirely.

Edit: If Boise wins out, they're likely to not only get the CFP bid, but most likely get the #4 seed and a 1st round bye

 

[Rebel1986]

Im confused... The big 12 gets an automatic birth. The G5 get an automatic birth through the highest ranked conference champion. That's the qualifier. Unless the G5 have 2 teams finish in the top 12, there isn't an additional G5 birth available so the position of the Big 12 schools only matter in that if the G5 school is ranked higher than the P4 conference champion, they would get hosting rights (a top 4 seed, not a ranking).

Big12 doesn't get an automatic birth, neither do any of the other conferences, the top 4 seeds go to the highest rated conference champion, which would put the Big12 behind BSU if they won out. Everyone just expected that the Big12 would have a higher rated team than any of the G5 conferences. It is possible that the AAC could also be in front of the Big12, in which case they wouldn't even be sitting at the playoff table this year.

 

[Masked_rebel]

From the outside looking in, I agree with you. However, it really depends on how you quantify wins. Yes, UNLV got P4 wins, on the road, but as I said in the OP, it's weird how high the computer models are on Tulane. They'll end up getting 2 chances for resume building wins against Memphis, and again vs. Army.

Plus, Tulane is currently #20 in the CFP rankings, while UNLV is #24. That will change tomorrow for sure, but by how much? ASU will leapfrog Tulane after ASU beat BYU this week. BYU will drop, but how much? Colorado will probably drop below Tulane also, but will UNLV jump them?

They're high on Tulane because they haven't lost since September... similar to Boise. Had Boise lost to Oregon in October vs the 2nd week of the season, they wouldnt be in the top 10 right now even at 10-1.
For this point, no I dont expect UNLV to move ahead of Tulane until maybe next week if we make the Conference title game. Mostly because it will be easier for the committee to put UNLV in over them that way. I expect by the time the final CFP rankings come out pre-title games, we will be just behind Tulane, close enough that a top 10 victory moves us up 3 or 4 spots and jumps them.

Big12 doesn't get an automatic birth, neither do any of the other conferences, the top 4 seeds go to the highest rated conference champion, which would put the Big12 behind BSU if they won out. Everyone just expected that the Big12 would have a higher rated team than any of the G5 conferences. It is possible that the AAC could also be in front of the Big12, in which case they wouldn't even be sitting at the playoff table this year.

Technically speaking neither does the ACC, SEC, or Big 10.. but you really think they'd not make sure that the 4 P4 conference champs are ranked above the 2nd highest G55 champion? For arguments sake, lets say that all 4 Big 12 schools lose this weekend and they all have 3 losses. I still cant see a scenario where their conference champion doesn't stay ahead of Tulane or Army even at 10-3.

 

[LVRebel2000]

Just for fun, I went onto the ESPN Allstate playoff predictor. The below scenarios are for each of the teams listed winning out the rest of their games, to see their playoff chances:

UNLV: 57% chance of making CFP if they win out and win MWC game
Army: 75% chance of making CFP if they win out and win AAC game
Tulane: 35% chance of making CFP if they win out and win AAC game
Iowa St: 90% if they win the Big 12 championship game
ASU: 85% if they win the Big 12 championship game
BYU: 85% if they win the Big 12 championship game
Colorado: 59% if they win the Big 12 championship game

 

[dcut03]

They're high on Tulane because they haven't lost since September... similar to Boise. Had Boise lost to Oregon in October vs the 2nd week of the season, they wouldnt be in the top 10 right now even at 10-1.
For this point, no I dont expect UNLV to move ahead of Tulane until maybe next week if we make the Conference title game. Mostly because it will be easier for the committee to put UNLV in over them that way. I expect by the time the final CFP rankings come out pre-title games, we will be just behind Tulane, close enough that a top 10 victory moves us up 3 or 4 spots and jumps them.

Technically speaking neither does the ACC, SEC, or Big 10.. but you really think they'd not make sure that the 4 P4 conference champs are ranked above the 2nd highest G55 champion? For arguments sake, lets say that all 4 Big 12 schools lose this weekend and they all have 3 losses. I still cant see a scenario where their conference champion doesn't stay ahead of Tulane or Army even at 10-3.

The only way is see the B12 being left out, is if everyone loses this week. Then an additional upset on the B12 championship game.

It is probably MORE likely if Boise wins out and stays top 25. Army wins out, including Navy, but Tulane beats them in the AAC championship game. I can see Tulane being ranked ahead of a now unranked B12 team that has a path to the conference championship.

 

[dcut03]

Just for fun, I went onto the ESPN Allstate playoff predictor. The below scenarios are for each of the teams listed winning out the rest of their games, to see their playoff chances:

UNLV: 57% chance of making CFP if they win out and win MWC game
Army: 75% chance of making CFP if they win out and win AAC game
Tulane: 35% chance of making CFP if they win out and win AAC game
Iowa St: 90% if they win the Big 12 championship game
ASU: 85% if they win the Big 12 championship game
BYU: 85% if they win the Big 12 championship game
Colorado: 59% if they win the Big 12 championship game

Lets see how that changes after the CFP rankings tomorrow. I am sure Army's %s changes once we jump them in the CFP rankings.

 

[LVRebel2000]

They're high on Tulane because they haven't lost since September... similar to Boise.

Do the computer models account for win streaks? Or just overall resume? I can see the winning streak affecting individual voters, but the thing that was odd to me was that in the ESPN power index (https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi) , they have Tulane ranked #17, which seems crazy based on the teams that they've played this year.

 

[Masked_rebel]

They account for the rankings... The rankings(human voters) take into account winning streaks. That's also the result a schedule that has been really soft since September, even their tough game vs Navy looks good on paper but Navy had just lost its star QB.

 

[Boston Rebel 2]

I read that if every B12 team wins this week, and they are all heavily favored, then ISU will play ASU in the title game.

 

[reagan21]

This is true. ASU and ISU are "win and in". If ISU or ASU loses and BYU wins, BYU is in. "We" need ASU and ISU to both win.

 

[lvrebalum2012]

I read that if every B12 team wins this week, and they are all heavily favored, then ISU will play ASU in the title game.

And if all 2-loss B12 teams lose, then Baylor plays Texas Tech in the CCG. This would most likely result in the B12 being left out of the CFP completely.

 

[lvrebalum2012]

They account for the rankings... The rankings(human voters) take into account winning streaks. That's also the result a schedule that has been really soft since September, even their tough game vs Navy looks good on paper but Navy had just lost its star QB.

I don't know how ESPN's power ratings are determined, but it shouldn't include any type winning streak weighting. That is where the CFP rankings would come into play (determined by people, not analytics).

For comparison, Kelley Ford rates Tulane at #19, so pretty close to where ESPN shows them.

KFord Ratings

kfordratings.com

 

[LocoRebel]

I think beating Boise on the road will have us leapfrog Tulane. I mean a side by side comparison should favor UNLV quite a bit.

Wins over other CFP ranked teams seem to be important, at least that is what other prognosticators have said. Our win over Boise would likely hold up in the final rankings, though Tulane would likely have none.

I haven't thought about it, but I can see Both the AAC and MWC get teams out with the B12 on the outside looking in, more chaos would have to happen in the Big 12 for that to happen.

Big 12 chaos is my favorite scenario. No way Texas Tech or Baylor would be ahead of Tulane or BSU/UNLV.

 

[Boston Rebel 2]

And if all 2-loss B12 teams lose, then Baylor plays Texas Tech in the CCG. This would most likely result in the B12 being left out of the CFP completely.

This not only would be shocking and a best case scenario for us to get in it also would likely hasten our invite into the conference.

 

[1Tripoda]

Beat Reno then beat the craps out off Boise. That is UNLV ticket.

 

[LVRebel2000]

Beat Reno then beat the craps out off Boise. That is UNLV ticket.

If we were to stomp Boise, I'd think that would give us a big jump in the rankings....but that seems unlikely

 

[1Tripoda]

If we were to stomp Boise, I'd think that would give us a big jump in the rankings....but that seems unlikely

That is all we can control.
Also, it is not a given that Boise will beat Oregon State. The Beavers think they are badass after they beat the tails out off the Cougars poons.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

How crazy is it we actually have this thread.

Usually we're arguing about should a coach be fired and who the replacement should be.

 

[unlove]

That Syracuse game could really come back to haunt us… along with the behind the line tackle on 4th down and Woodard’s dropped Int a few plays later.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

That Syracuse game could really come back to haunt us… along with the behind the line tackle on 4th down and Woodard’s dropped Int a few plays later.

It could. Tulane and UNLV are really going to be a coin flip for the committee. I think the Rebs resume is better but who knows. Feels like a win over a potentially #10 ranked Boise State (maybe higher depending on results) will Trump Tulane beating Memphis and Army.

UNLV needs to root for everybody they've played this year to win this final weekend.

We absolutely need Boise State to beat Oregon State so that title game carries as much weight as possible.

KU beating Baylor and finishing 6-6 (and crazy as it sounds possibly ranked) would be huge. USU beating CSU would help resume.

 

[RebelinWA]

It could. Tulane and UNLV are really going to be a coin flip for the committee. I think the Rebs resume is better but who knows. Feels like a win over a potentially #10 ranked Boise State (maybe higher depending on results) will Trump Tulane beating Memphis and Army.

UNLV needs to root for everybody they've played this year to win this final weekend.

We absolutely need Boise State to beat Oregon State so that title game carries as much weight as possible.

KU beating Baylor and finishing 6-6 (and crazy as it sounds possibly ranked) would be huge. USU beating CSU would help resume.

To add to this, we need the people that are close to us, but above us in rank to lose. Not all of them, but one or two of them. I want us to be as high up on the charts as possible.

Its definitely a long shot. I don’t want to look too far ahead. We have to crush reno first, and I am absolutely not in the camp that a win against reno is a given. BUT if we can pull this off and make it to the CFP, it is our duty as fans to be absolutely insufferable to SDSU and Boise fans.

 

[Boston Rebel 2]

It could. Tulane and UNLV are really going to be a coin flip for the committee. I think the Rebs resume is better but who knows. Feels like a win over a potentially #10 ranked Boise State (maybe higher depending on results) will Trump Tulane beating Memphis and Army.

UNLV needs to root for everybody they've played this year to win this final weekend.

We absolutely need Boise State to beat Oregon State so that title game carries as much weight as possible.

KU beating Baylor and finishing 6-6 (and crazy as it sounds possibly ranked) would be huge. USU beating CSU would help resume.

I don’t even see how they are in the conversation with us our two best wins are better than any win on their schedule and if we beat Boise we would have 3 wins that beats anything they have. And our two losses are better than their two losses. All they have is SOS 64 vs 71 which would change vs Boise.

 

[lvrebalum2012]

That Syracuse game could really come back to haunt us… along with the behind the line tackle on 4th down and Woodard’s dropped Int a few plays later.

Eh, you could say that. Hajj’s throw before the half vs Boise also could have been the reason.

On the other side, what about the multiple breaks we got on that last drive vs KU? Any one of those could gone the other way and that could have been a loss.

Point is there is no reason to look back on what could have been. Right now, we MUST beat Reno. Then go to war against Boise and hopefully come back with a MWC crown. After that, the chips will fall where they may.

 

[Pistol Pete 1]

How crazy is it we actually have this thread.

Usually we're arguing about should a coach be fired and who the replacement should be.

William Hill is now offering me a Cash Out on my 40/1 future bet on UNLV to make the playoffs. Not big enough but offering a 5/1 return on original bet.

 

[LVRebel2000]

It could. Tulane and UNLV are really going to be a coin flip for the committee. I think the Rebs resume is better but who knows. Feels like a win over a potentially #10 ranked Boise State (maybe higher depending on results) will Trump Tulane beating Memphis and Army.

UNLV needs to root for everybody they've played this year to win this final weekend.

We absolutely need Boise State to beat Oregon State so that title game carries as much weight as possible.

KU beating Baylor and finishing 6-6 (and crazy as it sounds possibly ranked) would be huge. USU beating CSU would help resume.

Yes to all of this. Ideally Memphis can knock off Tulane today. However, I believe Tulane and Army are likely to play in the conference championship game, so once Tulane loses to Memphis, then I want Tulane to beat Army in the conference championship game.

 

[LVRebel2000]

To add to this, we need the people that are close to us, but above us in rank to lose. Not all of them, but one or two of them. I want us to be as high up on the charts as possible.

Its definitely a long shot. I don’t want to look too far ahead. We have to crush reno first, and I am absolutely not in the camp that a win against reno is a given. BUT if we can pull this off and make it to the CFP, it is our duty as fans to be absolutely insufferable to SDSU and Boise fans.

Rivalry games are never a guarantee. It's like Reno's bowl game (since they aren't close to sniffing one), so they'll give it their all to try to ruin our season.

 

[reagan21]

Yes to all of this. Ideally Memphis can knock off Tulane today.

Thursday

 

[Rebel1986]

Thursday

Not much interest in the game considering you can easily get tickets for $3-5 on ticket sites.

 

[Rebel_Luv]

William Hill is now offering me a Cash Out on my 40/1 future bet on UNLV to make the playoffs. Not big enough but offering a 5/1 return on original bet.

is that really a thing???? I have the app. I just won 3500$ on a 7 teamer. alot of luck ,but the last game was Monday night . I dont know where i could of gotten the buyout. I put up 1300 to hedge it incase i lost. Luckly i bought 1.5 points and tied it on the hedge. Got the 3500 plus the 1300 i invested so NET 3500$ . I might have cashed out before the Sunday night game. I dont bet that much. Maybe 100-250 a month MAX!! That is just during UNLV- NFL season.

 

[bcvegaspt2]

is that really a thing???? I have the app. I just won 3500$ on a 7 teamer. alot of luck ,but the last game was Monday night . I dont know where i could have gotten the buyout. I put up 1300 to hedge it incase i lost. Luckly i bought 1.5 points and tied it on the hedge. Got the 3500 plus the 1300 i invested so NET 3500$ . I might have cashed out before the Sunday night game. I dont bet that much. Maybe 100-250 a month MAX!! That is just during UNLV- NFL season.

Congrats on the big win!

When you’re looking at your bets, the app either will or won’t offer a cash out. I’ve had it happen yes and no.

 

[Pistol Pete 1]

Yeah it’s really a thing. Just open the app and click on bets. It’s not always available but I like to use it when I have a lead but have a bad feeling about how things are going.