This post is a "What If" and those of you who don't like to play in that arena should just stop here. But it goes to show how what seems like a small pre-season decision can make a huge difference down the stretch.
Currently, we are 304th ( NCAA Stats) in rebound margin. We get three rebounds less per game than our opponents. If we were rebounding at @ 80th in rebound margin we would get a +2 margin. The difference is 5 additional possessions a game. According to KenPom we score @ 1.01 points per possession adjusted for the strength of the opponent. This equals 5 additional points per game.
Looking at our losses, 5 additional points would give us six close wins versus six close losses. ( Yes, I understand that many things could have come into play to keep a close loss a close loss but I refer you to the first sentence of the post before you start whining).
With the additional wins we would be 11-5 in the conference and 23 - 5 overall. We would be in 4th place ( 1 game behind Boise and Reno who would be tied for second) and still in a statistical hunt for first place in the Conference. There would be threads about how high we should be seeded in the NCAA's. Many on the board would be clamoring for a fast extension of KK's contract.
So, what was the small pre-season decision that made this difference? The decision that Iwuakor was a great overall athlete and he would improve and that Muoka was a really good rim protector and that fit into the overall strategy of "defense is good enough". The decision NOT to recruit over them was a huge error that ended up costing the program big.
A good rebounder ( 8-10 a game - Udeze getting 9.3 per game.) who only needed to score the occasional put-back could have made this one of the best seasons in years (And before you say Cottrell, look at his previous rebounding stats)
Currently, we are 304th ( NCAA Stats) in rebound margin. We get three rebounds less per game than our opponents. If we were rebounding at @ 80th in rebound margin we would get a +2 margin. The difference is 5 additional possessions a game. According to KenPom we score @ 1.01 points per possession adjusted for the strength of the opponent. This equals 5 additional points per game.
Looking at our losses, 5 additional points would give us six close wins versus six close losses. ( Yes, I understand that many things could have come into play to keep a close loss a close loss but I refer you to the first sentence of the post before you start whining).
With the additional wins we would be 11-5 in the conference and 23 - 5 overall. We would be in 4th place ( 1 game behind Boise and Reno who would be tied for second) and still in a statistical hunt for first place in the Conference. There would be threads about how high we should be seeded in the NCAA's. Many on the board would be clamoring for a fast extension of KK's contract.
So, what was the small pre-season decision that made this difference? The decision that Iwuakor was a great overall athlete and he would improve and that Muoka was a really good rim protector and that fit into the overall strategy of "defense is good enough". The decision NOT to recruit over them was a huge error that ended up costing the program big.
A good rebounder ( 8-10 a game - Udeze getting 9.3 per game.) who only needed to score the occasional put-back could have made this one of the best seasons in years (And before you say Cottrell, look at his previous rebounding stats)
