Not to early to play out probabilities.
Fresno, Wyoming, USU, NM, SDSU and UNLV are fighting for the 3 - 5 spots in the conference. The difficulty of the remaining schedule will make a huge difference. We have the most difficult path. Losing those three home games put us in a huge bind.
Using the ESPN game predictor the total number of wins for each team will be: ( Take that for what it's worth but it's the easiest and most accessible game predictor to use )
Fresno - 12 wins - third place
NM - 11 wins - fourth place
Wyoming, USU, and SDSU - 10 wins - tied for 5th , 6th and 7th place.
UNLV - 9 wins - 8th place.
I think we are playing better than the ESPN game predictor implies. They look at the entire year and I think the team is much better now than at the beginning of conference. Additional, we're healthy. We'll most likely need four wins out of the next six to get 5th.
Assuming we beat AF and lose to SDSU at their place - Fresno, NM and USU become the important games. We'll need two of those three to get 5th. If we can beat Reno it will be a bonus and take off some pressure. But - we can lose to both Reno and the Aztecs and get 5th.
The final game at USU could be a play-in game of sorts with the winner getting 5th place.
What do you all think? If we get in as 5th, I like our chances to win the Tournament.
Fresno, Wyoming, USU, NM, SDSU and UNLV are fighting for the 3 - 5 spots in the conference. The difficulty of the remaining schedule will make a huge difference. We have the most difficult path. Losing those three home games put us in a huge bind.
Using the ESPN game predictor the total number of wins for each team will be: ( Take that for what it's worth but it's the easiest and most accessible game predictor to use )
Fresno - 12 wins - third place
NM - 11 wins - fourth place
Wyoming, USU, and SDSU - 10 wins - tied for 5th , 6th and 7th place.
UNLV - 9 wins - 8th place.
I think we are playing better than the ESPN game predictor implies. They look at the entire year and I think the team is much better now than at the beginning of conference. Additional, we're healthy. We'll most likely need four wins out of the next six to get 5th.
Assuming we beat AF and lose to SDSU at their place - Fresno, NM and USU become the important games. We'll need two of those three to get 5th. If we can beat Reno it will be a bonus and take off some pressure. But - we can lose to both Reno and the Aztecs and get 5th.
The final game at USU could be a play-in game of sorts with the winner getting 5th place.
What do you all think? If we get in as 5th, I like our chances to win the Tournament.
