I know that for many, this season is a lost cause and there is no point watching, analyzing, or discussing what actually happens on the court. Well, in case you're still into that kind of thing, check this out.
Following the SDSU game, I started a thread talking about how bad we were/are late in the shot clock. In the SDSU game when the shot clock got under 7 seconds, we had 14 possessions, scored only 4 points and had 6 turnovers. SDSU had 11 possessions with 20 points and only 2 turnovers.
Another disturbing trend is that we seem to be terrible in crunch time. Now, one can easily look at final scores and look at our record in games decided by X amount of points. But that's not really what I'm getting at. For example, we only beat Indiana by 3, but I don't feel like that game was truly one where we had to deal with the pressure of "crunch time" down the stretch. I wouldn't call that a "coin flip" game, despite the fact that it ended as a one-possession game.
I'm talking more about games that are close as we come down the home stretch. With 5 minutes to play, where the outcome still hangs in the balance, can we perform under pressure? So I went back and looked at the play-by-play recap of each game to find those games where we were leading/trailing by 5 or less points at the 5 minute mark. When the teams are separated by 2 possessions or less with 5 minutes to go, the outcome is very much in jeopardy and we see who can finish it out. Here's what I found:
(First number is UNLV's position @ 5:00 mark; last number is margin of W/L)
vs. Cal Poly +3 W +2
UCLA +1 L -2
@ WichSt -3 L -6
vs. ASU -4 L -10
vs. FSU -3 L -3
@ WYO -1 L -2
@ UNR +1 L -2
vs. BSU +3 W +10
@ UNM +1 L -4
@ FSU -5 L -7
vs. SJSU +1 W +3
@ CSU +7 L -1***
@ AFA -2 L -5***
Record in these "crunch time" games: 3-10. When leading at 5:00: 3-4. When trailing at 5:00: 0-6.
The two games with *** don't strictly fit my "within 5 at 5:00" criteria, but I certainly think they fit the spirit of "crunch time". At CSU, we were up by 7 at 5:00, then proceeded to blow it. Last night at AFA, we were down 9 at 5:00 but cut it to 5 with 4:00, and were down 2 with 3:00 to go.
Whether it's late in the shot clock or late in the game, this team comes up short time after time.
Let's talk about our 5:00 stat as the inverse of SDSU's 5:00 stat. When SDSU is up w/ 5:00 remaining, they always win. When the Rebels trail with 5:00 remaining, we always lose. In addition to the 0-6 streak above, you have to include the not-so-close losses to SDSU, Arizona. That brings us to 0-8 when we trail with 5:00 to play this season.
Went back to last year.it extended our streak by 2 games. (SDSU tourney and @USU). So we are now 0-10 in the last 10 games where we are trailing with 5:00 to go. Our last win was 1/27/15 at Reno. We were down 1 with 5:00 to play and came back to win that game.
To cap it off: going back through conference season last year, our record in "within 5 at 5:00" games is 5-21.
5 wins. 21 losses. Ouch.
I guess this provides the stats for why we all get that sinking feeling when games are close down the stretch....
Following the SDSU game, I started a thread talking about how bad we were/are late in the shot clock. In the SDSU game when the shot clock got under 7 seconds, we had 14 possessions, scored only 4 points and had 6 turnovers. SDSU had 11 possessions with 20 points and only 2 turnovers.
Another disturbing trend is that we seem to be terrible in crunch time. Now, one can easily look at final scores and look at our record in games decided by X amount of points. But that's not really what I'm getting at. For example, we only beat Indiana by 3, but I don't feel like that game was truly one where we had to deal with the pressure of "crunch time" down the stretch. I wouldn't call that a "coin flip" game, despite the fact that it ended as a one-possession game.
I'm talking more about games that are close as we come down the home stretch. With 5 minutes to play, where the outcome still hangs in the balance, can we perform under pressure? So I went back and looked at the play-by-play recap of each game to find those games where we were leading/trailing by 5 or less points at the 5 minute mark. When the teams are separated by 2 possessions or less with 5 minutes to go, the outcome is very much in jeopardy and we see who can finish it out. Here's what I found:
(First number is UNLV's position @ 5:00 mark; last number is margin of W/L)
vs. Cal Poly +3 W +2
UCLA +1 L -2
@ WichSt -3 L -6
vs. ASU -4 L -10
vs. FSU -3 L -3
@ WYO -1 L -2
@ UNR +1 L -2
vs. BSU +3 W +10
@ UNM +1 L -4
@ FSU -5 L -7
vs. SJSU +1 W +3
@ CSU +7 L -1***
@ AFA -2 L -5***
Record in these "crunch time" games: 3-10. When leading at 5:00: 3-4. When trailing at 5:00: 0-6.
The two games with *** don't strictly fit my "within 5 at 5:00" criteria, but I certainly think they fit the spirit of "crunch time". At CSU, we were up by 7 at 5:00, then proceeded to blow it. Last night at AFA, we were down 9 at 5:00 but cut it to 5 with 4:00, and were down 2 with 3:00 to go.
Whether it's late in the shot clock or late in the game, this team comes up short time after time.
Let's talk about our 5:00 stat as the inverse of SDSU's 5:00 stat. When SDSU is up w/ 5:00 remaining, they always win. When the Rebels trail with 5:00 remaining, we always lose. In addition to the 0-6 streak above, you have to include the not-so-close losses to SDSU, Arizona. That brings us to 0-8 when we trail with 5:00 to play this season.
Went back to last year.it extended our streak by 2 games. (SDSU tourney and @USU). So we are now 0-10 in the last 10 games where we are trailing with 5:00 to go. Our last win was 1/27/15 at Reno. We were down 1 with 5:00 to play and came back to win that game.
To cap it off: going back through conference season last year, our record in "within 5 at 5:00" games is 5-21.
5 wins. 21 losses. Ouch.
I guess this provides the stats for why we all get that sinking feeling when games are close down the stretch....
