OK I feel I "little better" if this is true.

[dcut03]

I typically don't beleive Arrigo, but the details are so specific I am inclined to believe him. This also makes a little more sense.
We basically shut the door on the PAC forever, but leave it open for the Big 12. Still very risky, but we have to take advantage of the next 2 seasons ( including this one) to really have a shot. After that, it gets much, much more difficult.

 

[unlvrunninrebels]

Straight from UNLV ….


(MOU) signed by President Whitfield, the Mountain West will pay an estimated lump sum of $10-to-14 million to UNLV in 2025, and also pay UNLV approximately $1.5-to-1.8 million annually over a six-year period beginning in July 2026. The new payments are on top of the current revenue streams from existing contracts and media assets. The current media deal expires in June 2026 and negotiations for a new media deal will begin in the near future. The university will also have the flexibility to explore future membership in an autonomous “Power Four” conference without penalty should the opportunity become available.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

I typically don't beleive Arrigo, but the details are so specific I am inclined to believe him. This also makes a little more sense.
We basically shut the door on the PAC forever, but leave it open for the Big 12. Still very risky, but we have to take advantage of the next 2 seasons ( including this one) to really have a shot. After that, it gets much, much more difficult.

View embedded media

What if...(Hope springs eternal thinking here)

But what if...

UNLV goes to Gloria..

You pay us X amount we stay buying time for you to rebuild the conference.

We are currently in talks with the BIG12 and intend to leave in 20XX.

No exit fees. No grant of rights stuff. Free and clear.

The other less sunshine and roses scenario is UNLV added the P4 verbiage to keep the dogs at bay in terms of negative fan and booster reaction. 'Just say P4 these fools will buy it.

 

[dcut03]

What if...(Hope springs eternal thinking here)

But what if...

UNLV goes to Gloria..

You pay us X amount we stay buying time for you to rebuild the conference.

We are currently in talks with the BIG12 and intend to leave in 20XX.

No exit fees. No grant of rights stuff. Free and clear.

The other less sunshine and roses scenario is UNLV added the P4 verbiage to keep the dogs at bay in terms of negative fan and booster reaction. 'Just say P4 these fools will buy it.

Honestly that is my hope of what exactly is happening.

That they are talking to the Big 12. They say, "we like what you are doing" keep it up and we may reach an agreement in the future.

It also explains why we aren't going to the PAC, which will obviously be a better conference than the leftover MW with significantly more annual revenue. If a true, legit shot to join the Big 12 is possible.

Still a long shot, and we still might have to bust the playoff this year or get damn close. And maybe follow that up with another very good year next year.

All while improving TV numbers and attendance.

But all of this drama this week will at least get people tuning in to see us. And if we keep winning, climb the rankings, then I think both ratings and attendance will improve (ratings more than attendance, but for media deals, at least that matter more). This drama is giving us some national intrigue. Hopefully we can capitalize

 

[Masked_rebel]

And we get enough money to keep Odom from basically anything but ridiculous SEC money...

 

[Gator 82]

I won’t feel beater until we curb stomp Fresno, Oregon St., Boise, Utah St. and SDSU. If they get the chance to run up the score on any one of the 5, then do it.

 

[rebeltob]

This is working out even better than I expected. Glad y’all are starting to see the light.

 

[Masked_rebel]

You gonna do a "takes" thread on realignment because there's been some doozies on here since Monday...

 

[dcut03]

This is working out even better than I expected. Glad y’all are starting to see the light.

To be fair, learning that Gloria and the MW would give any sort of free pass for us to go to the Big 12 is pretty unexpected.
I think most assumed we were locked into the MW for years, stuck with likely even more egregious exit fees the next contract cycle. Taking a temporary payday over more annual revenue and a better conference. Because all of that is still true. And if the Big 12 doesn't come calling, which is unfortunately still the more likely scenario, we still made the wrong choice.
But if they DO come calling, then we are in business.

 

[CEERebel]

I honestly don’t think there was much of a choice. If those cheapskates were only willing to give the AAC schools 2.5 million towards their exit fees, what do you think they were offering us? It wouldn’t surprise me if they weren’t offering a full market share of an unknown contract. The more that comes out, I find it more likely that UNLV was using the prospect of moving as leverage with the MW and joining the PAC was never a serious option. Those clowns absolutely screwed themselves by pinching pennies in an effort to create a power conference.

 

[Rosegreen1]

They weren’t offering us anything, not a dime. They don’t have much money which explains some of the odd moves like lowballing Memphis and telling USU to pay their own way and then finally suing the MWC to delay payments on the penalty.

Not a good sign for an upstart conference. I’m real surprised the PAC bungled things so badly and I think this points to the mismanagement of their finances, the PAC 1.0 settlement money was probably used to fund their own departments to keep running like they were a P5 program. I haven’t seen either pac2 school announce any budget cuts and trimmed things down to be in the best possible position. Blew all their money on 4 MWC schools and now lawyers.

The MWC defectors are going to take a big hit over the next couple years prior to the move. The stories of the PAC getting 10-15 million were probably paid stories by the PAC to generate interest.

 

[reagan21]

I think we should go into Gloria’s office next week and say we had verbally accepted $35M from one of her assistants last week.

 

[oneepstein]

Is there something in the works with the Big 12? I doubt it but, hey a guy can dream right? Having the option without penalty is pretty huge though.

After calming down and thinking about it for a minute though…

Jumping to the PAC was likely going to cost at least $18 million. Maybe it was just the $18 mil or maybe there was some other bs shannanigans the PAC and the rest of those traitorous CU**S were trying to pull like reduced revenue share or whatever.

Regardless, UNLV saves the $18 mil and picks up an additional $20 million or more to stay in a conference, that isn’t as good to be sure (maybe by a decent amount), but in all reality isn’t as far behind as people may think.

The PAC is still a G5 and in any given season, depending on who the national Cinderella turns out to be, could easily end up as a footnote during any given season.

Once a few of them sh*t the bed in the non-con and it drags their SOS into the tank it won’t matter what the rest do.

And UNLV just made $35-40 million to be in essentially the same boat.

 

[dcut03]

Is there something in the works with the Big 12? I doubt it but, hey a guy can dream right? Having the option without penalty is pretty huge though.

After calming down and thinking about it for a minute though…

Jumping to the PAC was likely going to cost at least $18 million. Maybe it was just the $18 mil or maybe there was some other bs shannanigans the PAC and the rest of those traitorous CU**S were trying to pull like reduced revenue share or whatever.

Regardless, UNLV saves the $18 mil and picks up an additional $20 million or more to stay in a conference, that isn’t as good to be sure (maybe by a decent amount), but in all reality isn’t as far behind as people may think.

The PAC is still a G5 and in any given season, depending on who the national Cinderella turns out to be, could easily end up as a footnote during any given season.

Once a few of them sh*t the bed in the non-con and it drags their SOS into the tank it won’t matter what the rest do.

And UNLV just made $35-40 million to be in essentially the same boat.

It isn't the same boat though.
UNLV would have been thr PACs 7th best market. It is the MW's top market.
The annual revenue isn't going to be that close. It can't be,
They also a good chunk of of better basketball schools.
Oh yeah SDSU, BSU, and Frenso have been the best football schools too in the past decade.
The factor that no one talks about is UNLV in the PAC really helps the PAC profile. The PAC becomes pretty legit at that point. They are really struggling without us, but they will be OK.

And it was never going to cost UNLV 18 million.

But.

Going to the PAC is more or less committing to G5 for an extended period of time with a much lower ceiling financially and athletically. It is trading extra cash now for being truly upgraded in the future.

These next 2 seasons are huge. Because after that it is going to be much harder to make a splash. No one moves from a lower G5 to a P4. No one.

Depending on who the MW can land, then maybe it won't be a lower G5, but is sure as sh!t is now.

 

[Couev]

UNLV would have been thr PACs 7th best

I'm not sure where you're getting that data but you might want to check your figures.

Vegas is the #40 market

Fresno-Visalia is #52

Spokane (Pullman) is #64

Boise is #97

Eugene (Corvallis) is #119 and I'll let you guess who the eyes in the Eugene are watching.

 

[Meister_Rebel]

It isn't the same boat though.
UNLV would have been thr PACs 7th best market. It is the MW's top market.
The annual revenue isn't going to be that close. It can't be,
They also a good chunk of of better basketball schools.
Oh yeah SDSU, BSU, and Frenso have been the best football schools too in the past decade.
The factor that no one talks about is UNLV in the PAC really helps the PAC profile. The PAC becomes pretty legit at that point. They are really struggling without us, but they will be OK.

And it was never going to cost UNLV 18 million.

But.

Going to the PAC is more or less committing to G5 for an extended period of time with a much lower ceiling financially and athletically. It is trading extra cash now for being truly upgraded in the future.

These next 2 seasons are huge. Because after that it is going to be much harder to make a splash. No one moves from a lower G5 to a P4. No one.

Depending on who the MW can land, then maybe it won't be a lower G5, but is sure as sh!t is now.

We will find out soon enough how good or bad our decision was to stay. Let's see which Sun Belt or CUSA teams start turning the MW down. Unless Gloria has a lot more cash on hand to lure someone like Texas State to cover all teams travel costs we are going to look pretty damn silly.

 

[dcut03]

I'm not sure where you're getting that data but you might want to check your figures.

Vegas is the #40 market

Fresno-Visalia is #52

Spokane (Pullman) is #64

Boise is #97

Eugene (Corvallis) is #119 and I'll let you guess who the eyes in the Eugene are watching.

We aren't talking media market necessarily, we are talking SCHOOLS.

The idea that we have to get into X market does not apply anymore. The regional channels for college sport have all but died off. Really all conferences are already in every market.

The city you are in matters, it increases potential. But what really matters is how much the SCHOOL draws eyeballs for college athletics.

Oregon state and WAZZU averaged over 2.2 million views for football game last season. averaged. We were doing backflips for the maybe 1.5 million on Friday night on ESPN against Kansas.

That is why OSU and WAZZU at least historically is worth more for media that every current MW easily.

I will say this, for THIS SEASON, there is a very good chance that UNLV becomes the #1 market in the league. All of our coverage, being a playoff contender, all the drama we will likely easily rise up to the best G5 school. Gotta keep winning though. However, historically we have not been. We are probably 5th.

San Jose is probably the best media market by far. But they are near the bottom in the league in attendance, despite actually being good.

It was reported several times that the first 4 were picked based of media data. Strictly business to raise the media deal and that alone.

 

[saulpaul21]

We aren't talking media market necessarily, we are talking SCHOOLS.

The idea that we have to get into X market does not apply anymore. The regional channels for college sport have all but died off. Really all conferences are already in every market.

The city you are in matters, it increases potential. But what really matters is how much the SCHOOL draws eyeballs for college athletics.

Oregon state and WAZZU averaged over 2.2 million views for football game last season. averaged. We were doing backflips for the maybe 1.5 million on Friday night on ESPN against Kansas.

That is why OSU and WAZZU at least historically is worth more for media that every current MW easily.

I will say this, for THIS SEASON, there is a very good chance that UNLV becomes the #1 market in the league. All of our coverage, being a playoff contender, all the drama we will likely easily rise up to the best G5 school. Gotta keep winning though. However, historically we have not been. We are probably 5th.

San Jose is probably the best media market by far. But they are near the bottom in the league in attendance, despite actually being good.

It was reported several times that the first 4 were picked based of media data. Strictly business to raise the media deal and that alone.

You do realize O state and Wsu tv numbers are inflated by playing teams from major markets such as LA, sf, Seattle, Phoenix, and Salt Lake city? We will see the numbers as they play smaller markets.

 

[Poster17]

Oregon state and WAZZU averaged over 2.2 million views for football game last season. averaged. We were doing backflips for the maybe 1.5 million on Friday night on ESPN against Kansas.

That is why OSU and WAZZU at least historically is worth more for media that every current MW easily.

Yeah you are going to average that when you play SC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, and the rest of the true PAC12. You don't get those numbers playing in the PAC STATE conference.

 

[dcut03]

You do realize O state and Wsu tv numbers are inflated by playing teams from major markets such as LA, sf, Seattle, Phoenix, and Salt Lake city? We will see the numbers as they play smaller markets.

That is why I said historically.

Apparently the CW loves their agreement with them so far. I would be surprised that they don't become one of the partners with the new PAC when they settle in. So they are having good returns so far.

But we look at Pullman and Corvalis and scoff. I look at actual viewership and scoff.

Do we scoff at Iowa City, and College Station? Lincoln? No. And I am not saying that OSU or WAZZU are anywhere near that.

But that also does not mean they are worth 3 mil a season per team eithrer.

 

[Couev]

We aren't talking media market necessarily, we are talking SCHOOLS.

The idea that we have to get into X market does not apply anymore. The regional channels for college sport have all but died off. Really all conferences are already in every market.

So you're not talking market, more footprint and penetration. There's some venn overlap but they're not the same thing--I know it's been a few decades since I took a media related course, but my umbrage stems from you using the wrong term. I think i disagree that we have the 7th of 8 footprints this season, but we're definitely in the bottom half.

It was reported several times that the first 4 were picked based of media data. Strictly business to raise the media deal and that alone.

Fresno State has multiple games with under 100k views (buoyed by the game @ Michigan) (For the rest of the schedule both Wyoming and New Mexico have out-rated them. Boise, apart from the Oregon game has been well behind us on their games this year. Utah State has multiple games below 100k views. Colorado State had a @ Texas and @ Colorado this year so their numbers look really good on average even when you got well below 100k views for their other 2 games. Oregon State and Wazzu are clearly better than us, but have already played the Apple Cup and the Civil War this season. When they hit MWC plays I'll be you 100 dollars that they don't even average 1.0 million views per game this year, much less the 2 million plus they managed last year.

 

[oneepstein]

It isn't the same boat though.
UNLV would have been thr PACs 7th best market. It is the MW's top market.
The annual revenue isn't going to be that close. It can't be,
They also a good chunk of of better basketball schools.
Oh yeah SDSU, BSU, and Frenso have been the best football schools too in the past decade.
The factor that no one talks about is UNLV in the PAC really helps the PAC profile. The PAC becomes pretty legit at that point. They are really struggling without us, but they will be OK.

And it was never going to cost UNLV 18 million.

But.

Going to the PAC is more or less committing to G5 for an extended period of time with a much lower ceiling financially and athletically. It is trading extra cash now for being truly upgraded in the future.

These next 2 seasons are huge. Because after that it is going to be much harder to make a splash. No one moves from a lower G5 to a P4. No one.

Depending on who the MW can land, then maybe it won't be a lower G5, but is sure as sh!t is now.

Agree on some… disagree on some… and you have some good points.

Disagree on the market size as Couev pointed out, but yes, the revenue will be less with a good chance a good amount less, how much remains to be seen and the PAC seems to have overestimated their worth AND shot themselves in the foot by now having to look at the same teams for acceptance.

And you’re right UNLV would have seemed a perfect fit and capped off their coup, and as you said would make them seem legit.

That’s not egotism, because everyone knows how poorly we’ve performed over the years, but plug in any other team (other than those they’ve already been rejected by) and tell me the PAC is gonna look legit. This is the shooting themselves in the foot part.

I think the $18 million number has a good chance of holding, but at dead worst it’s gonna be $12 million since that’s basically the amount that will be withheld from future payments to any of the leaving teams. They can try to sue, but I don’t think anybody is getting a refund.

When all is said and done UNLV will have made/saved at a bare minimum $25 million by staying. Another thing is that when that money and that move becomes relevant. Here’s what I mean by that:

Had UNLV decided to go to the PAC they would have seen their las bit of income from the MW… that’s $6 million in June 2025 and $6 million in June 2026. They would not see a dollar in media revenue until a PAC media deal kicked in and who know when that would be, but I’m going to assume it’s not til June of 2027 or thereabouts.

By staying, UNLV will get those payments, plus the bonus promised ($10-$12 million?) in 2025, plus normal distribution of $6 million and a smaller bonus ($1.8 million?) in 2026. Between now and 2026 that’s $24-$26 million you get and $12 million you don’t lose, so the difference in money on hand by June 2026 is $36-$38 million.

The next part of it is that any difference in reduced revenue you get from the MW’s next deal versus what you might get in the PACs new deal doesn’t occur until 2027… it’s at that point that you can start to deduct what you’re making from what you could’ve made. You’ve also got to remember that each year for 5 years (assuming UNLV stayed with the MW for the duration) there is roughly another $1.5 million coming to UNLV on top of whatever they get from the new media deal.

And the clock doesn’t start counting down for almost 3 years.

Nobody knows what the difference in media rights payments between the two conferences is going to be, but even if it’s a $5 million difference (which based on what I’ve read seems possible to not even be that much)… it ends up only being a $3.5 million deficit for 5 years through 2032. At that point UNLV would still be up roughly $20 million.

As far as comparing the two leagues… no it’s not close for football. They definitely have a leg up and an advantage… but they’re still G5 and they’re not the clear G5 favorite over the AAC.

Only one G5 is getting in any given year and so much luck and favoritism goes into who that’s going to be that I’d argue the AAC has a better chance year in and year out because of the footprint of their league. They’re just in WAY more markets. The PAC really screwed themselves by concentrating their footprint the way they have.

If I was putting a percentage on chances a G5 team from one of the leagues gets the CFP spot Id say AAC 45%, PAC 35%, anybody else 20%.

Leg up? You bet. Guaranteed to actually be a successful league… nope.

And basketball… less advantage than you might think. Aside from StDSU, none of them have been world beaters. In any given year any one of them CAN be good, but there’s more than a little bit of parity with the rest of them and none of them have near the potential to become big basketball brands, other than StDSU of course.

On the other hand UNLV and UNM have tremendous potential. UNM fan support is outstanding and UNLV has more unrealized potential than maybe anyone in the country.

If KK doesn’t deliver a top 25 ranking and an NCAA appearance, and maybe a win of at least one game, you’ve got enough money to pay Odom AND hire a coach who can deliver those things.

So those things make me feel better about things.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

They weren’t offering us anything, not a dime. They don’t have much money which explains some of the odd moves like lowballing Memphis and telling USU to pay their own way and then finally suing the MWC to delay payments on the penalty.

Not a good sign for an upstart conference. I’m real surprised the PAC bungled things so badly and I think this points to the mismanagement of their finances, the PAC 1.0 settlement money was probably used to fund their own departments to keep running like they were a P5 program. I haven’t seen either pac2 school announce any budget cuts and trimmed things down to be in the best possible position. Blew all their money on 4 MWC schools and now lawyers.

The MWC defectors are going to take a big hit over the next couple years prior to the move. The stories of the PAC getting 10-15 million were probably paid stories by the PAC to generate interest.

You don't know what the Pac offered UNLV. However, you could be right. I'm morbidly curious to hear the whole story(ies) behind this train wreck. Although in their fashion, the Pac and WSU won't reveal anything other than sunshine and daisies.

WSU has reduced its FY 25 budget by - I believe - $7M this current year. No executive mgt cuts of course.

Unrelated, the threads on your coach and Sluka hit a little close to home. Our coach could very well be on the radar if the Cougs have a good year, firmly on it if we have a great year. An QB John Mateer (#10 Heisman candidate now apparently) makes Sluka look like a toddler both on the ground and through the air. Thank Gawd he's played in 4 games, but he is too high character too pull that shit anyway. Plus he for sure has his pick of WSU honies every day of the week.

 

[dcut03]

So you're not talking market, more footprint and penetration. There's some venn overlap but they're not the same thing--I know it's been a few decades since I took a media related course, but my umbrage stems from you using the wrong term. I think i disagree that we have the 7th of 8 footprints this season, but we're definitely in the bottom half.




Fresno State has multiple games with under 100k views (buoyed by the game @ Michigan) (For the rest of the schedule both Wyoming and New Mexico have out-rated them. Boise, apart from the Oregon game has been well behind us on their games this year. Utah State has multiple games below 100k views. Colorado State had a @ Texas and @ Colorado this year so their numbers look really good on average even when you got well below 100k views for their other 2 games. Oregon State and Wazzu are clearly better than us, but have already played the Apple Cup and the Civil War this season. When they hit MWC plays I'll be you 100 dollars that they don't even average 1.0 million views per game this year, much less the 2 million plus they managed last year.

This really is all somewhat moot what WE think the market values are.

The things that matters is what THEIR media partners value these schools. They are writing the checks. They are looking at the data, they are making these decisions.

I believe every move has been made under the guidance of their media partners. This has been reported. According to them we are at best 5th in the current MW.

I don't think any team in the current MW is worth more than the PAC 2. At least not to their partners. Now the usage of their infrastructure probably plays a role in all of this.

But I think many of these numbers were legit. I do think it was 12 mil with the AAC 4 and with Gonzaga.

I think if UNLV was #8, then the deal would have been 8-10 per team. I don't think the swap of the AAC 4 with with new MW 2 would swing the per team payout by more than 33%.

Again re alignment doesn't happen without TV partners. They are driving the bus. I think all deals are made because of this.

 

[Boston Rebel 2]

This really is all somewhat moot what WE think the market values are.

The things that matters is what THEIR media partners value these schools. They are writing the checks. They are looking at the data, they are making these decisions.

I believe every move has been made under the guidance of their media partners. This has been reported. According to them we are at best 5th in the current MW.

I don't think any team in the current MW is worth more than the PAC 2. At least not to their partners. Now the usage of their infrastructure probably plays a role in all of this.

But I think many of these numbers were legit. I do think it was 12 mil with the AAC 4 and with Gonzaga.

I think if UNLV was #8, then the deal would have been 8-10 per team. I don't think the swap of the AAC 4 with with new MW 2 would swing the per team payout by more than 33%.

Again re alignment doesn't happen without TV partners. They are driving the bus. I think all deals are made because of this.

It's funny how badly they F'd it up. Intentional sabotage couldn't have been much worse. If they were smart they should have invited enough members day one to dissolve the MWC and instead saved the departure fees to pay more to the 4 AAC schools to leave. Then you have a hell of a conference with TV money better than either conference is getting now.

 

[Masked_rebel]

It really is bad business in the sense that she torched relationships by announcing 4 teams and using terms like "reviewed the metrics" for those you invited.. You immediately placed an "elitist" view on the rest of the programs you wanted to attract. Then you allow an article to be written where you thump your chest at this massively secretive takeover like you had won announcing to everyone that part of the offers had been to off paying exit fees for the 4 teams to join you.. Then you thought because no one could possibly say no to joining the "best top to bottom G5", you'd low ball your eastern partners... Except they didnt appreciate the low ball and disrespect, and neither did the next tier of MWC schools. So you thought heck we'll take USU despite all its current problems and that will cause the MWC to crumble... Except it didnt and now your best target in the MWC said no and took a huge payday, immediately increasing their programs viability... Now all your other targets are been courted by the MWC and their commissioner has better relationships and understands the game... Will be a fascinating article/30 for 30 or something once the dust settles.

 

[Boston Rebel 2]

It really is bad business in the sense that she torched relationships by announcing 4 teams and using terms like "reviewed the metrics" for those you invited.. You immediately placed an "elitist" view on the rest of the programs you wanted to attract. Then you allow an article to be written where you thump your chest at this massively secretive takeover like you had won announcing to everyone that part of the offers had been to off paying exit fees for the 4 teams to join you.. Then you thought because no one could possibly say no to joining the "best top to bottom G5", you'd low ball your eastern partners... Except they didnt appreciate the low ball and disrespect, and neither did the next tier of MWC schools. So you thought heck we'll take USU despite all its current problems and that will cause the MWC to crumble... Except it didnt and now your best target in the MWC said no and took a huge payday, immediately increasing their programs viability... Now all your other targets are been courted by the MWC and their commissioner has better relationships and understands the game... Will be a fascinating article/30 for 30 or something once the dust settles.

She let her lady wood get in the way of common sense.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Suck it Pac!

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

She let her lady wood get in the way of common sense.

HER LADY WOOD!

 

[dcut03]

Agree on some… disagree on some… and you have some good points.

Disagree on the market size as Couev pointed out, but yes, the revenue will be less with a good chance a good amount less, how much remains to be seen and the PAC seems to have overestimated their worth AND shot themselves in the foot by now having to look at the same teams for acceptance.

And you’re right UNLV would have seemed a perfect fit and capped off their coup, and as you said would make them seem legit.

That’s not egotism, because everyone knows how poorly we’ve performed over the years, but plug in any other team (other than those they’ve already been rejected by) and tell me the PAC is gonna look legit. This is the shooting themselves in the foot part.

I think the $18 million number has a good chance of holding, but at dead worst it’s gonna be $12 million since that’s basically the amount that will be withheld from future payments to any of the leaving teams. They can try to sue, but I don’t think anybody is getting a refund.

When all is said and done UNLV will have made/saved at a bare minimum $25 million by staying. Another thing is that when that money and that move becomes relevant. Here’s what I mean by that:

Had UNLV decided to go to the PAC they would have seen their las bit of income from the MW… that’s $6 million in June 2025 and $6 million in June 2026. They would not see a dollar in media revenue until a PAC media deal kicked in and who know when that would be, but I’m going to assume it’s not til June of 2027 or thereabouts.

By staying, UNLV will get those payments, plus the bonus promised ($10-$12 million?) in 2025, plus normal distribution of $6 million and a smaller bonus ($1.8 million?) in 2026. Between now and 2026 that’s $24-$26 million you get and $12 million you don’t lose, so the difference in money on hand by June 2026 is $36-$38 million.

The next part of it is that any difference in reduced revenue you get from the MW’s next deal versus what you might get in the PACs new deal doesn’t occur until 2027… it’s at that point that you can start to deduct what you’re making from what you could’ve made. You’ve also got to remember that each year for 5 years (assuming UNLV stayed with the MW for the duration) there is roughly another $1.5 million coming to UNLV on top of whatever they get from the new media deal.

And the clock doesn’t start counting down for almost 3 years.

Nobody knows what the difference in media rights payments between the two conferences is going to be, but even if it’s a $5 million difference (which based on what I’ve read seems possible to not even be that much)… it ends up only being a $3.5 million deficit for 5 years through 2032. At that point UNLV would still be up roughly $20 million.

As far as comparing the two leagues… no it’s not close for football. They definitely have a leg up and an advantage… but they’re still G5 and they’re not the clear G5 favorite over the AAC.

Only one G5 is getting in any given year and so much luck and favoritism goes into who that’s going to be that I’d argue the AAC has a better chance year in and year out because of the footprint of their league. They’re just in WAY more markets. The PAC really screwed themselves by concentrating their footprint the way they have.

If I was putting a percentage on chances a G5 team from one of the leagues gets the CFP spot Id say AAC 45%, PAC 35%, anybody else 20%.

Leg up? You bet. Guaranteed to actually be a successful league… nope.

And basketball… less advantage than you might think. Aside from StDSU, none of them have been world beaters. In any given year any one of them CAN be good, but there’s more than a little bit of parity with the rest of them and none of them have near the potential to become big basketball brands, other than StDSU of course.

On the other hand UNLV and UNM have tremendous potential. UNM fan support is outstanding and UNLV has more unrealized potential than maybe anyone in the country.

If KK doesn’t deliver a top 25 ranking and an NCAA appearance, and maybe a win of at least one game, you’ve got enough money to pay Odom AND hire a coach who can deliver those things.

So those things make me feel better about things.

Fair point, about the 12 mil. I do think that can be talked down as well. The PAC was able to do it. But I think assuming it stays at 12 mil is fair.

AS for new G5 conferences I would give the new PAC a pretty big edge, just because they are still better at the top and stronger throughout. so maybe 60%/40%

Good point on the loss of money by annoucing now with the future payout difference and the flat bonus we are getting. Though I think only the flat payment really matters, the rest of the distrubution is just going to supplement our new sh!tty contract, it total value with the extra stipend could easily be less than what we are making now.

Also the goal is to get out of this new MW ASAP. I think UNLV is going all in, and said no to the PAC and will push for the Big 12. so the end goal goal is that we don't see that much of the 25 mil promised, because hopefully we are gone before the second half is paid to us.

But it does feel like we won a modest jackpot, but have to take a paycut at our job, instead of taking the new job where they aren't offering moving expenses but our salary will be raised 2x-3 over the current payout

All that being said, If we are truly going all n for P4, I can get down with that. It probably isn't the smartest long term play, but if they think it is truly attainable, then eff it. Let's go for it!

 

[unlove]

Fair point, about the 12 mil. I do think that can be talked down as well. The PAC was able to do it. But I think assuming it stays at 12 mil is fair.

AS for new G5 conferences I would give the new PAC a pretty big edge, just because they are still better at the top and stronger throughout. so maybe 60%/40%

Good point on the loss of money by annoucing now with the future payout difference and the flat bonus we are getting. Though I think only the flat payment really matters, the rest of the distrubution is just going to supplement our new sh!tty contract, it total value with the extra stipend could easily be less than what we are making now.

Also the goal is to get out of this new MW ASAP. I think UNLV is going all in, and said no to the PAC and will push for the Big 12. so the end goal goal is that we don't see that much of the 25 mil promised, because hopefully we are gone before the second half is paid to us.

But it does feel like we won a modest jackpot, but have to take a paycut at our job, instead of taking the new job where they aren't offering moving expenses but our salary will be raised 2x-3 over the current payout

All that being said, If we are truly going all n for P4, I can get down with that. It probably isn't the smartest long term play, but if they think it is truly attainable, then eff it. Let's go for it!

And the door to the PAC will never be fully closed so long as we remain as one of the top G5 programs/markets. Latter will only get better. Former is the big question. Hence go for the $$ and plow it into the program.

 

[Couev]

This really is all somewhat moot what WE think the market values are.

The things that matters is what THEIR media partners value these schools. They are writing the checks. They are looking at the data, they are making these decisions.

I believe every move has been made under the guidance of their media partners. This has been reported. According to them we are at best 5th in the current MW.

I don't think any team in the current MW is worth more than the PAC 2. At least not to their partners. Now the usage of their infrastructure probably plays a role in all of this.

But I think many of these numbers were legit. I do think it was 12 mil with the AAC 4 and with Gonzaga.

I think if UNLV was #8, then the deal would have been 8-10 per team. I don't think the swap of the AAC 4 with with new MW 2 would swing the per team payout by more than 33%.

Again re alignment doesn't happen without TV partners. They are driving the bus. I think all deals are made because of this.

Of course, the value of a product is what a market is willing to offer--and maybe the PAC did leak actual numbers or have someone at like the CW ball park them with 12 million. With the streaming market hungry for sports content, and the profitability of even low viewership sports we might both be surprised--but I would tend to agree that the PAC is going to attract a little more money even with a SactoSt lineup than the current MWC iteration will.

But the cost, even if negotiated down will take years to make up even if the poaching penalty in unenforceable, especially if there are uneven shares on the first couple of years. Wazzu is in better shape financial than OSU--but they both were pretty deep in the red in some of these leaked numbers I saw floating around pre-PAC7.

If they needed the AAC teams, why did they float a 2.5 million payment for their exit fees when the AAC has a much tougher exit fee policy if shorter than 24 months. Given the flagship programs being deep in the red, given that they handled the expansion like someone that wanted an Acura but showed up with Honda Civic money, and given that there hasn't been any deal solidified I sort of feel like we're in a better position as long as we are growing properly. I don't think the PAC will ever be anything better than MWC+, and I can't really see going as a publically demonstrated 3rd choice, where I have to pay between 18-29 million to take a lesser share in a conference.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

It really is bad business in the sense that she torched relationships by announcing 4 teams and using terms like "reviewed the metrics" for those you invited.. You immediately placed an "elitist" view on the rest of the programs you wanted to attract. Then you allow an article to be written where you thump your chest at this massively secretive takeover like you had won announcing to everyone that part of the offers had been to off paying exit fees for the 4 teams to join you.. Then you thought because no one could possibly say no to joining the "best top to bottom G5", you'd low ball your eastern partners... Except they didnt appreciate the low ball and disrespect, and neither did the next tier of MWC schools. So you thought heck we'll take USU despite all its current problems and that will cause the MWC to crumble... Except it didnt and now your best target in the MWC said no and took a huge payday, immediately increasing their programs viability... Now all your other targets are been courted by the MWC and their commissioner has better relationships and understands the game... Will be a fascinating article/30 for 30 or something once the dust settles.

No argument from this Coug......

 

[dcut03]

Of course, the value of a product is what a market is willing to offer--and maybe the PAC did leak actual numbers or have someone at like the CW ball park them with 12 million. With the streaming market hungry for sports content, and the profitability of even low viewership sports we might both be surprised--but I would tend to agree that the PAC is going to attract a little more money even with a SactoSt lineup than the current MWC iteration will.

But the cost, even if negotiated down will take years to make up even if the poaching penalty in unenforceable, especially if there are uneven shares on the first couple of years. Wazzu is in better shape financial than OSU--but they both were pretty deep in the red in some of these leaked numbers I saw floating around pre-PAC7.

If they needed the AAC teams, why did they float a 2.5 million payment for their exit fees when the AAC has a much tougher exit fee policy if shorter than 24 months. Given the flagship programs being deep in the red, given that they handled the expansion like someone that wanted an Acura but showed up with Honda Civic money, and given that there hasn't been any deal solidified I sort of feel like we're in a better position as long as we are growing properly. I don't think the PAC will ever be anything better than MWC+, and I can't really see going as a publically demonstrated 3rd choice, where I have to pay between 18-29 million to take a lesser share in a conference.

I don't buy that we were offered a lesser share, other than perhaps less help with exit fees.

I think that we made a decision to keep the Big 12 option open. Committing to the PAC almost effectively closes that door.

They lowballed the AAC, and I think they were way unprepared on what it would take to get them out of that conference. An extra 4 mil a year isn't great if they are on the hook for say even 16 mill in exit fees. Especially with travel costs. I also think that Memphis was driving the bus, and like us they didn't want to close the door on the ACC or the Big 12, because they are prime Target for those conferences.

But how can you believe "I don't think the PAC will ever be anything better than MWC+" Its simple math. Every team brings an average value to a media contract. Some raise it, some lower it, some are in the middle. If you take the 4 highest teams ( at least to your partners) take one middle team, and cut out all of the detractors, it will be significantly better than all of the teams together. It will be much better than the new MW, and definitely better than the current MW. They knew what the MW+ was going to get, they crunched numbers, and decided to break free. Knowing that they were looking at poaching and exit fees to overcome. You just don't do that with a notable improvement in annual revenue.

 

[Meister_Rebel]

Per the Chicago Tribune, Northern Illinois has not received a formal offer from the MWC. All the shyt we've been through this week they are wondering where that offer is. Calm your tits.

 

[oneepstein]

Fair point, about the 12 mil. I do think that can be talked down as well. The PAC was able to do it. But I think assuming it stays at 12 mil is fair.

AS for new G5 conferences I would give the new PAC a pretty big edge, just because they are still better at the top and stronger throughout. so maybe 60%/40%

Good point on the loss of money by annoucing now with the future payout difference and the flat bonus we are getting. Though I think only the flat payment really matters, the rest of the distrubution is just going to supplement our new sh!tty contract, it total value with the extra stipend could easily be less than what we are making now.

Also the goal is to get out of this new MW ASAP. I think UNLV is going all in, and said no to the PAC and will push for the Big 12. so the end goal goal is that we don't see that much of the 25 mil promised, because hopefully we are gone before the second half is paid to us.

But it does feel like we won a modest jackpot, but have to take a paycut at our job, instead of taking the new job where they aren't offering moving expenses but our salary will be raised 2x-3 over the current payout

All that being said, If we are truly going all n for P4, I can get down with that. It probably isn't the smartest long term play, but if they think it is truly attainable, then eff it. Let's go for it!

PACs gonna have a big leg up on everyone except the AAC… between the two of them? I’d skew at worst 50/50 for the reasons I gave (larger footprint media wise/east coast bias)… but 60/40 is fine for these purposes. I’d still put any other league in any given years odds at no worse than 10%. I’d ask myself if I thought that the PAC would get a team into the CFP every other year… to me there’s a lot that has to go right and a lot that can go wrong in any given season for a single team in a G5 to make the CFP. Variance is HUGE, and like I said in another thread, god forbid your conference mates crap the bed in the non con… even your wins could make you look worse. There are no guarantees.

The loss of money (or not in our case) plus the flat payment next year is WAY bigger a deal than I think people realize. Until I really thought about it I was dead set against all of this bs… when i thought about it though it made a ton of sense.

The smaller payments later are just as you say, helping supplement money we’re not getting as being a part of the PAC. But like I said, if we end up at $5 million and they end up at $10 million, that extra roughly $1.5 million a year means you only cost yourself $3.5 million a year through 2032.

After reflection I think this does more to help us move to a P4 than being broke in the best (arguable) G5.

So yeah, B12 or bust.

 

[Masked_rebel]

Per the Chicago Tribune, Northern Illinois has not received a formal offer from the MWC. All the shyt we've been through this week they are wondering where that offer is. Calm your tits.

Right.. The reports merely indicated that Gloria had reached out the MAC commissioner to let him know she was going to talk to them.. Not that they had offered anything.

 

[Couev]

I don't buy that we were offered a lesser share, other than perhaps less help with exit fees.

We don't even know what the exit fees are going to end up being, and if your personal belief is the only judge of veracity I'm not sure what the point of having discussions are. I've seen 'burner leaks' that said 2.5 million and 50% share for 2 years. I don't know how good they are, but even if it's just less help you're creating a whole imbalance and how many years of 50% is 12-18 million on their deal? Oh that's right, we have no idea what the deal will be either.

They lowballed the AAC, and I think they were way unprepared on what it would take to get them out of that conference. An extra 4 mil a year isn't great if they are on the hook for say even 16 mill in exit fees. Especially with travel costs. I also think that Memphis was driving the bus, and like us they didn't want to close the door on the ACC or the Big 12, because they are prime Target for those conferences.

They lowballed the AAC teams, the scuttle butt is they offered 2.5 million in fee assistance and 100% shares in the media deal. We were a tier after them, why would get the same offer as their first choice. It just doesn't compute.

But how can you believe "I don't think the PAC will ever be anything better than MWC+" Its simple math. Every team brings an average value to a media contract. Some raise it, some lower it, some are in the middle. If you take the 4 highest teams ( at least to your partners) take one middle team, and cut out all of the detractors, it will be significantly better than all of the teams together. It will be much better than the new MW, and definitely better than the current MW. They new what the MW+ was going to get, they crunched numbers, and decided to break free. Knowing that they were looking and poaching and exit fees. You just don't do that with a notable improvement in annual revenue.

Because right now the MWC with the dead weight is arguable the first or second best G5 conferencef or football depending on your metrics. Do you think that the PAC in it's current alignment with teams drawing less than 100k views THIS season are somehow going to lift the to P5 status? I think the odds are they will be better than the current MWC IF they get a much better deal, but you're leaning a lot of that hope on programs that have underperformed in football recently. I just don't see them becoming a consistant 5th Power conference, so that's what MWC+ means to me. Do you disagree with the logic? If it makes you feel any better I think the current MWC is going to be the AAC-, top loaded with a couple of tough schools and then a lot of below average programs.