Probably too early to talk about requirements for an NCAA bit but we did just beat a ranked team at the Mack for the first time since 2014.
I've always believed in realistic quantitative goals. With that in mind, what do the Rebels most likely need to do ( how many wins) to get to the dance?
It's almost a crap shoot to try to get a read this early on the number of spots we will get. But based on the last few years, I'm going with three - just for this post.
So, how do we get there?
1. Win the Tourney. This is where we have put our hopes almost yearly.
2. Lose in the finals and be in the conference's top three. ( with an acceptable NET ranking)
3. Lose in the semi's to the Tourney winner or the Conference winner and be in the conference's top three. (with an acceptable NET rating.)
So, how do we get in a position to not need to win the MWC Tourney ( i.e get a high enough Net)
A. Take care of business OOC. We already have a quality win. Beating Southern Ill, Washington State and USF would help as they are all ranked above us. Beating all three convincingly would really help. Also, we need to beat down the rest. Failing to cover when we are favorites counts against us in NET. With this schedule, losing two or three would most likely doom us to winning the Tourney.
B. Lose no more than 5 games in Conference. In the past 10 years, 5 losses guaranteed at least a third-place finish - and second-place half the time. Entering the Tourney fourth or lower would almost guarantee us having to win the Tourney.
If we go into the MWC tourney with @ 5 losses and win the Semi the NCAA selection committee would have a hard time turning us down. But drop more than one OOC game or lose six or more Conference games and we'd most likely need to win the Tourney.
I've always believed in realistic quantitative goals. With that in mind, what do the Rebels most likely need to do ( how many wins) to get to the dance?
It's almost a crap shoot to try to get a read this early on the number of spots we will get. But based on the last few years, I'm going with three - just for this post.
So, how do we get there?
1. Win the Tourney. This is where we have put our hopes almost yearly.
2. Lose in the finals and be in the conference's top three. ( with an acceptable NET ranking)
3. Lose in the semi's to the Tourney winner or the Conference winner and be in the conference's top three. (with an acceptable NET rating.)
So, how do we get in a position to not need to win the MWC Tourney ( i.e get a high enough Net)
A. Take care of business OOC. We already have a quality win. Beating Southern Ill, Washington State and USF would help as they are all ranked above us. Beating all three convincingly would really help. Also, we need to beat down the rest. Failing to cover when we are favorites counts against us in NET. With this schedule, losing two or three would most likely doom us to winning the Tourney.
B. Lose no more than 5 games in Conference. In the past 10 years, 5 losses guaranteed at least a third-place finish - and second-place half the time. Entering the Tourney fourth or lower would almost guarantee us having to win the Tourney.
If we go into the MWC tourney with @ 5 losses and win the Semi the NCAA selection committee would have a hard time turning us down. But drop more than one OOC game or lose six or more Conference games and we'd most likely need to win the Tourney.
