Eligible but not chosen?
- Thread starter Buffel
- Start date
6-6 and another year with a red cannon and I think he is retained. If we lose to Reno and finish with a 6-6 record, he might be toast. Ya think 6 wins would secure his job since UNLV football has only achieved that win total 3 times in the last 20 years. Coming from a program that has an average of 3 wins per season, You think they'd throw a parade for him if he got to 6 wins ?!?! I wouldn't like if he got canned, unless they had a big name coach lined up to replace him (we are talking about UNLV athletics here). 6 wins is improvement in the right direction.
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It's a tough call..
6 wins, based on UNLV's history would be great.
But with no bowl would it get new people out to games next year?
There will be a bump in ticket sales with the stadium.
Die hard fans like those on here would mostly view 6 wins even without a bowl as enough progress to keep him.
But.
People on the outside looking in? I'm not sure it moves the needle much.
UNLV needs a lot of butts in seats starting next year.
The only two ways to get more people fired up or interested in going are...
A big season. Like getting to a bowl.
Or
Making a splash hire.
I don't know if UNLV could find a way to make a big hire.
But should that be a reason to accept middling results (I know 6-6 would be great by UNLV standards)? I don't know..
Let's hope it's a great season so we don't need a WHO REPLACES SANCHEZ thread.
The last time we had a 6-6 record in 2003 we did make it to a bowl game. If Tony finishes 5-7 than he most likely is gone....if Tony finishes 7-5, than he most likely is retained. 6-6 and it could go either way....Lets hope Tony wins 8 games and takes out all the guess work.
Like you and I have discussed before, if my worst enemy was a UNLV coach, I'd want he or she to be 100-0 in their first 100 games.
I love Sanchez as a UNLV coach. He represents with city very well. The important stat, though, is not how many times he's ridden on the Eye. It's his win total and how he's trending. If replaced, the new coach won't be as enthusiastic about UNLV as he is. I truly believe he's all in on the job. I'm just not sure that he has the chops for it.
Agree.
You could make a solid argument either way.
Take Hauck for example.
He goes 7-5 lost the bowl. But he had struggled mightily his first few seasons.
But because UNLV hadn't been to a bowl in awhile a lot of the sentiment was 'how do you fire a guy coming off the first bowl season in a decade.
Hindsight being what it is, the move to extend him proved to be wrong. Rebs floundered the next year.
It's a tough question.
It boils down to..
Which would be more damaging to the program..
Fire a guy a year to early?
Fire a guy a year to late?
Tough to say with certainty that the next guy wouldn't be all in though.
I mean no coach comes to UNLV thinking 'I totally want to set my career back 5 years'.
I agree Sanchez has embraced the city.
I'm sure he's busting his ass to get this done.
But he kind of has to.
His situation is different than Hauck or Sanford.
Sanford was a respected coordinator who had options when he was let go. He was going to find another college coaching gig at some level or work as a coordinator.
Same with Hauck. He could drop down to the FCS level. He had success there in the past.
Sanchez is different. If he fails to turn it around at the FBS level then where does he go?
What University would hire him? Sure if it brought along Fertitta money, a place like New Mexico State or a SJSU might take that gamble again. But I think that well is dried up for him if it doesn't work at UNLV.
I don't know that he has a reputation as a brilliant or innovative offensive or defensive mind.
If he should 'fail' it won't be from a lack of effort. And he would definitely leave the program in a better place.
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IMO, it doesn’t matter what his record is this year. If he beat teams he suppose to beat and beat some 50/50 teams...then competitive with teams he have no business beating....he’s staying. Coach Sanchez ain’t going nowhere...the AD might, though
I have thought about this a lot. I really like Sanchez the guy, the better half and I have met him a number of times and sat and chatted with him for a lengths and he always remembers her and what she does. Regardless of what happens to him following this year, he'll be a guy whose career I follow at all levels.
That said, he played WR at Laney and NMSU, coached wideouts and secondary at times at the high school level, then became a head coach. Fairly atypical path to end up as a D1 head coach.
I wouldn't assume he gets a coordinator or head job in D1-A. Possibly 1AA. He could get a head job at D2 or any high school in the country. Depending on where his passion is and what level he wants to be at, he could be some sort of funding organizer at D1A level if he's willing to step off the field. He has that personality for sure. Not sure he could be a position coach at D1 either, so he's got a very unique set of skills that set him on a strange path....
By all accounts he's a good guy.
He brings a ton of energy.
I just think if this doesn't work, his path back to the college ranks might be more difficult.
However he is by most accounts a good recruiter.
That could be his path if this season goes south..
With the schedule UNLV has this season if they get six wins they should be a bowl lock. Against last year's schedule the Rebels could have made 6 wins and still not be in the top 100 - and then would have been questionable. I realize that there is more to making the a bowl than computer ranking (bowls consider viewership and fan support), but this schedule should put UNLV in the upper level of 6 win teams.
MWC teams getting 6 wins and no bowl does happen, like Wyoming last year... but Wyoming's schedule caused it (Wofford, Gardner Webb, NMSU).
MWC teams getting 6 wins and no bowl does happen, like Wyoming last year... but Wyoming's schedule caused it (Wofford, Gardner Webb, NMSU).
Good point - hadn't thought about recruiting or personnel. That would be a pretty good direction as well. Between his skill set and connections from Gorman and UNLV, he's probably got a few options, not sure many are on the field at the college level.
Six this year should do it.
Figure
SUU
WYO
CSU
SJSU
Are probably viewed as most winnable.
Meaning you would need two of these three?
Reno, Ark State, Hawaii.
Unless all three completely implode I would think that would be enough.
Experience has caused me to temper my expectations on any conference road games. UNLV does not travel well to the front range. I don't know if it is the 7200' elevation of Laramie or what. I see:
Most winnable:
SUU
Ark St
Hawaii
SJSU
Hope for 2 of 4:
Wyo
CSU
UNR
SDSU
Why I have trouble counting on road wins (until we have a team that breaks the trends):
- UNLV has lost their last 5 games in Laramie
- UNLV has won 3 of the last 4 against Wyoming here in LV
- UNLV has lost their last 6 games in Fort Collins
- UNLV has won 2 of their last 3 against CSU here in LV
- UNLV has lost 5 of their last 6 games in Hawaii
- UNLV has won 5 strait games against Hawaii here in LV
- UNLV has lost 8 of their last 9 games against San Jose (one win was here in LV)
- UNLV has lost 11 of their last 14 games against UNR (two wins in Reno!)
DRF quote “We are looking forward to a successful 2019 football season, including bowl eligibility, continued improvement in the classroom and, as always, a positive student-athlete experience,” Reed-Francois said. “We have invested more resources than ever into the Rebel football program and will continue exploring every avenue to enable it to be competitive.”
To me "bowl eligibility" is clear. He wins 6 and has no scandal he stays. Wins less he's gone.
I don't read it the same way. I read if he doesn't win 6, he's canned. If he wins six or seven, I don't think he's automatically safe. I don't think it's do or die... it could be die or die...
I say this because of certain reasons that I'm sure you are already aware of. It's not like she didn't try to make a move already...
Of course, it's hard to fire a coach that wins 7 games and makes a bowl game - since it's been done only a handful of times over the many years.... but how "hard" is it, really, when nobody is really paying attention or putting stock into it? All eyes are going to be on the new stadium more than the Rebels...
I don't know man.
Its rumored their relationship is strained at best if not contentious.
To the point she had Jim Mora Jr on campus last year I believe after the SJSU loss.
She wanted Sanchez out last year.
Fertitta's forked over the rest of the money for the facility getting UNLV off the hook. Basically in exchange for Sanchez getting his fifth year.
By all accounts she had a booster willing to help cover I believe the buyout and Mora. But no money for the facility. The President stepped in and made the final call. Ensuring the completion of the facility.
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7 wins he's safe.
I'm not sure just being bowl eligible is enough though.
If the argument was made last year that the drop back to 4 wins was just a bump in the road the same argument could be made about 6 wins but no bowl birth as simply a blip.
If they win 6 but no bowl, it basically means their resume (wins) weren't good enough.
I think he has to make a bowl.
I'd go so far as to say he might have to win it.
Finishing 6-7 is still a losing record. Bowl birth or not.
If he gets to 7 wins vs this schedule he absolutely deserves to stay regardless of any bowl outcome.
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6 wins and he should keep his job. It's only been done a handful of times in the history of the program. Unfortunately, I just don't have much confidence after what we've seen from Sanchez and Armani. Arkansas St. game will make or break Sanchez's future at UNLV in my opinion.
That's where I disagree. Because of past failures the school should be content with middling results?
6-6 and no bowl would mean he beat the bottom feeders in the conference and no signature win.
It would be 5 years with no winning seasons. No wins vs the P5. No bowl appearances.
Even Hauck had a winning season and a bowl bid.
Sanford had two P5 scalps to his credit.
Sanchez would have none of those things.
I think he has to make a bowl.
6 wins for this team would be statistically hugely "overachieving" according to the professional oddsmakers, who set the line at 4 wins. Getting 50% more wins than projected reflects well on any coaching staff.
Also, the (1) actual games count as much to me as the total record (for firing decisions). Last season after that six week losing stretch when we completely owned at home by UNM 50-14, at USU 59-28, at SJSU, and at home to Fresno 48-3 I was ready for a coaching change.
In basketball Menzies put up decent records but for me (and I think a lot of people) it was the games themselves that were the dealbreaker. His recruiting was promising. He was trending toward a top 3 finish in the MWC. But games like Bucknell last winter were just pathetic.
Also for me (2) the direction the program is headed matters a lot. I really like the recruiting class that is already committed by August, particularly the three teammates from southern Cal, and 6 wins should keep most of those guys on board. This could be UNLV's top HS class ever.
Finally, (3) having the next coach lined up is critical. Maybe DRF does. Hopefully this season goes well and we won't have to find out. Two years ago it was clearly time for DC Baer to go (Howard loss our D seemed to be outcoached nearly every drive) but also the coaching change at Florida made Tim Skipper available.
Managing a coaching change and selling it to the boosters and fan base is also important. Everybody talks about the Fertittas, but I believe the Fertittas are result oriented and understand the importance of producing wins. The Sanchez family and Fertitta family could be on the outs this season anyway if Bishop Gorman underachieves. I still am unclear just how DRF managed the booster angle during the basketball coach hire, but she did have a plan (we'll find out what long-term affects that has on booster support).
Also, the (1) actual games count as much to me as the total record (for firing decisions). Last season after that six week losing stretch when we completely owned at home by UNM 50-14, at USU 59-28, at SJSU, and at home to Fresno 48-3 I was ready for a coaching change.
In basketball Menzies put up decent records but for me (and I think a lot of people) it was the games themselves that were the dealbreaker. His recruiting was promising. He was trending toward a top 3 finish in the MWC. But games like Bucknell last winter were just pathetic.
Also for me (2) the direction the program is headed matters a lot. I really like the recruiting class that is already committed by August, particularly the three teammates from southern Cal, and 6 wins should keep most of those guys on board. This could be UNLV's top HS class ever.
Finally, (3) having the next coach lined up is critical. Maybe DRF does. Hopefully this season goes well and we won't have to find out. Two years ago it was clearly time for DC Baer to go (Howard loss our D seemed to be outcoached nearly every drive) but also the coaching change at Florida made Tim Skipper available.
Managing a coaching change and selling it to the boosters and fan base is also important. Everybody talks about the Fertittas, but I believe the Fertittas are result oriented and understand the importance of producing wins. The Sanchez family and Fertitta family could be on the outs this season anyway if Bishop Gorman underachieves. I still am unclear just how DRF managed the booster angle during the basketball coach hire, but she did have a plan (we'll find out what long-term affects that has on booster support).
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@Bullmastiff 1 You seem to know your football Bull, very logical thinking.. I agree with pretty much everything you say.. If Rebs make a bowl even at the bare minimum with a 6-6 record, i think we all agree CTS stays.. Where i tend to think differently: If Rebs go 6-6 and don't make a bowl, I think CTS should be retained.. Hell, if the Rebs even go 5-7 but look improved doing it (hard to picture), i think CTS should be retained.. If Rebs go 4-8 or worse, then yes, it's time to move on.. The reason why i think CTS deserves a little wiggle room if they do not make a bowl is what will be returning..
Offense Starters: We lose
Darren Woods (WR): Easily replaceable
&
Sid Acosta (OL) & Justin Polu (OL): Very solid/serviceable bigs, but can be replaced given the talent and depth we have at the position..
8/11 Starters returning..
Defense Starters: We lose
Evan Austrie (SS): Solid player but easily replaceable
&
Javon White (LB) & Jericho Flowers (LB): Two very strong players, especially Javon, but once again, can be replaced given the depth and talent we have at the LB position..
8/11 Starters returning..
So.. We have all this talent returning, plus the new Fertitta facility in full effect (thanks to CTS) and the brand new Allegiant Stadium.. I know this season has to produce results and don't get me wrong, there needs to be improvement.. But IMO, 5 wins while securing the Cannon or 6-6 with no bowl, is enough for me to want to give CTS one more year.. I think everyone knows that this roster is capable and should produce this year but I don't think people realize how much more effective and successful they can be next year.. This year should be fun but next year could be SCARY..
Once again, i say all of this because of the talent/players we have returning, I don't think it's smart to risk losing the roster to transfer and give up the foundation that CTS has worked hard to implement and build for success.. Also IMO, i'm not one to think that someone "deserves" anything, results need to speak for itself, but i would really feel bad for CTS if he doesn't get a chance to lead this roster and NEW ERA of Rebel Football into Allegiant stadium next year..
What do you think Bull? Have you considered any of this, thoughts?
A lot to unwrap there.
Start with record/bowl thing.
Looking at the schedule, it's hard to see a combination of 6 wins that wouldn't get them in a bowl.
But if it happened..
I would say he's out. Here's why. Reality is, you and I or the rest of the board or people that already attend games don't matter. We're showing up regardless.
UNLV is chasing/courting new fans. They need them. The increased operations costs make it imperative to get butts in seats at the new stadium.
6-6 wouldn't do it in my opinion. Need a splash season.
Also have to factor in the AD already wanting him out last year and by most accounts a strained relationship.
I think you can make good arguments either way in regards to retaining or not in that scenario.
But because of the need for a big increase in season ticket sales (already better but still need more) and the relationship with the AD I think he would be out.
Tackle the rest tomorrow.
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The should or shouldn’t point is sometimes moot anyway....
I tend to drag out the point I’m trying to make.. lol
I guess in short and in the grand scheme of things, is 6-6 and no bowl or even 5-7 more important than the potential roster fallout that would ensue after the firing of CTS?
First, if you ever compliment @Bullmastiff 1 again you’re fired from here. He’s going to ask for gold star after gold star.
I will agree, much to my chagrin, with the fact that the program needs something or someone exciting going in to Allegiant. A .500 year probably won’t draw new fans in. We are mighty but few here. We need more and more and CTS is a “high school coach” to many of his detractors. He hasn’t won them over and a 6-6 season won’t do it. There was excitement after our 7-win season under Hauck. It quickly left the building the next year but at least there was some initial hype.
If we can get to 7- or 8-wins then there’s hype and hope. 6-wins there’s a lukewarm reaction (even though we’d be over the oddsmakers’ preseason total for our season).
Making a splash is important. Looking at the empty stadium made me think how ridiculous allegiant would look with similar attendance ...
Now there will be a automatic attendance bump next year just for the stadium novelty. There needs to be something else to hope for to sell more fans. Because that attendance bump will be temporary . And we have a real home ooc that season so we have to look like we belong.
Best case for UNLV will be Sanchez and these Rebels turning a corner. A new guy will buy some patience, but that first season again is critical. It would be tough to have a really good first year coming in.
Its possible. Sanchez has brought in some talent. But it is difficult to ask for.
What record is the magic number? That's tough. Winning all the few favored games and a fair share of the toss ups would be a be improvement from last season and probably the season before. This is Sanchez's difficult schedule of at least the past 3 seasons. Does that matter? Maybe not
Now there will be a automatic attendance bump next year just for the stadium novelty. There needs to be something else to hope for to sell more fans. Because that attendance bump will be temporary . And we have a real home ooc that season so we have to look like we belong.
Best case for UNLV will be Sanchez and these Rebels turning a corner. A new guy will buy some patience, but that first season again is critical. It would be tough to have a really good first year coming in.
Its possible. Sanchez has brought in some talent. But it is difficult to ask for.
What record is the magic number? That's tough. Winning all the few favored games and a fair share of the toss ups would be a be improvement from last season and probably the season before. This is Sanchez's difficult schedule of at least the past 3 seasons. Does that matter? Maybe not
The crowd was significantly larger then we have had in the past for games against lower division teams, so it is hard to know what type of attendance will occur for the remainder of the season. It should be noted that most of the west side of the stadium seats are sold out, but at the game there were a lot of empty seats, so I expect a lot of people with tickets didn't go to the game.
Considering it was easily still over 100 degrees at kickoff, that wasn't a bad turnout.
I attended a game in Sam Boyd Stadium some years ago for the first and last time. Problem? The goddam line of cars to get in and then park in dirt. The line I speak of was at least 2 miles long, coming off the ramp at 515, crawling along for at least 20-30 min. Never again.
I think Allegiant Stadium will be a great experience & w/ the Ferttita Center, UNLV's football program should take off.
Another point: At 6-6, the question is: Is this a competitive record? IOW, altho UNLV has not been competitive in the past, is it sufficiently satisfying that UNLV finishes, say, in the top 3 or 5 in the MWC?
The biggest question mark for Allegiant Stadium is the remote parking design that requires locals to take shuttles to the games from different areas of town. That has to set the tone early being efficient, affordable and safe.
Not sure where your coming in from, but I live in summerlin and it generally takes me longer to get from boulder highway/russell to the stadium lot than it takes from summerlin to boulder highway. It was better last year but still not great. Getting out can be just as bad.
