Really all depends on his 40 time at the combine to be honest. I know the 40 should not hold as much sway as it does but in Davis' case if he runs a good 40 time with his size it will help him a ton. I think he compares favorably with DeVante Adams from Fresno who got drafted by Green Bay. From the few reports I read he could go anywhere from 5-7 rounds. If he blows up at the combine he might sneak into the third round.
It hurt him that his senior year was marred by that wrist injury. Had he been able to reproduce his junior season I think he was more of a 3-5 round guy not a 5-7 guy. It also hurt his cause that he was nursing a hamstring injury during the Senior Bowl and wasn't able to show much.
I really like the kid and think any NFL team that takes him will get a solid player.
Davis' game is far superior to Payne. Better route runner, better after the catch, willing to go across the middle, tougher to bring down. Payne may have had more high light reel catches and was great on the jump ball, but Davis is better in every other area.