We knew the offense was going to be an issue... or more accurately, we knew that the offense had the potential to be an issue. Say what you will about Jojo, he could put up points in bunches. When Jordy was good, he could shoot a little or could get to the lane and create easy shots for others. McCoy was as good on the block as we’ve seen in quite some time.
With those key pieces gone, you’ve gotta make up about 45 points per game just to keep us where we were last year. Now I think most would agree that the expectation was that we would be better on defense, and with a better defense, you may not need to recoup all those points. However, you certainly have to get points from somewhere, even if you don’t replace all 45 that left.
For me at least, here’s roughly what I had predicted:
- Noah gets 10 ppg
- Hamilton gets 10 ppg
- Trey gets 6 ppg
- Mbacke goes +4 ppg (6)
- Shakur goes +1 ppg (16)
- Hardy goes +5 ppg (10)
- Beck goes +2 ppg (9)
This is not the whole team, but just how we’d recoup most of the 45 we lost. The predicted increases total 38. From that group in total: 67 ppg.
Tonight, here’s what we got:
- Noah: 3
- Hamilton: 0
- Trey: DNP
- Mbacke: 8
- Shakur: 12
- Hardy: 6
- Beck: 4
That’s 33. About 1/2 of what we need from that group of guys. Magically add those 33 points and you’re looking at a 83-61 victory tonight. I think most of us would be pleased with that, no?
I could draw this out further. Take away the expected production of Hamilton/Trey. That wipes out 16 ppg. Hypothetically gives us a 67-61 victory tonight. A lot tighter, but at least it’s a win.
But to have all of those guys perform so poorly tonight (minus Mbacke... a consensus bright spot so far) was a recipe for disaster.
We’ll have to see how this all plays out. Does Bryce acclimate to this level and become even a 6-7 ppg contributer? Trey? Can Beck/Hardy at least replicate last year’s numbers, or maybe progress a bit? Lots of questions.
One thing we MUST eliminate are the turnovers. So so so sloppy tonight. This team will miss plenty of shots, but with our length and rebounding ability, we should get a nice chunk of offense from second chance points. This is where Shakur can shine. And Mbacke. When you turn it over 24 times, you don’t have a chance to make 24 first shots, and obviously no second chance opportunities. SDSU made numerous NCAA tournaments this way. Against them, forcing a miss wasn’t the biggest battle: it was securing the board. We need to be that team.
I’ll say this though: after MSUB, there were questions about offense AND defense. Tonight wasn’t perfect by any means, but I think we all saw that the crew can play defense at a higher level than last year. The first defensive half effort was fantastic. Play two halves remotely like that even with the anemic offense we’ll rack up some wins.
Not throwing in the towel yet.
With those key pieces gone, you’ve gotta make up about 45 points per game just to keep us where we were last year. Now I think most would agree that the expectation was that we would be better on defense, and with a better defense, you may not need to recoup all those points. However, you certainly have to get points from somewhere, even if you don’t replace all 45 that left.
For me at least, here’s roughly what I had predicted:
- Noah gets 10 ppg
- Hamilton gets 10 ppg
- Trey gets 6 ppg
- Mbacke goes +4 ppg (6)
- Shakur goes +1 ppg (16)
- Hardy goes +5 ppg (10)
- Beck goes +2 ppg (9)
This is not the whole team, but just how we’d recoup most of the 45 we lost. The predicted increases total 38. From that group in total: 67 ppg.
Tonight, here’s what we got:
- Noah: 3
- Hamilton: 0
- Trey: DNP
- Mbacke: 8
- Shakur: 12
- Hardy: 6
- Beck: 4
That’s 33. About 1/2 of what we need from that group of guys. Magically add those 33 points and you’re looking at a 83-61 victory tonight. I think most of us would be pleased with that, no?
I could draw this out further. Take away the expected production of Hamilton/Trey. That wipes out 16 ppg. Hypothetically gives us a 67-61 victory tonight. A lot tighter, but at least it’s a win.
But to have all of those guys perform so poorly tonight (minus Mbacke... a consensus bright spot so far) was a recipe for disaster.
We’ll have to see how this all plays out. Does Bryce acclimate to this level and become even a 6-7 ppg contributer? Trey? Can Beck/Hardy at least replicate last year’s numbers, or maybe progress a bit? Lots of questions.
One thing we MUST eliminate are the turnovers. So so so sloppy tonight. This team will miss plenty of shots, but with our length and rebounding ability, we should get a nice chunk of offense from second chance points. This is where Shakur can shine. And Mbacke. When you turn it over 24 times, you don’t have a chance to make 24 first shots, and obviously no second chance opportunities. SDSU made numerous NCAA tournaments this way. Against them, forcing a miss wasn’t the biggest battle: it was securing the board. We need to be that team.
I’ll say this though: after MSUB, there were questions about offense AND defense. Tonight wasn’t perfect by any means, but I think we all saw that the crew can play defense at a higher level than last year. The first defensive half effort was fantastic. Play two halves remotely like that even with the anemic offense we’ll rack up some wins.
Not throwing in the towel yet.
