Caesars Over Under
- Thread starter UNLV Rebel1
- Start date
3.5?
That seems like a low number. Honestly that feels like the books baiting you to bet the over...
I would have thought 4.5 maybe even 5.
There are three games the Rebels should win. SUU, Hawaii because the home teams have had the better of it, and SJSU.
There are 5 toss up games. Win all the toss up games and you are looking at an 8 win season...
Books are basically saying the Rebs will lose all the toss up games?
SUU- W
ARK STATE - Toss Up
Northwestern- L
Wyoming - Toss Up
Boise- L
SDSU - Toss Up
Vandy - L
Fresno - L
CSU - Toss up
Hawaii - W
SJSU - W
Reno - Toss up.
Any gamblers out there want to weigh in on that line or give their take?
I would think over too...
Question... can you parlay win totals?
4 team parlay picking totals would be a fun bet.
Question... can you parlay win totals?
4 team parlay picking totals would be a fun bet.
Yessir! Easy Money. Year 1- 3 Wins, Year 2 - 4 Wins, Year 3 - 5 Wins and year 4 to be determined but, If the trend under CTS holds true you can expect at least 6 Wins this Year hopefully more.
![[smoke]](http://l.yimg.com/j/assets/img/emoticons/classic/smokin.r191677.gif "Cool [smoke]")
Yessir! Easy Money. Year 1- 3 Wins, Year 2 - 4 Wins, Year 3 - 5 Wins and year 4 to be determined but, If the trend under CTS holds true you can expect at least 6 Wins this Year hopefully more.
Not to be that guy but.
Year 1 - 3 wins
Year 2 - 4 wins
Year 3 - 5 wins
Year 4 - 4 wins
Year 5 - ?
That's the concern.
Last year was a favorable schedule, it was year four, these were his guys and there was regression.
Lol, No worries maybe just wishful thinking on my part!
Who knows man.
I can honestly see anything from 4 wins to 8 wins.
Looking at the schedule and trying to be unbiased I keep landing on 5...
The lines are going to be low for everyone because they are based on balancing the bets. I think most people outside of Las Vegas expect UNLV to win very few games, while it is more likely people in Las Vegas expect a higher win total!
Seems right..
Get early money on over. Line gets to like 4.5...
Then watch where the 'smart' money goes...
Lines vary by region so Caesars is hoping to get two-way action locally. I’m not sure what books in other parts of the country, as well as off-shore books, have us at but this may be as optimistic as they get since human nature has people, especially fans, favoring the over.
I’m gonna get screwed because I’m always slightly optimistic and expect downright mediocrity and we come up short. Still, I think 3.5 is way off.
It's an odd line.
3.5 ?
They won 4 last year.
Schedule is tougher but the team should be improved.
They have 3 'winnable' games in their first 4.
I think even the most skeptical probably think 4 is the floor and between 5-7 wins are a possiblity.
Arkansas State is at 7.5 for a comparison.
I saw one line at 4 for UNLV.
Daaaa. I have never seen a football team win a half of a game. 6 - 6 is doable.
It definitely is...
It's the crazy thing about this season.
I could make a decent case they could win 7 maybe even 8 if they got a break or two.
Last year I expected to see 7 wins. They fell flat on their face, but came on to win 2 of the last 3 games against good teams. In the middle of the two wins was a complete collapse on a blowout win verse Hawaii. In other words, I have no clue if the team that played most of the year or the team that beat SDSU and unr will show up?
The last couple of years I expected us to win 6+ games but the teams completely break down at unexpected times not to mention our QB can't make the easy throws to keep defenses honest.
If Armani can just do that, we have a chance. Hoping he got some offseason help. I know nothing about him but does he seem like a guy to go the extra mile and do that? From the limited spring reports, it didn't sound like he improved much
Accuracy is the issue and probably always will be to some extent.
Not saying he can't get better, I just dont think he will be a 60%+ guy.
But he doesn't have to be super accurate. Just better.
Make some easy throws on 1st down. Stay ahead of the chains. Hit the occasional deep route. Keep defenses honest.
It's not like he puts the ball in danger a lot. He makes pretty decent reads. He just misses guys to often.
Without question the Reno game was the best of his career.
Bottle that up. And the defense improves, Rebs go bowling..
As for Spring. He looked a little better. Still to many misses but for the most part he was making solid reads.
Not sure on his work ethic. He seems engaged with coaches. Doesn't pout when he makes a mistake. From what I could tell he puts in the work and wants to improve..
Easy throws? Hit Tyleek a few times per game on short ones with some space, let him do the rest. You don’t need 30 yards of air under the ball to grab good yardage.
Agree.
Downside. Tyleek had better numbers with Gilliam. That has to change.
As well as Rebs run the ball, Armani will see favorable coverages on 1st/2nd down. Hit that 5 yard out. Pound the rock on 2nd and 3rd if needed wash rinse repeat..
Not saying he did a good job finding Tyleek - but was Tyleek even on the field much during the first half of the season? If he was, he rarely found him and Max found him a lot more. But I could have sworn he wasn’t on the field for all that many snaps early in the season.
He wasn't as much you are correct there.
I should have clarified by saying Tyleek put up his numbers with Maxx.
Hoping they build some chemistry. Tyleek has big play potential.
Last month when the initial point spreads came out for this season I plugged them into my spreadsheet (since there is historically a strong correlation between PS and probability of winning).
Based on those point spreads my projected win total was 4.6.
Opponent Spread Percent Chance of UNLV Win
SUU -26 99.0
Ark St 3 42.6
Northwestern 19 2.7
Wyoming 4.5 36.9
Boise St 13.5 16.5
Vandy 15 12.6
Fresno St 12 18.4
SDSU 6 33.6
CSU 0 50.0
Hawaii 2.5 45.8
SJSU -7.5 73.0
UNR 7 29.7
Projected Win Total 4.6
Three games may be "winnable" in the first four, but three would be overachieving. Numbers say 1.81 wins in first four games - so expected 2-2 record.
The next four games get tougher, and the numbers say 2.6 wins total after 8 games, so 2-6 or 3-5 record at that point - which would mean looking at finishing 4-0 or 3-1 to go 6-6 and make the bowl game.
The numbers project 2-2 in the final four games of the season. But those are hardest to project, not just because they are furthest out but because that point of the season we are either making a push for a bowl or the team and fans could be checked out for the year.
So the overachieving needs to start early. As UNLV fans we are not used to overachieving.
Based on those point spreads my projected win total was 4.6.
Opponent Spread Percent Chance of UNLV Win
SUU -26 99.0
Ark St 3 42.6
Northwestern 19 2.7
Wyoming 4.5 36.9
Boise St 13.5 16.5
Vandy 15 12.6
Fresno St 12 18.4
SDSU 6 33.6
CSU 0 50.0
Hawaii 2.5 45.8
SJSU -7.5 73.0
UNR 7 29.7
Projected Win Total 4.6
Three games may be "winnable" in the first four, but three would be overachieving. Numbers say 1.81 wins in first four games - so expected 2-2 record.
The next four games get tougher, and the numbers say 2.6 wins total after 8 games, so 2-6 or 3-5 record at that point - which would mean looking at finishing 4-0 or 3-1 to go 6-6 and make the bowl game.
The numbers project 2-2 in the final four games of the season. But those are hardest to project, not just because they are furthest out but because that point of the season we are either making a push for a bowl or the team and fans could be checked out for the year.
So the overachieving needs to start early. As UNLV fans we are not used to overachieving.
We aren't use to normal 'achieving' much less any overachieving.
Agree. I think they go 2-2. There are three games in that stretch that they should be competitive or 'winnable'.
Semantics on my part here but...
If beating Ark State/SUU at home and Wyoming on the road is considered 'overachieving' then little progress has been made in 5 years.
I get your point and what the numbers are saying though...
Beating SUU at home is not really achieving anything. It must happen.
Ark St is really one of those matchups that favors home team either way. We were expected to lose last year on the road (even though we should've beat them in the end), and this year we should expect a win at home.
Beating Wyo should be considered overachieving due to it being on the road against a traditionally tough team. At home, it would be an expected win, but going on the road is usually difficult against those mountain teams.
IF this team starts the year 3-1, it should set up a good year that meets expectations.
IF they start 2-2, it will be an uphill battle to reach our the end goal of getting bowl eligible.
IF they start 1-3, the end result of the season will be inevitable, IMO. CTS and UNLV might as well start looking towards the next chapter.
IF they start 0-4, CTS better just stay in Laramie. The weather is cooler there.
I think out of the first 4 games, the Ark St game is really the key. Win/lose, that will set the season on a certain trajectory.
This will feel like a contradiction on my part, but it falls in line with how I think the team will finish 5-7 but 7-5 seems possible.
Ark State game was close last year. Rebs had every chance to win it.
That said, Ark State has been to a bowl game for at least the last 5 years. They've averaged 7 wins in that time. UNLV is nowhere near that type of consistency.
Ark State lost a 3/4 year starter at QB. But they've been consistently good and seem to reload every year.
I can see why Ark State are favored. But I view it as a game UNLV has a legitimate shot to win being at home. It's a toss up in my mind.
I think it comes down to how you view the word 'overachieving'.
Wyoming has been a middling team in the MWC.
If this is Sanchez' best team, his best recruiting class and his deepest team, I don't think beating Wyoming, even on the road is overachieving per say but more where you should be in year 5. (Even taking into account our dismal history)
Totally agree on how they start.
3-1 would be huge. Lots of momentum heading into a home clash vs Boise. Sam Boyd should be packed. Great atmosphere. Actual 'homefield'. Even going 1-3 over next four would put you at 4-4 and very much in the bowl hunt.
2-2 and like you said it gets real dicey.
1-3....I think it becomes not if, but when will Sanchez be replaced.
"Overachieving" is I guess a poor term.
"Exceeding oddsmakers' expectations" is what I mean. Mainly my point is related to how the team does relative to what the oddsmakers expect, not what the fans expect.
"Exceeding oddsmakers' expectations" is what I mean. Mainly my point is related to how the team does relative to what the oddsmakers expect, not what the fans expect.
No you're good. I understood the point you were making.
Like I said there were some semantics on my part in my post..
The numbers are interesting for sure.
