The Caesars over under is 3.5 wins this fall.
I might be willing to bet the farm on the over.
Yessir! Easy Money. Year 1- 3 Wins, Year 2 - 4 Wins, Year 3 - 5 Wins and year 4 to be determined but, If the trend under CTS holds true you can expect at least 6 Wins this Year hopefully more.![]()
Not to be that guy but.
Year 1 - 3 wins
Year 2 - 4 wins
Year 3 - 5 wins
Year 4 - 4 wins
Year 5 - ?
That's the concern.
Last year was a favorable schedule, it was year four, these were his guys and there was regression.
Lol, No worries maybe just wishful thinking on my part!
The lines are going to be low for everyone because they are based on balancing the bets. I think most people outside of Las Vegas expect UNLV to win very few games, while it is more likely people in Las Vegas expect a higher win total!
I’m gonna get screwed because I’m always slightly optimistic and expect downright mediocrity and we come up short. Still, I think 3.5 is way off.Lines vary by region so Caesars is hoping to get two-way action locally. I’m not sure what books in other parts of the country, as well as off-shore books, have us at but this may be as optimistic as they get since human nature has people, especially fans, favoring the over.
I’m gonna get screwed because I’m always slightly optimistic and expect downright mediocrity and we come up short. Still, I think 3.5 is way off.
I’m gonna get screwed because I’m always slightly optimistic and expect downright mediocrity and we come up short. Still, I think 3.5 is way off.
Daaaa. I have never seen a football team win a half of a game. 6 - 6 is doable.
Sounds good. I'll bet your farm, too. How many hectares ya got?I might be willing to bet the farm on the over.
It definitely is...
It's the crazy thing about this season.
I could make a decent case they could win 7 maybe even 8 if they got a break or two.
The last couple of years I expected us to win 6+ games but the teams completely break down at unexpected times not to mention our QB can't make the easy throws to keep defenses honest.
If Armani can just do that, we have a chance. Hoping he got some offseason help. I know nothing about him but does he seem like a guy to go the extra mile and do that? From the limited spring reports, it didn't sound like he improved much
Easy throws? Hit Tyleek a few times per game on short ones with some space, let him do the rest. You don’t need 30 yards of air under the ball to grab good yardage.Accuracy is the issue and probably always will be to some extent.
Not saying he can't get better, I just dont think he will be a 60%+ guy.
But he doesn't have to be super accurate. Just better.
Make some easy throws on 1st down. Stay ahead of the chains. Hit the occasional deep route. Keep defenses honest.
It's not like he puts the ball in danger a lot. He makes pretty decent reads. He just misses guys to often.
Without question the Reno game was the best of his career.
Bottle that up. And the defense improves, Rebs go bowling..
As for Spring. He looked a little better. Still to many misses but for the most part he was making solid reads.
Not sure on his work ethic. He seems engaged with coaches. Doesn't pout when he makes a mistake. From what I could tell he puts in the work and wants to improve..
Easy throws? Hit Tyleek a few times per game on short ones with some space, let him do the rest. You don’t need 30 yards of air under the ball to grab good yardage.
Not saying he did a good job finding Tyleek - but was Tyleek even on the field much during the first half of the season? If he was, he rarely found him and Max found him a lot more. But I could have sworn he wasn’t on the field for all that many snaps early in the season.Agree.
Downside. Tyleek had better numbers with Gilliam. That has to change.
As well as Rebs run the ball, Armani will see favorable coverages on 1st/2nd down. Hit that 5 yard out. Pound the rock on 2nd and 3rd if needed wash rinse repeat..
Not saying he did a good job finding Tyleek - but was Tyleek even on the field much during the first half of the season? If he was, he rarely found him and Max found him a lot more. But I could have sworn he wasn’t on the field for all that many snaps early in the season.
They have 3 'winnable' games in their first 4.
I think even the most skeptical probably think 4 is the floor and between 5-7 wins are a possibility.
Last month when the initial point spreads came out for this season I plugged them into my spreadsheet (since there is historically a strong correlation between PS and probability of winning).
Based on those point spreads my projected win total was 4.6.
Opponent Spread Percent Chance of UNLV Win
SUU -26 99.0
Ark St 3 42.6
Northwestern 19 2.7
Wyoming 4.5 36.9
Boise St 13.5 16.5
Vandy 15 12.6
Fresno St 12 18.4
SDSU 6 33.6
CSU 0 50.0
Hawaii 2.5 45.8
SJSU -7.5 73.0
UNR 7 29.7
Projected Win Total 4.6
Three games may be "winnable" in the first four, but three would be overachieving. Numbers say 1.81 wins in first four games - so expected 2-2 record.
The next four games get tougher, and the numbers say 2.6 wins total after 8 games, so 2-6 or 3-5 record at that point - which would mean looking at finishing 4-0 or 3-1 to go 6-6 and make the bowl game.
The numbers project 2-2 in the final four games of the season. But those are hardest to project, not just because they are furthest out but because that point of the season we are either making a push for a bowl or the team and fans could be checked out for the year.
So the overachieving needs to start early. As UNLV fans we are not used to overachieving.
Beating SUU at home is not really achieving anything. It must happen.We aren't use to normal 'achieving' much less any overachieving.
Agree. I think they go 2-2. There are three games in that stretch that they should be competitive or 'winnable'.
Semantics on my part here but...
If beating Ark State/SUU at home and Wyoming on the road is considered 'overachieving' then little progress has been made in 5 years.
I get your point and what the numbers are saying though...
Ark St is really one of those matchups that favors home team either way. We were expected to lose last year on the road (even though we should've beat them in the end), and this year we should expect a win at home.
"Overachieving" is I guess a poor term.
"Exceeding oddsmakers' expectations" is what I mean. Mainly my point is related to how the team does relative to what the oddsmakers expect, not what the fans expect.