Arizona Bowl
- Thread starter bcvegaspt
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Do you think we need to cover the spread? Kinda hard covering that spread without two of our best WRs
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Looking at the schedule UNLV has a good chance of winning 8 or more games this season which could put them in a great position. UNLV is either favored or close in all but the Notre Dame game based on ESPN!
A lot of the preseason chalk up as a loss games look a lot different now.
SDSU has played a decent schedule but hasn't looked good vs lesser opponents.
Fresno has injury issue at QB.
Air Force will still be tough. That offense is really difficult. What makes me nervous about it, is our secondary has given up big plays and while AF doesn't throw a ton, you can count on them taking 1 or 2 shots a game off play action.
San Jose might be favorite in conference right now..
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I've heard that early money came in on UNLV but since the line has moved in UNM's direction.
if the line has dropped to 14 1/2 take it, UNM is total sewer, they have no offense at all, Hawaii is worse then they are.
UNM's offense is bad. Really bad.
Defense has actually been pretty good. Especially considering how much they are on the field because of offensive struggles.
Their coach was a candidate for UNLV job. Chose to go to his Alma Mater.
Don't be surprised if he gets a look at a better job even if he struggles to get to .500 at UNM. People realize what a tough job that is now.
Rebs should cover, but I won't be surprised if it takes into the 3rd quarter for them to pull away.
Looking at the ESPN game matchup predictor (don’t take a OT of stock in it, but find it interesting), UNLV is strong favorites against UNM, Hawaii & Nevada (above 75%). They are slight underdogs to San Jose St, San Diego St and Fresno St (45-49%). Air Force they give us a 38% chance and ND only 7%. Those percentages were much different a few weeks ago. I will be very interested in seeing how they do in those 50/50 games. Get one or 2 of those and it will be our best season in over 20 years.
Air Force is a true wild card. Not sure if Hayward has much experience against the option, but I think we have good personnel to execute against it if our game plan is sound. We’re smack dab in the middle of a tough stretch for them too. Navy, Utah St before and Boise St and Army after. Would certainly help if we catch them in a lull.
Agree..
Air Forces offense just makes things tough. They chew up clock. Limit possessions.
Air Force being up 10 with 10 minutes to go is like other teams being up 17. (If that makes sense).
AF worries me more than any other MW team.
SDSU's offense has been anemic.
Fresno's QB is hurt (not sure severity/length).
San Jose plays solid defense and has enough offense.
Rebs will position themselves nicely for bowl eligibility if they get past UNM.
7 possibly 8 wins are realistic at this point..
Gotta take care of UNM Friday though.
Air Force's brand of triple option is especially brutal with the amount of pulls/power game they put into it. Their lineman are mostly undersized but are quicker and well coached. The use a lot of backside cuts and crack backs to punish chasing the pulling OL if you're not right on his hip when he goes. Then they counter into those gaps that pulling voided and instead fire the fullback into voids so it really makes you overthink as a DL. And that's just between the tackles. The pitch option game is also very well executed. Then on top of that they go tempo to again take advantage of their smaller lineman who have great cardio.
Not only do you have to stay home and protect your gap, but you have to have a clock in your head that tells you, okay it's been 1.5 seconds, they aren't going A gap, find the ball and pursue. and for god's sake watch the wing T reverse from the Hback.
You need a really good front 7 and you need your DBs to be sure tacklers to have a shot. I don't think we're good enough to do it this season, though our front 7 has been pretty decent. You need to force their offense into 3rd and 6+ and then take away the perimeter run and play action pass.
Not only do you have to stay home and protect your gap, but you have to have a clock in your head that tells you, okay it's been 1.5 seconds, they aren't going A gap, find the ball and pursue. and for god's sake watch the wing T reverse from the Hback.
You need a really good front 7 and you need your DBs to be sure tacklers to have a shot. I don't think we're good enough to do it this season, though our front 7 has been pretty decent. You need to force their offense into 3rd and 6+ and then take away the perimeter run and play action pass.
Personally, I wouldn't bet on this, esepcially giving up 16 points.
UNM averages less than 20 points a game agianst them, considering they gave up 38 last week to LSU, that is saying something.
Their offense is absolutely atrocious, BUT we do like to give up the big play from time to time. Chances are we will have a decently comfortable lead in the second half which would be amenable to giving a score or 2. Not too dissimilar to last week.
I think 2 TDs or greater is a lot of points for a team like this. I fully expect to win and we could blow them out without me being surprised, but statistically that seems like a tough cover.
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Excellent summary.
Much like Army, what AF runs isn't a true triple option anymore like the old wishbone, or power I.
There are still option elements to it, but its morphed into more of a read option.
A lot is predicated on the FB. If AF is gouging you for 4-5 yards a pop with the FB you are in for a long day. It opens up all the counters they run, the QB follows, and finally the outside option and play action pass.
On its surface it looks so basic, and seems like it should be easy to stop. In reality it's an extremely diverse offense with multiple runs out of similiar looking sets.
That's the one game that really makes me nervous (aside from Notre Dame) on schedule.
Good news is that our front 7 is the strength of the defense. Hopefully we get our starting DT back by then. and the running D has been one of the best in the conference.
Bad news, UNT absolutely gashed us on the ground at times that game, especially with running tempo. Picking up the pace and forcing a base defense hurt us bad and you bet AFA will try to exploit that.
The unknown? Coach Heyward's familiarity with these types of offenses and the best way to defend them. He is a younger guy , though I'm sure he has some experience. But enough? Wyoming did a very good job, and we may have similar personnel strengths which it good. I like our LB crew for gap assignments, but you never know.
Bad news, UNT absolutely gashed us on the ground at times that game, especially with running tempo. Picking up the pace and forcing a base defense hurt us bad and you bet AFA will try to exploit that.
The unknown? Coach Heyward's familiarity with these types of offenses and the best way to defend them. He is a younger guy , though I'm sure he has some experience. But enough? Wyoming did a very good job, and we may have similar personnel strengths which it good. I like our LB crew for gap assignments, but you never know.
In my Lee Corso voice, not so fast my friend, we have to win tonight first!
