A Different Perspective

[cbuz75]

It seems like the general consensus is that this team will win 2-3 games. That less wins is possible, but more than 3 wins is out of the question. I dunno, I just don't buy it. Let's take a quick look back before we look forward.

2014-15 Season:

While the Rebels went 2-11 last season, and the W/L is all that matters and coulda-woulda-shoulda means nothing, if we are going to predict future failure based on past failure, let's look a little closer at those failures to see if the Rebs were as bad as 2-11 looks.

Wins:
Northern Colorado
Fresno State

"No Doubt About It" Losses:
Arizona
Houston
BYU
San Jose State
Utah State
Air Force

"Look Beyond the Scoreboard" Losses:
San Diego State
unr
Northern Illinois

"How Did We Lose" Losses:
Hawaii
New Mexico

For the sake of brevity, I won't go into my all of the reasons for the classifications above. Look at box scores, recaps, and stats to get a better idea where I'm coming from (e.g. we often moved the ball well, and couldn't put the ball in the endzone or had a crushing turnover at a bad time).

I'll also say that I always felt last season that adding the Houston game because of the APR debacle really hurt us (literally) last season. After nearly pulling off a comeback upset in the Northern Illinois game, it seemed like a bye week was just what the team needed. Instead, we gave up the bye week to add the Houston game. We got pummeled on the scoreboard and multiple players left the game hobbled.

I would argue that the Rebels were more like a 4-win team last year than a 2-win team. With that said, I don't see any reason to think that we will take a step back. IMO, the improvement on the sidelines (coaches), team unity, enthusiasm, energy, etc. makes up for the player losses from last season. So let's look at this year's schedule.

2015-16 Season:

In classifying the teams on the schedule, I am going to try and take a realistic perspective (neither optimistic nor pessimistic). I'm an optimist, so I think we can compete in every game this season, but I'll try and mask that below.

We're Not There Yet:
UCLA
Michigan
Boise State

Long Shot:
Colorado State

Should Win:
Idaho State
Hawaii

Could Go Either Way:
@ Northern Illinois
@ unr
vs. San Jose State
@ Fresno State
vs. San Diego State
@ Wyoming

While no win is guaranteed, I don't think we lose to Idaho State or Hawaii (if nothing else, it seems like the home team has won this matchup for as long as I can remember, and we play Hawaii in Vegas). So assuming we get those two wins, we have six other winnable games. Is it crazy to think that we can win 2, 3, or 4 of those games? The margin between wins and losses was slim last year, I think that the improvements we've made in the offseason help us win more of these games than last year.

My prediction: 5-7; with wins against San Jose, Reno, and Wyoming (+Hawaii / Idaho St).

 

[willlevi]

I finally made it out today. I like to be low key under the radar to relax and watch but a few people caught me so I wasn't really able to focus on individual positions as much as I would like but it was a good observation.
For me, last season was a 5 win team that landed in a two win reality due to many circumstances with turnovers from the quarterback position and a lack of a #2 option at the position being a major key. Not having top weapons Shaq Murray-Lawrence, Marcus Sullivan and Devante Davis available at the same time beyond the last two games of the season all year also plays a role.
That said, this is a different team with a completely new staff and philosophy than the previous staff throwing last season nearly completely out the door.

My observation from today:
Lexington Thomas is fast but not a very big guy. He is more of a cut and go guy than a true elusive playmaker. He made the defensive group facing him look pretty rough early a few times running through some huge holes untouched. Hard to say if he can do the same versus a quality run defense but the speed he showcased was impressive. I'm hoping he becomes a strong blocker so he can play more snaps.
Xavier Campbell is a big guy but he power runner with solid speed. He is also a developing blocker so it will be interesting to see his role this year.
Whitely appears an average speed type of guy but he has the experience as well as being a more trustworthy blocker.
Altee Tenpenny seemed to frustrate a staff member with post play effort and that carried the rest of practice. It didn't appear that he was injured but you never saw a lot of great effort out of him this practice
The backs as a group seemed to struggle with short passes in the 11 on 11 session but hopefully they will improve thought camp. All the player bring limitation but Whitley is more trustworthy so it wouldn't be a surprise the freshmen see limited time on the field especially early.

Decker is the #1 quarterback but I don't know if he excels in the new offense. There were some bad tosses that went the other way during the passing session and not a lot of downfield passes. The defense was able to get pressure on the passer and the offense struggled to string good series together due to drops and a few errant balls.
Behind Decker, Palandech isn't a true passer and I can't see him stringing consistent passes if used an extended period of time. Thomson also struggled to connect during the passing session and doesn't look ready for prime time either.
The receivers are physically talented but production is dependent on efficient passing which will be a question mark with the routes and style preferred during this session.

The offensive line was solid but susceptible to breakdowns. They won't blow you away in the run game and they need to be more consistent versus the pass rush.

Defensively there were good plays but, like the offense, there is the question mark of being consistent. There were stops defensively and a nice tip that was picked off but the good plays were more bad offensive execution rather than great defense. The diagnosis of run plays were a step behind and there were a few plays early where the play wasn't made with the ball in the air that lead to big plays versus the first D.
I like the build of the freshman defenders that were out but no one really made an impression during the physical sessions. They are in the learning process however and Wily displays good quickness for a big guy but none of the new guys stood out as being great defeating blocks.

Overall, it's the third practice with a lot of technique and precision to be taught in the coming weeks. Hopefully the players buckle down in the coming weeks to improve efficiency. Decker has to stay healthy to allow this team to be competitive. I won't make predictions but I don't feel this team is ready to be competitive on the field yet.
I think last season and the team before were much better as far as balance of experience and talent. 2016 has a softer schedule on paper so this year is a developmental season for me.

 

[spudreb]

At 2.5 win total, give me the over all day. In fact, I think I'll have to make a quick trip down to William "Thrill" Hill in Jackpot and put a buck on it!