2019 UNLV Betting Lines
- Thread starter RebNReno
- Start date
How big is that Ark st game? It is a very winnable game. Ark St has lost a lot of players from last year...
Something is up here.
A few games that stand out...
Rebs played Ark State pretty tough on the road. Not to put it on one play, but if Presley doesn't fumble the punt inside the 10 they have a legit shot to win that game.
Ark State loses a 3/4 year starter at QB and I think some core defensive guys and they are favored on the road?
SDSU who UNLV beat on the road is a TD favorite away from home?
Hawaii is an early favorite?
I'm not super high on the team this year like some, but realistically this feels like a 5-7 to 7-5 team if they get a few breaks.
These lines make them look like a 3-9 team and 5-7 with a few breaks.
We talked about it.
Ark State and Wyoming probably determine the season. Almost have to win both.
That line for the Ark State game really surprises me considering the players they lost.
These are early lines also. Did you see the preview from College Football News? Its a good read...
I also think the Ark st game is very critical because it is the 2nd game of the year. You always want to start the year 2-0. Just for momentum....
Did I miss something?
According the Odds sheet we are Only Favored in 1 game and are 10 point Dogs on average per game! Smh
Did I miss something?
They are a push at CSU. I think they will win more games.
I thought it was easy money last year against those bums too and somehow UNLV lost.
Lol, I'm so used to us losing to the Utah schools I thought the 1st game was Utah St. for whatever reason. Who curb stomped us by 31 last year, Not Southern Utah ! Smh
Well that sure isn't a good sign. The bookies usually know more than the rest of us. Hopefully Sanchez can rally the team and defy odds this year.
Its hard to argue against those lines too much at this point. Hopefully we get better and make some loyal Rebel fans some money. But recent history dictates those lines.
It would help to win both, particularly since they are early in the season. I hate to call any road game a "must win" based on our track record, and Wyo is in Laramie.
But to get to six wins I see it this way:
Must wins: SUU and SJSU (both in LV)
Must go 4-2: AWAY: Wyo, CSU, UNR, HOME: Hawaii, Ark St, SDSU
These are our 8 "winnable" games. To get to 6 wins this team must overachieve, which is something Rebel fans aren't used to. I will be more optimistic if Grimes and Ali-Walsh are granted eligibility (which should solidify the offense) and a grad transfer can magically appear to help deepen the D-line or the defensive secondary.
Exactly.
They have to start 3-1.
That stretch of Boise/SDSU/Fresno and Vandy is brutal.
You also don't want to be 5-6 headed to Reno and playing for bowl eligibility. Last thing you want is to give a rival more motivation.
I think we'll know after the Wyoming game how the season will play out...
I see what you are saying about being 5-6, but in the other hand having 5 wins at that point may already be overachieving, and that's with Reno left which is one of our more winnable games to begin with.
Being favored in 2 out 12 games isn’t very promising this season. Tony’s teams have given up an average of over 30 points a game the last 4 years...
You know what's funny.
Is we are looking at the schedule thinking ok our wins are:
Hawaii, Wyoming, CSU, Maybe SDSU, Reno and SJSU..
I'm pretty sure on every message board in the MWC we're probably checked off in their win column...Or viewed as a 'winnable' game.
That’s whats sad, actually.
I’m an “optimist” on the boards and I see about 3, maybe 4, wins from that group. The other games on the schedule I hope we get compensated well for since they are going to get embarrassing.
Don’t ask me which 3 or 4 we will win since I could make an argument either way for those teams. I just know that we always lose some we shouldn’t and pull out one miracle (against a decent team, not a top program like Boise, Northwestern, etc).
But yet with all of this, just thinking about our next coach is practically forbidden around here.
Hey, I want Sanchez to succeed, I really do. I like his fire, his work ethic, his embracing of Vegas and the community. He has done better than expected, at least in my eyes.
Just have to look at the reality of the situation. The betting odds are pretty much that. That's where we are right now. We are a likely 2-4 win team against a pretty good, not killer, schedule. We couldn't get a bowl birth with a Menzies-soft schedule last season. Even with some significant improvement this year, I don't know man.
And then there is DRF's "ultimatum". Is it fair or for the right reasons? Probably not. But it's probably the right thing to do, though maybe not publically. We have a once in a lifetime opportunity with the new stadium. There will be a very temporary bump in interest/attendance. We need something to get excited about. Another bowlless season won't cut it. The school needs fans at football games.
That is about what the point spreads you posted last week indicated the win total should be for UNLV. The number of games teams are favored in does not translate to the number of expected wins. You can't even count games like SJSU as an expected win, just a 73% chance of a win.
When those point spreads came out last week I plugged them into the "historical" (I use https://www.bettingtalk.com/win-probability-percentage-point-spread-nfl-nba/) point spread to winning % calculator and it projected to 4.6 wins for UNLV:
Opponent Spread Percent Chance of UNLV Win
SUU -26 99.0
Ark St 3 42.6
Northwestern 19 2.7
Wyoming 4.5 36.9
Boise St 13.5 16.5
Vandy 15 12.6
Fresno St 12 18.4
SDSU 6 33.6
CSU 0 50.0
Hawaii 2.5 45.8
SJSU -7.5 73.0
UNR 7 29.7
Projected Win Total 4.6
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OK, posted it to Twitter since I can't see a way to attach an image directly here, and the spacing gets mangled. This is more readable:
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