Win remainder of games and we move inside the bubble
- Thread starter heatermatt
- Start date
They'd be in the conversation that's for sure. They'd probably have to get all the way to the championship game to even have an outside shot. the Arizona win would help, also finishing the season strong and the tough overall SOS would be positives.
It is possible. Even if we lose the first game of the conference tourney that would make us 22-10 overall and 13-5 in conference. We would also pick up wins against SDSU, Colorado St, and New Mexico. Obviously, any wins in the tournament tournament would help the cause. In the end it doesn't matter because winning out is extremely unlikely.
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Lose the first game in the tourney and aint no way in hell they are even on, let alone inside, the bubble.
----The unfortunate truth of conference cannibalism... There isnt a dominate team in conference that beating would raise our profile high enough, there arent enough good OOC wins from the remainder of the conference to provide any boost, and unless we are lifting the trophy on March 14th we arent making it in...
The smallest percentile chance that we'd have otherwise is to run table, win conference regular season crown and either lose in championship having beaten a CSU, SDSU, or UNM in the quarters and Semis... which might provide enough juice with the UNLV name to bump into the dance...
Oh we would be... if we won the rest, then just went 1-1 in the tourney, that would put us at what, 23-10 and a 13-game winning streak to end the season. I think that would put us in.
But the odds of that happening are probably less than 1 percent, seriously. So why even bother speculating on that? I guess bigger miracles have happened in sports, but come on...
But the odds of that happening are probably less than 1 percent, seriously. So why even bother speculating on that? I guess bigger miracles have happened in sports, but come on...
I agree. Nobody said we would be in with that result, but it would be possible. Especially when you consider our rpi would be good, our strength of schedule would be good, and our last ten record would be good... all things they look at.
I don't see how with all of those things going our way it would be possible. And of course it depends what the competition is around the country.
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I don't see how with all of those things going our way it would be possible. And of course it depends what the competition is around the country.
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This thread can't be serious. No way does this team win out. For arguments sake, if hell froze over and we did win the remainder of our regular season games, we would have to at least get to the MWT championship game to even be considered for an at-large. Not happening. Gotta win the MWT to get into the dance. It has been this scenario for almost a month now, and that is not going to change.
Thats not entirely true... We are the only team in the league with enough OOC umph to push an at large bid as Regular season champs if we then flopped in MWC tournament. That was part of the reason why we were even in the at large discussion as early as 2nd week of January before wheels came off...
First, SDSU and CSU both have done enough in the OOC to warrant an at-large bid as Regular season champs even if they flopped in the MWT. UNLV, while we do have the AZ win, hasn't done much else. You now include those conference losses, and I'm not sure we have enough to make it without winning out all the way to the MWT final. Like, I said, this is all irrelevant as that scenario is very unlikely.
First, I do not think UNLV will win the rest of their regular season games. Will likely lose at least 2-3 more games, and possibly 4.
Second, UNLV is not mentioned at all in the first edition of "Bubble Watch" on ESPN.... The 2 MWC terams mentione are CSU and SDSU.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/nitty-gritty-report
Third, in the most recent CBSSportsline RPI rankings, UNLV has an RPI of 103. Hard to see the RPI improving enough to earn at an-large bid. The SOS is 81st. Not bad, but not great either. And, remaining games against Air Force(279), Fresno(335), Fresno(210), are NOT going to help the RPI... Beating Utah State(163) at home did nothing to help the SOS and little to nothing to help the RPIAnd, at this point, even getting into the NIT is questionable.
MWC does not have any great teams this year, but does have several rather evenly matched teams that are beating one another. MWC is ranked as 12th best conference in D1 at this point. MWC has only 3 teams in Top 50 of RPI.... SDSU(25), CSU(29) and Boise(45)....league co-leader Wyoming has an RPI of 78
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2015/conferencerpi
Of course, win the MWC Tournament, and all of this is moot. The tournament is at T&M. Yes, the court is changed, UNLV does not use their own locker room and MWC does as much as possible to make it a neutral setting. Still, the games are at T&M in Las Vegas, so these are essentially home games for UNLV. The tournament would be a great time for Rice and his players to show off how much they have improved over the course of the season, and shut up all of the critics. Recent history says this is unlikely, and the MWC Tourney Champions is likely to be SDSU or New Mexico.
Second, UNLV is not mentioned at all in the first edition of "Bubble Watch" on ESPN.... The 2 MWC terams mentione are CSU and SDSU.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/nitty-gritty-report
Third, in the most recent CBSSportsline RPI rankings, UNLV has an RPI of 103. Hard to see the RPI improving enough to earn at an-large bid. The SOS is 81st. Not bad, but not great either. And, remaining games against Air Force(279), Fresno(335), Fresno(210), are NOT going to help the RPI... Beating Utah State(163) at home did nothing to help the SOS and little to nothing to help the RPIAnd, at this point, even getting into the NIT is questionable.
MWC does not have any great teams this year, but does have several rather evenly matched teams that are beating one another. MWC is ranked as 12th best conference in D1 at this point. MWC has only 3 teams in Top 50 of RPI.... SDSU(25), CSU(29) and Boise(45)....league co-leader Wyoming has an RPI of 78
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2015/conferencerpi
Of course, win the MWC Tournament, and all of this is moot. The tournament is at T&M. Yes, the court is changed, UNLV does not use their own locker room and MWC does as much as possible to make it a neutral setting. Still, the games are at T&M in Las Vegas, so these are essentially home games for UNLV. The tournament would be a great time for Rice and his players to show off how much they have improved over the course of the season, and shut up all of the critics. Recent history says this is unlikely, and the MWC Tourney Champions is likely to be SDSU or New Mexico.
You weren't the same poster that said we would win the MWC Title couple weeks back were you?
And look, we're on a 3 game winning streak..... oh wait, against teams that are .571, .300 and .429 records.
If we do well rest of the season, we might get lucky and make it into the NIT. At large, never going to happen. If we get an at large bid this year I'll take you to Lawry's next time I'm in Vegas.
And look, we're on a 3 game winning streak..... oh wait, against teams that are .571, .300 and .429 records.
If we do well rest of the season, we might get lucky and make it into the NIT. At large, never going to happen. If we get an at large bid this year I'll take you to Lawry's next time I'm in Vegas.
I have NEVER said UNLV would win the MWC. In the OOC part of the schedule, I was saying this would be an up and down season, and was giving the team credit for winning close games. And, after the win over Arizona I had hope UNLV could build off that win, and possibly be near the top of the MWC.
But, I long ago stopped believing this team has much chance of finishing much better than 10-8 or 9-9 in the MWC, let alone win the conference.
I give them a 5% chance at most of winning the MWC Tournament. And, the ONLY reason I give them any chance at all is because just about anything is possible in life, and the games are played at T&M.
I'l be surprised if UNLV even make's it to the MWC Finals. let alone wins' the MWC Tournament.
This post was edited on 2/5 12:13 AM by GoRebs!
But, I long ago stopped believing this team has much chance of finishing much better than 10-8 or 9-9 in the MWC, let alone win the conference.
I give them a 5% chance at most of winning the MWC Tournament. And, the ONLY reason I give them any chance at all is because just about anything is possible in life, and the games are played at T&M.
I'l be surprised if UNLV even make's it to the MWC Finals. let alone wins' the MWC Tournament.
This post was edited on 2/5 12:13 AM by GoRebs!
The only way we win the MW tournament in my opinion is to change the lineup. Doolin is an opposing coaches wet dream. You don't have to guard him and if you need to you can trap him. He slows down the offense and doesn't let these guys run or get easy shots for them.
Pat, Vaughn, Cornish, Jelan, And Chris.
Dantley would see spot minutes and GO and Doolin Morgan rotating in. Pat would hardly ever come off the court. Cody would see minutes reduced to back up and if things started getting really sloppy. Jelan has been steady enough to earn time over Morgan and GO gives you the same as CW and being in the lineup at the same time is redundant.
I would run these guys out there see if they can click and if not your getting a jump start on next year. The Doolin experiment should be over. Morgans not really ready for quality minutes yet either.
Pat, Vaughn, Cornish, Jelan, And Chris.
Dantley would see spot minutes and GO and Doolin Morgan rotating in. Pat would hardly ever come off the court. Cody would see minutes reduced to back up and if things started getting really sloppy. Jelan has been steady enough to earn time over Morgan and GO gives you the same as CW and being in the lineup at the same time is redundant.
I would run these guys out there see if they can click and if not your getting a jump start on next year. The Doolin experiment should be over. Morgans not really ready for quality minutes yet either.
And JK has not earned quality minutes. He played well in the last game but not consistent enough to replace anybody. I like the starting line up he threw out last game.
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Cody should be shelved-maybe he can be another assistant coach? What does DW have to do to get more minutes (windmill dunk?) the guy is a +positive every time he steps on the court. As the Rebels move into February conference play it is time to show some steps forward improving as a team - it has not happened yet in league play. If the Rebels their level of play does not improve going-forward its going to be a very long month.
I think they have improved, certainly over the way they played in that stretch after the Arizona game. The problem is they have done that before and took some serious steps back. Can they keep it going?
JK had some games recently where he just kept turning it over and it was getting old because he is a senior. He was a negative factor because he wasn't scoring either.
As far as DW goes, he has played well when being in there but I am not sure if that is because Rice plays him in spots where he can't get overmatched with athleticism. That is why he played more against Air Force. It was a perfect spot for him since they played zone and don't have top athletes.
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JK had some games recently where he just kept turning it over and it was getting old because he is a senior. He was a negative factor because he wasn't scoring either.
As far as DW goes, he has played well when being in there but I am not sure if that is because Rice plays him in spots where he can't get overmatched with athleticism. That is why he played more against Air Force. It was a perfect spot for him since they played zone and don't have top athletes.
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